West Belfast


Maps and graph by Conal Kelly

detailed map

This constituency takes in the western quarter of Belfast City Council and a very small corner of Lisburn and Castlereagh District Council. The member of Parliament, since June 2011, has been Paul Maskey (SF); his predecessor was Gerry Adams (former SF leader), who was first elected in 1983, defeating the previous incumbent (Gerry Fitt, former SDLP leader but by then an Independent Socialist). Adams retained the seat in 1987 but lost it narrowly to Joe Hendron (SDLP) in 1992. However he regained it convincingly in 1997, and his successful defence of the seat in 2001, 2005 and 2010 came as little surprise. He resigned in early 2011 in order to contest a seat in the Dáil. Sinn Féin also hold four of the five Assembly seats, with the People Before Profit Alliance holding the other one. See the 1983-1992 West Belfast results and the 1973-82 West Belfast results.

In the new boundary changes, West Belfast lost a few nibbles around the edges but gains 9,000 voters from Dunmurry at one end and the Shankill at the other.

Unionist candidates were runners-up here in every assembly election since 1998, with the exception of 2003 when Diane Dodds actually won. There is now a clear prospect of a safe(ish) Unionist seat at the next Assembly election.

2024 Westminster election

Paul Maskey (SF) 21,009 (52.9%, +4.4%)
Gerry Carroll (PBP) 5,048 (12.7%, -1.4%)
Paul Doherty (SDLP) 4,318 (10.9%, +3.4%)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 4,304 (10.8%, -7.3%)
Ann McClure (TUV) 2,010 (5.1%)
Eoin Millar (Alliance) 1,077 (2.7%, -4.4%)
Gerard Herdman (Aontú) 904 (2.3%)
Ben Sharkey (UUP) 461 (1.2%, +0.3%)
Ash Jones (Green) 451 (1.1%)
Tony Mallon (Ind) 161 (0.4%)

Electorate 75,346; total vote 40,003 (53.1%); valid vote 39,743; invalid 260 (0.6%)

As with all of SF's constituencies, a consolidation of an already strong position.

In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would probably give SF three and PBP and the DUP one each.

2019 Westminster notional result on new boundaries:

SF 20,786 (48.5%)
DUP 7,789 (18.2%)
PBP 6,058 (14.1%)
SDLP 3,195 (7.4%)
Alliance 3,060 (7.1%)
Aontu 1,599 (3.7%)
UUP 370 (0.9%)
Conservative 41 (0.1%)

See spreadsheets from the 2011 Assembly election, the 2010 Westminster election, the 2007 Assembly election, the 2005 Westminster election, the 2003 Assembly election, the 2001 Westminster election, the 1998 Assembly election, the 1997 Westminster election and the 1996 Forum/talks election. See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

		DUP	UUP	Cons	APNI	PBP	SDLP	SF	Aontu
2019 actual		5,220			1,882	6,194	2,985	20,866	1,635
		13.5%			4.9%	16.0%	7.7%	53.8%	4.2%
From West Belfast	To West Belfast	4,084			1,813	6,058	2,919	20,408	1,599
From West Belfast	To North Belfast	-1071			-45	-57	-28	-195	-16
From West Belfast	To South Belfast and Mid Down	-56			-20	-67	-32	-225	-18
From West Belfast	To South Antrim	-10			-3	-11	-5	-38	-3
From North Belfast	To West Belfast	2,863			348			208
From Lagan Valley	To West Belfast	840	370	41	898		272	170
From South Belfast	To West Belfast	1			1		3		0
2019 notional		7,789	370	41	3,060	6,058	3,195	20,786	1,599
		18.2%	0.9%	0.1%	7.1%	14.1%	7.4%	48.5%	3.7%
		+4.7%	+0.9%	+0.1%	+2.3%	-1.8%	-0.2%	-5.3%	-0.5%

Recent election results

	DUP	UUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	PBPA	SDLP	SF
2024w	10.8%	1.2%	5.1%	2.7%	3.8%	12.7%	10.9%	52.9%
2022a	9.5%	1.1%	1.8%	2.1%	8.5%	7.5%	5.8%	63.7%
2019w	13.5%			4.9%	4.2%	16.0%	7.7%	53.8%
2019lg	9.8%	1.0%	2.2%	2.5%	7.3%	12.6%	6.0%	58.7%
2017w	13.4%			1.8%	0.9%	10.4%	7.0%	66.7%
2017a	10.1%	1.2%		1.9%	1.6%	14.9%	8.6%	61.8%
2016a	10.4%	1.8%		0.8%	2.4%	22.9%	7.3%	54.5%
2015w	7.8%	3.1%	2.3%	1.8%	1.7%	19.2%	9.8%	54.2%
2014lg	7.1%	2.4%	6.2%	2.0%	9.4%	5.4%	11.2%	62.5%
2011wb	6.1%	1.7%		0.5%		7.6%	13.5%	70.6%
2011a	7.5%	4.2%		1.1%	3.2%	4.8%	13.2%	66.1%
2011lg	8.6%	0.9%	1.1%	0.2%	11.0%		14.2%	65.1%
2010w	7.6%	3.1%		1.9%			16.4%	71.1%
2007a	10.8%	1.8%		0.3%	2.3%	2.3%	13.8%	68.6%
2005w	10.8%	2.5%		0.1%	2.0%		16.0%	68.6%
2005lg	8.4%	1.4%	2.5%		0.9%		19.4%	67.8%

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections. Figures for the previous boundaries are at the bottom of this page.

2022 Assembly election (five seats)

Danny Baker (SF) 9,011 (20.6%)
@Órlaithí Flynn (SF) 6,743 (15.4%)
@Pat Sheehan (SF) 6,373 (14.6%)
@Aisling Reilly (SF) 5,681 (13.0%)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 4,166 (9.5%)
@Gerry Carroll (PBP) 3,279 (7.5%)
Paul Doherty (SDLP) 2,528 (5.8%)
Gerard Herdman (Aontú) 1,753 (4.0%)
Dan Murphy (IRSP) 1,103 (2.5%)
Donnamarie Higgins (Alliance) 907 (2.1%)
Jordan Doran (TUV) 802 (1.8%)
Linsey Gibson (UUP) 474 (1.1%)
Stevie Maginn (Green) 307 (0.7%)
Patrick Crossan (WP) 193 (0.4%)
Gerard Burns (Ind) 192 (0.4%)
Tony Mallon (Ind) 129 (0.3%)
Declan Hill (Ind) 26 (0.1%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

SF 27,808 (63.7%, +1.9%) 4 seats
DUP 4,166 (9.5%, -0.6%)
PBP 3,279 (7.5%, -7.4%) 1 seat
SDLP 2,528 (5.8%, -2.8%)
Aontú 1,753 (4.0%)
IRSP 1,103 (2.5%)
Alliance 907 (2.1%, +0.2%)
TUV 802 (1.8%)
UUP 474 (1.1%, -0.1%)
Ind 347 (0.8%)
Green 307 (0.7%, +0.1%)
WP 193 (0.4%, -0.6%)

Electorate: 68,727
Votes cast: 44,440 (64.7%, -2.1%), spoilt votes 773 (1.7%)
Valid votes: 43,667, quota 7,278

No change in West Belfast. Sinn Fein once again demonstrated precision vote management to return their four candidates; the only such instance in Northern Ireland. People Before Profit leader, Gerry Carroll, saw his vote halved and came within 532.40 votes of losing his seat to the DUP's Frank McCoubrey, though 515 undistributed SF surplus votes would have widened the gap. This was both Sinn Fein's and People Before Profit's best result of the election.

2019 Westminster election

*Paul Maskey (SF) 20,866 (53.8%, -12.9%)
@Gerry Carroll (PBP) 6,194 (16.0%, +5.8%)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 5,220 (13.5%, +0.1%)
Paul Doherty (SDLP) 2,985 (7.7%, +0.7%)
Donnamarie Higgins (Alliance) 1,882 (4.9%, +3.1%)
Monica Digney (Aontú) 1,635 (4.2%, +4.2%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 65,644; Total Poll: 38,988 (59.4%); Invalid Votes: 206 (0.5%); Valid Votes: 38,782

Maskey was returned with an outright majority of the votes but also the lowest tally for Sinn Fein in West Belfast since 1996. PBP and to a lesser extent Alliance picked up some votes from SF. Somewhat ironically, this is the only constituency where the DUP vote share increased, albeit very modestly. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give Sinn Fein three seats and one for People Before Profit. The last seat would likely go to the DUP or SDLP; the latter being more transfer friendly.

2019 local government election

From the 2011 census, West Belfast includes:

The entire Belfast DEA of Black Mountain
96% of the Belfast DEA of Collin
74% of the Belfast DEA of Court
and
2% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Killultagh

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2019 results as:

SF 19,938 (58.7%)
PBP 4,282 (12.6%)
DUP 3,333 (9.8%)
SDLP 2,053 (6.0%)
Aontú 1,415 (4.2%)
Alliance 854 (2.5%)
PUP 576 (1.7%)
Green 545 (1.6%)
UUP 339 (1.0%)
Inds 261 (0.8%)
WP 228 (0.7%)
TUV 160 (0.5%)

If cast in a five-seat STV election, those votes would certainly give SF three seats. The last two would be between the fourth Sinn Fein candidate, PBP and the DUP, with the DUP probably at a disadvantage.

2017 Westminster election

Candidates:

*Paul Maskey (SF) 27,107 (66.7%, +12.5%)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 5,455 (13.4%, +5.6%)
@Gerry Carroll (PBP) 4,132 (10.4%, -8.8%)
Tim Attwood (SDLP) 2,860 (7.0%, -2.8%)
Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance) 731 (1.8%, ±0)
Conor Campbell (WP) 348 (0.9%, -0.8%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly

Electorate: 62,423; Total Poll: 40,830 (65.4%); Invalid Votes: 190 (0.4%); Valid Votes: 40,633

A strong result for SF, reclaiming ground from others. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would deliver four SF MLAs with People Before Profit probably best placed for the lsat, with SDLP transfers.

2017 Assembly election (five seats)

Órlaithí Flynn (SF) 6,918 (17.1%)
@Alex Maskey (SF) 6,346 (15.7%)
@Fra McCann (SF) 6,201 (15.4%)
@Pat Sheehan (SF) 5,466 (13.5%)
@Gerry Carroll (PBP) 4,903 (12.2%)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 4,063 (10.1%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3,452 (8.6%)
Michael Collins (PBP) 1,096 (2.7%)
Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance) 747 (1.9%)
Fred Rodgers (UUP) 486 (1.2%)
Conor Campbell (WP) 415 (1.0%)
Ellen Murray (Green) 251 (0.6%)

SF 24,931 (61.8%, +7.3%) 4 seats
PBP 5,999 (14.9%, -8.0%) 1 seat
DUP 4,063 (10.1%, -0.3%)
SDLP 3,452 (8.6%, +1.3%) 0 seats (-1)
Alliance 747 (1.9%, +1.1%)
UUP 486 (1.2%, -0.6%)
WP 415 (1.0%, -0.5%)
Green 251 (0.6%, -0.3%)

Electorate: 61,309
Votes cast: 40,930 (66.8%, +9.0%), spoilt votes 586 (1.4%)
Valid votes: 40,344, quota 6,725

Alex Attwood of the SDLP was eliminated on the second count, 353 votes behind the DUP's McCoubrey; if it had been the other way round, Attwood would likely had profited from Unionist transfers to stay in the runnnig. As it was, McCoubrey lost the last seat by a margin of 1,382 to SF's Sheehan, and 846 undistributed SF surplus votes would certtainly have widened the gap.

2016 Brexit referendum

Total electorate: 63,883
Turnout: 31,209 (48.9%), lowest in Northern Ireland (and indeed in the UK)
Invalid votes: 18 (0.06%)
Votes to REMAIN: 23,099 (74.1%);
Votes to LEAVE: 8,092 (25.9%).
Second highest REMAIN vote share in Northern Ireland.

2016 Assembly election (six seats)

Gerry Carroll (PBP) 8,299
Alex Maskey (Sinn Féin) 4,769
Jennifer McCann (Sinn Féin) 4,386
Fra McCann (Sinn Féin) 4,028
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 3,766
Pat Sheehan (Sinn Féin) 3,516
Rosie McCorley (Sinn Féin) 3,053
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 2,647
Gareth Martin (UUP) 654
Conor Campbell (WP) 532
Ellen Murray (Green) 327
Jemima Higgins (Alliance) 291

Sinn Féin 19,752 (54.5%, -11.6%) 4 seats (-1)
PBP 8,299 (22.9%, +18.1%) 1 seat (+1)
DUP 3,766 (10.4%, +2.9%)
SDLP 2,647 (7.3%, -5.9%) 1 seat
UUP 654 (1.8%, -2.4%)
WP 532 (1.5%, -0.2%)
Green 327 (0.9%)
Alliance 291 (0.8%, -0.3%)

Electorate 63,993
Votes cast 36,990 (57.8%, -0.1%); spoilt 722 (2.0%)
Valid votes: 36,268; quota 5,182

A triumph for Gerry Carroll, elected on the first count with 1.6 quotas; and a very narrow squeak for Alex Attwood of the SDLP, who trailed Frank McCoubrey of the DUP for most of the count and pulled ahead only by 88.99 votes on the very last transfer of SF surplus votes.

2015 Westminster election

*Paul Maskey (SF) 19,163 (54.2%, -16.8%)
Gerry Carroll (PBP) 6,798 (19.2%)
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3,475 (9.8%, -6.5%)
Frank McCoubrey (DUP) 2,773 (7.8%, +0.3%)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 1,088 (3.1%, 0.0%)
Brian Higginson (UKIP) 765 (2.2%)
Gerard Catney (Alliance) 636 (1.8%, -0.1%)
John Lowry (WP) 597 (1.7%)
Paul Shea (Conservative) 34 (0.1%)
Electorate: 62,697; Total Poll: 35,610 (56.8%); Invalid Votes: 281 (0.8%); Valid Votes: 35,329

A solid defence by Maskey, though this is the worst SF performance in West Belfast since 1996. Having said that, the Conservative candidate, who got less than 0.1% of the vote, has achieved a new record for poor performances by a mainstream party.

If cast in a six-seat Assembly election, these votes would give SF four seats, PBP one and probably the SDLP one.

2014 local government election

From the 2011 census, West Belfast includes:

The entire Belfast DEA of Black Mountain
96% of the Belfast DEA of Collin
74% of the Belfast DEA of Court
and
2% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Killultagh

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2014 results as:

SF 19520 (62%)
SDLP 3508 (11%)
DUP 2223 (7%)
Éirígí 1751 (6%)
PBP 1691 (5%)
PUP 1414 (5%)
UUP 760 (2%)
Alliance 622 (2%)
NI21 588 (2%)
TUV 520 (2%)
WP 377 (1%)
RNU 208 (1%)
Inds 13 (0.4%)

If cast in a six-seat STV election, those votes would certainly give SF four seats. There would be just about enough Unionist votes to get the DUP a seat, if the transfers went the right way. The SDLP would be best placed to take the final seat, with �ir�g� and PBP (and the fifth SF candidate) chasing them hard.

2011 Westminster by-election (9 June)

@Paul Maskey (SF) 16,211 (70.6%, -0.5%)
@Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3088 (13.5%, -2.9%)
Gerry Carroll (People Before Profit) 1751 (7.6%)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 1393 (6.1%, -1.5%)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 386 (1.7%, -1.4%)
Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 122 (0.5%, -1.4%)

@ member of the Northern Ireland Assembly.

Electorate 61,768; Total poll 23,057 (turnout 37.53%); spoilt votes 97 (0.4%); Valid votes 22,951.

This was the first Westminster by-election in Northern Ireland since 2000 (South Antrim), the first caused by a resignation since the mass by-elections of 1986, and the first caused by a voluntary resignation where the incumbent did not seek re-election since the Armagh by-election of 1954, when Major Richard Harden decided to spend more time on his Welsh family estate.

Not a big surprise in SF's strongest constituency (where Adams had the fourth highest majority in the UK). Interesting to note Gerry Carroll of People Before Profit posting an increase both in percentage and in votes in a greatly reduced turnout, the lowest ever seen in a Northern Ireland parliamentary election.

One small point - the number of spoilt votes was very low by any standards, particularly in the constituency which normally posts the highest percentage of spoilt votes in each election.

2011 Assembly Election (six seats)

@Paul Maskey (SF) 5,343 (15.4%)
@Jennifer McCann (SF) 5,239 (15.1%)
@Fra McCann (SF) 4,481 (12.9%)
@Sue Ramsey (SF) 4,116 (11.9%)
@Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3,765 (10.9%)
@Pat Sheehan (SF) 3,723 (10.7%)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 2,587 (7.5%)
Gerry Carroll (PBP) 1,661 (4.8%)
Bill Manwaring (UUP) 1,471 (4.2%)
Colin Keenan (SDLP) 802 (2.3%)
John Lowry (WP) 586 (1.7%)
Pat Lawlor (Socialist) 384 (1.1%)
Dan McGuinness (Alliance) 365 (1.1%)
Brian Pelan (Independent) 122 (0.4%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

SF 22,902 (66.1%, -3.8%) 5 seats
SDLP 4,567 (13.2%, +1.0%) 1 seat
DUP 2,587 (7.5%, -3.3%)
PBP 1,661 (4.8%)
UUP 1,471 (4.2%, +2.5%)
WP 586 (1.7%, +0.4%)
Socialist 384 (1.1%)
Alliance 365 (1.1%, +0.7%)
Independent 122 (0.4%)

Electorate 61,520
Votes cast 35,618 (57.9%); spoilt 970 (2.7%)
Valid votes: 34,648; quota 4,951

Looking at the first preferences, I had the idea that the 11.7% total Unionist vote might float ahead of the SF candidates, especially given the relative difficulty of ensuring that Gerry Carroll's voters would be sufficiently disciplined for the convenience of the Shinners' battle plan. But in the end, if you have enough votes, balancing doesn't matter, and SF had enough votes to keep all five seats, the SDLP retaining the sixth, Pat Sheehan of SF finishing 460 votes ahead of the DUP.

2011 local government election

My projection of the votes cast in Upper Falls, Lower Falls, three wards of Court and five and a half wards of Dunmurry Cross:

SF 22,413 (65.1%)
SDLP 4,886 (14.2%)
DUP 2,968 (8.6%)
Eirigi 2,062 (6.0%)
WP 398 (1.2%)
PUP 382 (1.1%)
UUP 312 (0.9%)
Alliance 53 (0.2%)
IRSP 209 (0.6%)
Socialist 148 (0.4%)
Inds 574 (1.7%)

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would have secured SF four seats and the SDLP one, the last being between the fifth Shinner, the DUP and Eirigi.

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Gerry Adams (Sinn Féin) 22,840 (71.1%, +3.5%)
@Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,261 (16.4%, +0.4%)
William Humphrey (DUP) 2,436 (7.6%, -3.2%)
Bill Manwaring (UCUNF) 1,000 (3.1% +0.6%)
Maire Hendron (Alliance) 596 (1.9% , +1.8%)
Electorate: 59,522; Total Poll: 32,682 (54.9%); Invalid Votes: 549 (1.7%); Valid Votes: 32,133

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

A solid performance from SF in their strongest seat. If those votes were cast in a six-seat Assembly election, SF would probably keep their five seats and the SDLP would retain their seat also.

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

Full details of each count are available here.

*Gerry Adams MP (SF) 6029 (17.8%)
+Sue Ramsey (SF) 4715 (14.0%)
Paul Maskey (SF) 4368 (12.9%)
Jennifer McCann (SF) 4265 (12.6%)
*Fra McCann (SF) 4254 (12.6%)
*Diane Dodds (DUP) 3661 (10.8%)
*Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3036 (9.0%)
Margaret Walsh (SDLP) 1074 (3.2%)
Seán Mitchell (People Before Profit Alliance) 774 (2.3%)
Louis West (UUP) 558 (1.7%)
John Lowry (WP) 434 (1.3%)
Geraldine Taylor (RSF) 427 (1.3%)
Daniel McGuinness (Alliance) 127 (0.4%)
Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 68 (0.2%)

*Elected in 2003 from West Belfast
+Appointed to 2003-07 Assembly to fill a vacancy

SF 23,631 (69.9%, +4.9%) 5 seats (+1)
SDLP 4,110 (12.2%, -6.9%) 1 seat
DUP 3,661 (10.8%, +3.1%) (-1)
People Before Profit 774 (2.3%)
UUP 558 (1.7%, -1.9%)
WP 434 (1.3%, +0.05%)
RSF 427 (1.3%)
Alliance 127 (0.4%, +0.1%)
Rainbow George 68 (0.2%)

Electorate 50,792
Votes cast 34,238 (67.4%); spoilt votes 448 (1.3%)
Valid votes 33,790; quota 4,828

The DUP's loss of a seat, despite a big increase in their vote, was the only defeat they suffered in the entire election. SF's success in retaining most of Adams' vote from the Westminster election, and then ensuring that their five candidates were sufficiently well balanced to each get a seat, was remarkable. McCann (SF) was 481 votes ahead of Dodds (DUP) in on the last count, with 266 undistributed SF transfers which would have widened the margin.

2005 Westminster results (5 May)

*@ Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein) 24,348 (70.5%, +4.4%)
@Alex Attwood (SDLP) 5,033 (14.6%, -4.3%)
@Diane Dodds (DUP) 3,652 (10.6%, +4.2%)
@Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 779 (2.3% -3.9%)
John Lowry (WP) 432 (1.3% -0.5%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 154 (0.4%, +0.2%)
Liam Kennedy (Independent) 147 (0.4%)
Valid Turnout 34,545 (64.2%)

* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

If cast in a six-seat STV election, these votes would put SF within spitting distance of five seats with the SDLP picking up the last. Any vote leakage from SF would increase the chances of the DUP winning a seat.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

The constituency comprises 13 of the 51 wards in Belfast (all 5 wards in the Lower Falls DEA, all 5 wards in the Upper Falls DEA, and 3 of the 5 wards in the Court DEA [Glencairn, Highfield and Shankill]) and 4 of the 30 wards in Lisburn (4 of the 7 wards in the Dunmurry Cross DEA [Collin Glen, Kilwee, Poleglass and Twinbrook]))

Sinn Fein 22,659.8 (66.1%) - Best SF equivalent result in Northern Ireland
SDLP 5,751.9 (16.8%)
DUP 3,841.6 (11.2%)
UUP 739.9 (2.2%)
PUP 479.4 (1.4%)
WP 314 (0.9%)
Independents 476.4 (1.4%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the West Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole West Belfast constituency. Sinn Fein would certainly have won four seats, the SDLP one, and the DUP one. However I have divided the votes from the Dunmurry Cross DEA as if they were homogenously spread, when in fact it is likely that the SF vote is concentrated in the part of Dunmurry Cross inside West Belfast, so they are probably closer to the fifth seat (at the expense of the DUP) than these figures would suggest.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Gerry Adams (SF) 6199 (18.9%)
Fra McCann (SF) 4263 (13.0%)
*Bairbre De Brun (SF) 4069 (12.4%)
Michael Ferguson (SF) 3849 (11.7%)
*Alex Attwood (SDLP) 3667 (11.2%)
*Sue Ramsey (SF) 2988 (9.1%)
*Joe Hendron (SDLP) 2583 (7.9%)
Diane Dodds (DUP) 2544 (7.7%)
Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 1170 (3.6%)
Hugh Smyth (PUP) 813 (2.5%)
John Lowry (WP) 407 (1.2%)
John MacVicar (Ind) 211 (0.6%)
Kathryn Ayers (Alliance) 75 (0.2%)
David Kerr (Ulster Third Way) 16 (0.0%)

SF 21,368 (65.0%, +6.0%) 4 seats Best result for SF in Northern Ireland
SDLP 6,250 (19.0%, -5.9%) 1 seat
DUP 2,544 (7.7%, +4.5) 1 seat
UUP 1,170 (3.6%, -0.3%)
PUP 813 (2.5%, -2.7%)
WP 407 (1.2%, -0.3%) Best result for WP in Northern Ireland
Ind 211 (0.6%)
Alliance 75 (0.2%, -0.10)
UTW 16 (0.0%)

Electorate 50,861
Votes cast 33,527 (65.9%); spoilt votes 673 (2.0%)
Valid votes 32,854; quota 4,694

Reaction:Vote management is difficult when you have a lot of candidates. A more even split between McCann and Ramsey would have seen both elected, and SF taking five out of six. As it was Dodds sneaked in by 87 votes, the closest inter-party race of the election. De Brun resigned from the Assembly after her election to the European Parliament in 2004, and was replaced by Ramsay who had lost out so narrowly. Ferguson died in September 2006; as of the last update to this page, his seat was still vacant.

West Belfast had lost 18.56% of its electorate, more than any other constituency, in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 25.14% in the Falls ward of Belfast to 11.87% in Highfield, also in Belfast.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

*@Gerry Adams (Sinn Fein) 27,096 (66.1%) Best result in Northern Ireland
@Alex Attwood (SDLP) 7,754 (18.9%)
Eric Smyth (DUP) 2,641 (6.4%)
Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 2,541 (6.2%)
John Lowry (WP) 736 (1.8%) Best result in Northern Ireland
David Kerr (Ulster Third Way) 116 (0.3%)
Rainbow George Weiss (Vote for Yourself Party) 98 (0.2%)

Electorate: 59,617; votes cast: 41,698 (69.9%); spoilt votes: 716 (1.7%)
Valid votes: 40,982; SF majority 19,342; turnout 40,982 (69%)

* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

A good result for SF; Adams got the highest vote in both absolute and percentage terms of any candidate in Northern Ireland. If this vote was repeated in a six-seat Assembly election, Sinn Fein would probably win five seats, and the SDLP would get the other one.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

The constituency comprises 13 of the 51 wards in Belfast (all 5 wards in the Lower Falls DEA, all 5 wards in the Upper Falls DEA, and 3 of the 5 wards in the Court DEA) and 4 of 30 wards in Lisburn (4 of the 7 wards in the Dunmurry Cross DEA)

SF 24358.4 (60%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
SDLP 7913.1 (20%)
DUP 2515 (6%)
UUP 2235.1 (6%)
PUP 1289.4 (3%)
WP 488 (1%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
NIWC 365 (1%)
Alliance 136 (0.3%)
Ulster Third Way 16.8 (0.04%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
Independents 1163.8 (3%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the West Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole West Belfast constituency. Sinn Fein would certainly have won four seats, and the SDLP one. There would have been one Unionist seat, with the DUP best placed to win it. However I have divided the votes from the Dunmurry Cross DEA as if they were homogenously spread, when in fact it is likely that the SF vote is concentrated in the part of Dunmurry Cross inside West Belfast.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Gerry Adams (SF) 9,078
*Joe Hendron (SDLP) 6,140
Bairbre De Brun (SF) 4,711
*Alex Maskey (SF) 4,330
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 4,280
Sue Ramsey (SF) 3,946
Michael Ferguson (SF) 2,585
#Hugh Smyth (PUP) 2,180
Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 1,640
Margaret Ferris (DUP) 1,345
Thomas Dalzell-Sheridan (UKUP) 666
John Lowry (WP) 607
Dan McGuinness (All) 129
Mary Cahillane (Pro-Agreement Socialist) 128
Michael Kennedy (NLP) 29

SF 24,650 (58.98%) 4 seats
Best result for SF in Northern Ireland
SDLP 10,420 (24.93%) 2 seats
PUP 2,180 (5.22%)
UUP 1,640 (3.92%)
DUP 1,345 (3.22%)
UKU 666 (1.59%)
WP 607 (1.45%)
Alliance 129 (0.31%)
Soc 128 (0.31%)
NLP 29 (0.07%)

Electorate: 60,669
Votes cast: 42,754 (70.5%); spoilt votes 960 (2.2%)
Valid votes: 41,794; quota: 5,971

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from West Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

A strong result for Sinn Féin in their strongest constituency. The failure of even one Unionist candidate to win a seat is not all that surprising given recent voting patterns. Attwood finished with 5,350 votes and 350 surplus votes from SinnFéin yet to be transferred, while McGimsey on 4,838 was still some way behind.

West Belfast had the highest percentage of spoilt votes in Northern Ireland at this election.

1997 Local Government Election

Sinn Féin 21,544.5 (59%) Best equivalent result for SF in Northern Ireland
Social Democratic and Labour Party 6,241.5 (17%)
Ulster Unionist Party 2,442.3 (7%)
Progressive Unionist Party 1,842 (5%)
Democratic Unionist Party 1,387.6 (4%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 889.4 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party 720 (2%)
Workers Party 674 (2%)
Independent 251 (1%)
Independent Unionist 244.2 (1%)
Women's Coalition 90 (0.25%)
Total valid 36,326.5 (58.82%)

1997 Westminster Election

ƒ Gerry Adams (Sinn Féin) 25,662 (56%) Best result for SF in Northern Ireland
*ƒ Joe Hendron (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 17,753 (39%)
Frederick Parkinson (Ulster Unionist Party) 1,556 (3%)
John Lowry (Workers' Party) 721 (2%)
Liam Kennedy (Human Rights) 102 (0.22%)
Mary Daly (Natural Law Party) 91 (0.20%)
Turnout 45,885 (74.27%)

* Outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum

1996 Forum Election

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Sinn Féin (SF) 22,355 (53%); 4 seats (Gerry Adams, Dodie McGuinness, Alex Maskey, Annie Armstrong) Best result for SF in Northern Ireland
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 11,087 (26%); 1 seat (Joe Hendron)
Progressive Unionist Party 1,982 (5%)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 1,769 (4%)
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 1,489 (4%)
Workers Party (WP) 984 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 848 (2%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 340 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 319 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 252 (1%)
Green Party 156 (0.37%)
Conservative Party (Con) 60 (0.14%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 43 (0.10%)
Democratic Left (DL) 37 (0.09%)
Independent Democratic Unionist Party 36 (0.09%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 30 (0.07%)
Communist Party of Ireland (CP) 28 (0.07%)
Ulster's Independent Voice (UIV) 26 (0.06%)
Independent Chambers 12 (0.03%)

Electorate: 61,344; votes cast: 42,026 (68.5%); spoilt votes: 173 (0.4%); valid votes: 41,853

Hendron had been elected to the 1975 Convention, and both Hendron and Adams to the 1982 Assembly, from West Belfast.

Results 1996-2007

	DUP	UUP	PUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2007a	11%	2%			0%	5%	12%	70%
2005w	11%	2%				2%	15%	70%
2005lg	11%	2%	1%			2%	17%	66%
2003a	8%	4%	2%	1%	0%	1%	19%	65%
2001w	6%	6%				2%	19%	66%
2001lg	6%	6%	3%		0%	5%	20%	60%
1998a	3%	4%	5%	2%	0%	2%	25%	59%
1997lg	4%	7%	5%	3%	2%	3%	17%	59%
1997w		3%				2%	39%	56%
1996f	4%	4%	4%	2%	1%	4%	26%	53%

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 May 2022 by Conal Kelly.

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