Northern Ireland Assembly Elections 2007

On 7 March 2007, 108 members of the Northern Ireland Assembly were elected, the third election to the Assembly (and the seventh and last of any kind) on the constituency boundaries established before the Forum elections of 1996.

The results

108 members were elected to the  Assembly; each of the existing 18 parliamentary constituencies in Northern Ireland elected 6 members of the new body by the Single Transferable Vote.  See spreadsheet archive.
 
DUP  207721  30.1%  +4.4%  36 seats  +6 
SF  180573  26.2%  +2.7%  28 seats  +4 
SDLP 105164  15.2%  -1.7%  16 seats  -2 
UUP  103145  14.9%  -7.7%  18 seats  -9 
Alliance  36139  5.2%  +1.6%  7 seats  +1 
Green Party 11985  1.7%  +1.3%  1 seat  +1 
UKUP 10452  1.5%  +0.7%    -1 
Republican Sinn Fein 3880  0.6%       
PUP  3822  0.6%  -0.6%  1 seat  +/-0 
Kieran Deeney (West Tyrone)  3776  0.5%  -0.3%  1 seat  +/-0
Conservative Party  3457  0.5%  +0.3%     
Paul Berry (Newry and Armagh, Ind U) 
2317 
0.3% 

   
Davy Hyland (Newry and Armagh) 
2188 
0.3% 

   
Socialist Environmental Alliance 
2045 
0.3% 
+/-0.0% 
    
David Calvert (Upper Bann, Ind U) 
1332 
0.2% 

   
Raymond McCord (North Belfast) 
1320 
0.2% 
0.2% 
    
UK Independence Party 
1229 
0.2% 

   
Brian Rowan (North Down) 
1194 
0.2% 

   
Alan Chambers (North Down, Ind U) 
1129 
0.2% 
+/-0.0% 
    
Workers Party 
975 
0.1% 
-0.1% 
    
Gerry McGeough (Fermanagh and South Tyrone) 
814 
0.1% 

   
People Before Profit Alliance 
774 
0.1% 

   
Martin Gregg (Strangford) 
650 
0.1% 

   
William Frazer (Newry and Armagh/Foyle, Ind U) 
678 
0.1% 
+/-0.0% 
    
Socialist Party 
473 
0.1% 
+/-0.0% 
    
Martin Cunningham (South Down) 
434 
0.1% 

   
Michael McManus (Fermanagh and South Tyrone) 
431 
0.1% 

   
John Anderson (East Antrim) 
398 
0.1% 
+/-0.0% 
    
Paul McGlinchey (North Antrim) 
383 
0.1% 

   
James Gregg (North Antrim) 
310 
0.04% 

   
Cedric Wilson (Strangford, Ind U) 
305 
0.04% 

   
Make Politicians History 
221 
0.03% 
+/-0.0% 
    
Harry Hutchinson (Mid Ulster) 
170 
0.02% 

   
Christopher Carter (North Down) 
123 
0.02% 
+/-0.0% 
    
Labour 
123 
0.02% 
+/-0.0% 
    
Suzanne Peeples (Upper Bann, Ind U) 
78 
0.01% 

   
Victor Christie (East Londonderry) 
73 
0.01% 

   
Procapitalism 
22 
0.003% 

   
Geoffrey Wilson (South Belfast) 
10 
0.001% 

   

The basis for comparison in the above table is the change in vote for candidates with the same party label from 2007. Thus I have not calculated a figure for Berry, Hyland, Calvert or Cedric Wilson, who were independent candidates in 2007 but ran under a party designation in 2003. McCord, Chambers, Anderson and Carter all ran as independents both times, so a comparison is possible, and has been calculated. I have also calculated a change for Labour based on the vote of Malachi Curran in 2003, as it was the party's sole candidate in 2007; and for "Make Politicians History" as it is clearly the same organisation as 2003's "Vote For Yourself Party".

Constituency List

East Belfast 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 PUP
North Belfast 2 DUP, 2 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP
South Belfast 2 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 Alliance
West Belfast 5 SF, 1 SDLP
East Antrim 3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance
North Antrim 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF
South Antrim 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP
North Down 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 Green
South Down 2 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP, 1 UUP
Fermanagh and South Tyrone 2 SF, 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP
Foyle 3 SDLP, 2 SF, 1 DUP
Lagan Valley 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SF, 1 Alliance
East Londonderry 3 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP
Mid Ulster 3 SF, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 UUP
Newry and Armagh 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP, 1 UUP
Strangford 4 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance
West Tyrone 3 SF, 2 DUP, 1 Ind
Upper Bann 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 SF, 1 SDLP

Analysis

This was again a very good election for the DUP and for SF, an endorsement of the 2006 St Andrew's Agreement to restore a devolved government. For the SDLP, the vote was disappointing; for the UUP their worst result ever, their loss of 9 seats actually cushioned by some fortunate gains. Alliance gained a seat in South Belfast; the Green Party gained a seat in North Down. The PUP and Kieran Deeny managed to hold on, but Robert McCartney lost the UKUP's last seat.

The results were in general rather more clearcut than in previous elections - only one of the five closest races was genuinely tight in party terms (two were intra-party contests, two would have been less close if all transfers were taken into account):

  1. Michelle McIlveen (DUP) beat Joe Boyle (SDLP) by 31 votes in Strangford, gaining from the UUP.
  2. Mary Bradley (SDLP) edged out her running mate Pauline Quigley (SDLP) by 101 votes in Foyle.
  3. Allan Bresland (DUP) defeated Josephine Deehan (SDLP) by 358 votes in West Tyrone. This is not as close as it looks, however, as there were another 284 undistributed DUP transfers.
  4. Fra McCann (SF) defeated Diane Dodds (DUP) in West Belfast by 481 votes, SF gaining her seat. This is not as close a result as it looks, however, as there were 266 undistributed SF transfers which would have widened the margin.
  5. Nelson McCausland (DUP) defeated William Humphrey (also DUP) by 492 votes in North Belfast.

See also: Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | List of all 1998 candidates

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

Nicholas Whyte, 13 March 2010.


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