| |
|
|
|
|
|
The
2019
election was somewhat of a setback for DUP in Lisburn and
Castlereagh. While it remains their strongest performance across
all 11 councils, they saw a dip of almost 4% in their share of
the first preference vote and lost a total of five seats. The
UUP bucked the trend elsewhere and managed to pick up three
additional seats in Downshire East, Lisburn North, and Lisburn
South. Alliance managed to almost double their share of the vote
to 23.6% and made modest gains in Castlereagh East and
Killultagh. This represents Alliance's best performance across
all 11 council contests. Sinn Féin gained representation on the
council for the first time with wins in Castlereagh South and
Killultagh. As was the case elsewhere, the TUV will not be
represented on the new council, losing their one and only seat
in Castlereagh East to Alliance.
Map by Conal
Kelly
Summary
| Electoral Area | 2019 Results | 2014 Results |
| Castlereagh East | 3 DUP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP |
3 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 TUV |
| Downshire East |
2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance |
3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance |
| Downshire West |
2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance |
2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance |
| Lisburn South |
3 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance |
4 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance |
| Lisburn North | 2 DUP, 2 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 SDLP |
3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, 1 NI21 |
| Killultagh | 2 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, 1 SF |
3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP |
| Castlereagh South | 2 Alliance, 1 DUP, 1 SDLP, 1 SF, 1 Green, 1 UUP |
2 Alliance, 2 SDLP, 2 DUP, 1 UUP |
|
|
|
Votes by Party
| 2019 Results | 2014 Results | 2011 Notional Results |
| DUP 18,455 (36.7%) 15 councillors Alliance 11,883 (23.6%) 9 councillors UUP 8,837 (17.6%) 11 councillors SDLP 4,364 (8.7%) 2 councillors SF 2,717 (5.4%) 2 councillors TUV 1,167 (2.3%) Green 878 (1.7%) 1 councillor Ind 878 (1.7%) Cons 592 (1.2%) UKIP 255 (0.5%) DVP 242 (0.5%) |
DUP 18,520 (40.4%) 20 councillors UUP 7,311 (16.0%) 8 councillors Alliance 5,492 (12.0%) 7 councillors SDLP 3,658 (8.0%) 3 councillors NI21 3,173 (6.9%) 1 councillor TUV 2,720 (5.9%) 1 councillor SF 2,150 (4.7%) UKIP 824 (1.8%) Green 699 (1.5%) PUP 695 (1.5%) Conservatives 376 (0.8%) Inds 169 (0.4%) |
DUP: 22,217 (47.4%), 20 councillors UUP: 8,021 (17.1%), 7 councillors Alliance: 7,354 (15.7%), 6 councillors SDLP: 4,232 (9.0%), 4 councillors SF: 3,017 (6.4%) 3 councillors Green: 945 (2.0%) Cons: 332 (0.7%) TUV: 282 (0.6%) BNP: 154 (0.3%) PBP: 50 (0.1%) Ind: 288 (0.6%) |
| Electorate: 102,151; votes cast: 50,747 (49.7%); invalid
votes: 479 (0.9%); valid votes: 50,268 |
Electorate: 94,903; votes cast: 46,362 (48.9%); invalid
votes: 585 (1.3%); valid votes: 45,777 |
2011 Census:
32,296 "Catholic" (23.95%); 90,206 "Protestant" (66.90%);
1,442 Other (1.07%); 10,897 None (8.08%)
The
2011
notional results given above were my best guess projection of
the 2011 votes onto the new boundaries - a "backcast" rather
than a forecast. This was particularly difficult in this case,
given the cross-cutting of old and new boundaries. I am pretty sure in
retrospect that I overestimated the Nationalist vote in Lisburn
North, where we commentators debated hotly whether there were
one or two Nationalist seats; in the event, there were none. I
still think that the SDLP and SF underperformed on their 2011
record, but I admit that
it's a debatable point.
See
also
results for:
Lisburn: 1993-2011,
1985-89,
and 1973-81
Castlereagh: 1993-2011,
1985-89,
and 1973-81.
Westminster
seat: East
Belfast and Strangford
Includes
these
wards: Ballyhanwood, Carrowreagh, Dundonald, Enler, Graham's
Bridge, and Moneyreagh.
| First Count: Martin Gregg (Alliance) 1,212 Sharon Skillen (DUP) 1,174 Tim Morrow (Alliance) 936 David Drysdale (DUP) 849 John Laverty (DUP) 813 Hazel Legge (UUP) 723 Tommy Jeffers (DUP) 638 Andrew Girvin (TUV) 637 |
Votes by Party: DUP 3,474 (49.8%) 3 seats - best DUP result of the election Alliance 2,148 (30.8%) 2 seats UUP 723 (10.4%) 1 seat TUV 637 (9.1%) |
Electorate: 14,963; votes cast: 7,047 (47.1%); invalid votes: 65
(0.9%); valid votes: 6,982; quota: 998.
Laverty (DUP) was 208.01 ahead of his running mate Jeffers for
the last seat, with another DUP surplus of 83.92 undistributed.
Castlereagh East represents the DUP's best performance across all
80 Electoral Areas in 2019.
| First Count: Tommy Jeffers (DUP) 881 David Drysdale (DUP) 823 Sharon Skillen (DUP) 787 Lynda Spratt (DUP) 700 Andrew Girvin (TUV) 683 Hazel Legge (UUP) 580 Tim Morrow (Alliance) 521 Izzy Giles (PUP) 492 Martin Gregg (Green) 442 Stephen Donnan (Alliance) 301 Mark Devenney (NI21) 241 Robert Campbell (Independent) 75 Sandra Wilson (Independent) 61 |
Votes by Party: DUP 3,191 (48.4%) 3 seats Alliance 822 (12.5%) 1 seat TUV 683 (10.4%) 1 seat UUP 580 (8.8%) 1 seat PUP 492 (7.5%) Green 442 (6.7%) NI21 241 (3.7%) Inds 136 (2.1%) |
Electorate
13,645; votes cast 6,690 (49.0%); spoilt votes 103 (1.5%); valid votes 6,587;
quota: 942.
Spragg (DUP)
finished 126 votes behind Legge (UUP), who had benefited from
Green/Alliance transfers.
Irish Observer and Faha both projected 4 DUP, 2 Alliance; this can be seen as a gain for both TUV and the UUP from the other two parties.
Westminster
seat: Lagan
Valley
Includes
these
wards: Ballymacbrennan, Dromara, Drumbo, Hillhall, and Ravernet.
| First Count: Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 1,318 Andrew Gowan (DUP) 1,133 James Baird (UUP) 950 Uel Mackin (DUP) 905 Alex Swan (UUP) 726 Janet Gray (DUP) 721 Owen Beckett (SDLP) 422 |
Votes by Party: DUP 2,759 (44.7%) 2 seats UUP 1,676 (27.1%) 2 seats Alliance 1,318 (21.3%) 1 seat SDLP 422 (6.8%) |
Electorate: 12,214; votes cast: 6,222 (50.9%); invalid votes: 47
(0.8%); valid votes: 6,175; quota: 1,030.
Mackin (DUP) was 179.25 ahead of his running mate Gray for the
last seat, with undistributed surpluses of 51.75 (UUP) and 103
(DUP). The DUP was marginally closer to three quotas than the UUP
to two but the Alliance and SDLP transfers favored the UUP
significantly.
| First Count: Luke Poots (DUP) 1,245 James Baird (UUP) 734 Uel Mackin (DUP) 734 Aaron McIntyre (Alliance) 691 Janet Gray (DUP) 480 Alex Swan (UUP) 432 Christina Dobson (NI21) 426 Tom Mateer (TUV) 413 Roy Young (DUP) 371 Glenn Wilson (NI21) 271 Peter Lindsay (UKIP) 199 |
Votes by Party: DUP 2,830 (47.0%) 3 seats UUP 1,166 (19.5%) 1 seat NI21 697 (11.6%) - best NI21 result in Northern Ireland Alliance 691 (11.5%) 1 seat TUV 413 (6.9%) UKIP 199 (3.3%) |
Electorate 11,563; votes cast 6,062 (52.4%); spoilt votes 72 (1.2%); valid votes 5,990 (as officially reported); quota: 1,000.
NB that there
must be a mistake in the above figures. The number of votes for
each candidate adds to 5996 (and indeed this is the total given
at the bottom of each column on the official
results sheet and fits the quota of 1,000). But in that
case either the figure for the total number of votes cast, or
the number of spoilt votes, or both, must be wrong.
McIntyre
(Alliance) finished 20.40 votes ahead of Dobson (NI21). Although
the two NI21 candidates began slightly ahead of Alliance, less
than 200 of Wilson's 279 votes transferred to Dobson on
elimination, and Alliance got 35, establishing a lead of over
100 which was then whittled down by DUP transfers.
Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, which was the actual result.
Westminster
seat: Lagan
Valley
Includes
these
wards: Blaris, Hillsborough, Lagan, Maze, and Moira.
| First Count: Owen Gawith (Alliance) 1,616 Caleb McCready (DUP) 1,012 John Palmer (UUP) 915 Allan Ewart (DUP) 670 Jim Dillon (UUP) 667 Vince Curry (DUP) 647 Morgan Crone (SDLP) 308 Luke Robinson (Green) 230 Neil Johnston (Cons) 169 |
Votes by Party: DUP 2,329 (37.4%) 2 seats Alliance 1,616 (25.9%) 1 seat UUP 1,582 (25.4%) 2 seats SDLP 308 (4.9%) Green 230 (3.7%) Cons 169 (2.7%) |
Electorate: 12,385; votes cast: 6,301 (50.9%); invalid votes: 67
(1.1%); valid votes: 6,234; quota: 1,040.
Ewart (DUP) was just 33.27 ahead of his running mate Curry for
the last seat, with a UUP surplus of 31.06 undistributed. Stage 6
saw the SDLP candidate eliminated by the narrowest of margins.
Just 0.51 of a vote separated Crone of the SDLP from Curry of the
DUP. The Alliance vote mushroomed to 25.9% and over 1.5 quotas. A
second Alliance candidate would have at least been in the running
for an additional seat.
| First Count: Jim Dillon (UUP) 912 Allan Ewart (DUP) 880 John Palmer (DUP) 768 Alexander Redpath (UUP) 671 Owen Gawith (Alliance) 493 Neil Johnston (Cons) 376 Colin Preen (DUP) 347 Jonny Miller (TUV) 335 Rebecca McBride (UKIP) 286 Dee French (SDLP) 231 Roger Duncan (NI21) 206 Neil McNickle (NI21) 148 Luke Robinson (Green) 119 |
Votes by Party: DUP 1,995 (34.6%) 2 seats UUP 1,583 (27.4%) 2 seats Alliance 493 (8.5%) 1 seat Cons 376 (6.5%) NI21 354 (6.1%) TUV 335 (5.8%) UKIP 286 (5.0%) SDLP 231 (4.0%) Green 119 (2.1%) |
Electorate
11,673; votes cast 5,832 (50.0%); spoilt votes 60 (1.0%); valid votes 5,772;
quota: 963.
Johnston (Cons) finished a long way behind Gawith (Alliance), 367.17 votes. The initial gap between them of 117 had widened with SDLP and NI21 transfers. A DUP surplus of 117 and a UUP surplus of 9, which might have narrowed the gap, remained undistributed.
Irish Observer and Faha both projected 3 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 Alliance, so this is effectively a gain from the DUP by the UUP.
Westminster
seat: Lagan
Valley
Includes
these
wards: Ballymacash, Ballymacoss, Knockmore, Lagan Valley,
Lisnagarvey, and Old Warren.
| First Count: Amanda Grehan (Alliance) 929 Jenny Palmer (UUP) 877 Andrew Ewing (DUP) 738 Alan Givan (DUP) 735 Tim Mitchell (UUP) 715 Paul Porter (DUP) 706 Brendan Corr (SDLP) 649 Jonny Orr (Ind) 534 Alison Chittick (TUV) 384 Rhoda Walker (DUP) 354 Ricky Taylor (DVP) 242 Helen Love (UKIP) 99 |
Votes by Party: DUP 2,533 (36.4%) 3 seats UUP 1,592 (22.9%) 2 seats Alliance 929 (13.3%) 1 seat SDLP 649 (9.3%) Ind 534 (7.7%) TUV 384 (5.5%) DVP 242 (3.5%) UKIP 99 (1.4%) |
Electorate: 15,521; votes cast: 7,044 (45.4%); invalid votes: 82
(1.2%); valid votes: 6,962; quota: 995.
Givan (DUP) was 118 ahead of Corr (SDLP) for the last seat, with
undistributed surpluses of 2 (DUP), 15 (UUP), and 27 (also UUP),
which would have widened the final margin.
| First Count: Tim Mitchell (UUP) 874 Alan Givan (DUP) 813 Paul Porter (DUP) 768 Andrew Ewing (DUP) 696 Rhoda Walker (DUP) 565 Alan Carlisle (DUP) 494 Andrew Moore (TUV) 469 David Cairns (NI21) 442 Amanda Grehan (Alliance) 430 Conor Quinn (SDLP) 423 James McMurray (Green) 138 Andrew Doran (NI21) 115 |
Votes by Party: DUP 3,336 (53.6%) 4 seats - DUP's best vote share in NI UUP 874 (14.0%) 1 seat NI21 557 (8.9%) TUV 469 (7.5%) Alliance 430 (6.9%) 1 seat SDLP 423 (6.8%) Green 128 (2.2%) |
Electorate 14,566; votes cast 6,321 (43.4%); spoilt votes 94 (1.5%); valid votes 6,227; quota: 890.
Grehan
(Alliance) finished 29.92 votes ahead of Cairns (NI21), with a
DUP surplus of 28 not distributed (which would have made little
difference). The turning point was the elimination of the SDLP,
of whose 438 votes 238 went to Alliance and only 89 to NI21,
reversing the margin between them.
One can
speculate that if NI21 had run a single candidate they might
have won the non-Unionist seat here.
Westminster
seat: Lagan
Valley
Includes
these
wards: Derryaghy, Harmony Hill, Hilden, Lambeg, Magheralave, and
Wallace Park.
| First Count: Stephen Martin (Alliance) 1,483 Jonathan Craig (DUP) 1,187 Johnny McCarthy (SDLP) 852 Scott Carson (DUP) 846 Nicholas Trimble (UUP) 719 Joe Duffy (SF) 654 Stuart Hughes (UUP) 578 Lindsay Reynolds (DUP) 425 Gary Hynds (Cons) 423 Alan Love (UKIP) 156 |
Votes by Party: DUP 2,458 (33.6%) 2 seats Alliance 1,483 (20.3%) 1 seat UUP 1,297 (17.7%) 2 seats SDLP 852 (11.6%) 1 seat SF 654 (8.9%) Cons 423 (5.8%) UKIP 156 (2.1%) |
Electorate: 15,356; votes cast: 7,412 (48.3%); invalid votes: 89
(1.2%); valid votes: 7,323; quota: 1,047.
Hughes (UUP) was 341.48 ahead of Duffy (SF) for the last seat,
with undistributed surpluses of 13.81 (DUP) and 30.14 (UUP), which
would have widened the final margin. The UUP performed well to
deliver two seats on just 1.2 quotas.
| First Count: Brian Bloomfield (UUP) 1,026 Margaret Tolerton (DUP) 735 Stephen Martin (Alliance) 711 Scott Carson (DUP) 684 Jenny Palmer (DUP) 534 Yvonne Craig (DUP) 526 Jacqui McGeough (SF) 493 Nicola Turtle (SDLP) 466 Alan Love (UKIP) 339 Johnny McCarthy (NI21) 329 John McCall (TUV) 300 Colin McCord (NI21) 237 Matt Brennan (PUP) 203 Jonny Orr (Independent) 33 |
Votes by Party: DUP 2,479 (37.47) 3 seats UUP 1,026 (16.0%) 1 seat Alliance 711 (10.7%) 1 seat NI21 566 (8.6%) 1 seat SF 493 (7.5%) SDLP 466 (7.0%) UKIP 339 (5.1%) TUV 300 (4.5%) PUP 203 (3.1%) Ind 33 (0.5%) |
Electorate 14,284; votes cast 6,725 (47.1%); spoilt votes 109 (1.6%); valid votes 6,616; quota: 946.
In the closest
result of the election, Palmer (DUP) beat her running mate Craig
(also DUP) by 3.3 votes.
McCarthy
(NI21) rose from tenth place to win the fourth seat largely
thanks to Nationalist transfers. On the sixth count, Turtle
(SDLP) was less than 14 votes behind McGeough (SF) when she was
eliminated, with 208 of her 484 votes goiing to Alliance
(electing Martin, and going on to elect McCarthy), 126 to SF and
30 directly to NI21. If SF had been behind the SDLP at that
stage, their transfers would almost certainly have given the
SDLP the second non-Unionist seat.
Westminster
seat: Lagan
Valley
Includes
these
wards: Ballinderry, Glenavy, Maghaberry, Stonyford, and White
Mountain.
| First Count: David Honeyford (Alliance) 1,524 Thomas Beckett (DUP) 1,006 Gary McCleave (SF) 994 James Tinsley (DUP) 979 William Leathem (DUP) 871 Ross McLernon (UUP) 707 Ally Haydock (SDLP) 695 Alexander Redpath (UUP) 632 Stuart Brown (Ind) 107 |
Votes by Party: DUP 2,856 (38.0%) 2 seats Alliance 1,524 (20.3%) 1 seat UUP 1,339 (17.8%) 1 seat SF 994 (13.2%) 1 seat SDLP 695 (9.2%) Ind 107 (1.4%) |
Electorate: 14,361; votes cast: 7,591 (52.9%); invalid votes: 76
(1.0%); valid votes: 7,515; quota: 1,253.
Tinsley (DUP) was 158.12 ahead of his running mate Leathem for
the last seat, with no undistributed surpluses. The successful
Alliance candidate had come last here in 2014 under the NI21
banner.
| First Count: Thomas Beckett (DUP) 1,216 Robbie Butler (UUP) 1,180 James Tinsley (DUP) 864 Mary Kate Quinn (SF) 854 William Leathem (DUP) 809 Patrick Catney (SDLP) 698 Jonnie McCrea (Alliance) 455 David Honeyford (NI21) 399 |
Votes by Party: DUP 2,889 (44.6%) 3 seats UUP 1,180 (18.2%) 1 seat SF 854 (13.2%) SDLP 698 (10.8%) 1 seat Alliance 455 (7.0%) NI21 399 (6.2%) |
Electorate 12,863; votes cast 6,534 (50.8%); spoilt votes 59 (0.9%); valid votes 6,475; quota: 1,080.
Quinn (SF)
finished 117.85 votes behind Tinsley (DUP) on the last count.
Catney (SDLP) started 156 votes behind her with less than
two-thirds of a quota, but took 297 of 654 Alliance transfers on
the last count, Quinn getting only 30, which won him the
Nationalist seat.
Irish
Observer projected 2 DUP, 1 SF, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, and Faha
2 DUP, 1 UUP, 1 SDLP, 1 Alliance. Either way it's a good
result for the DUP and a disappointing one for Alliance and SF.
Westminster
seat: East
Belfast, South
Belfast, and Strangford
Includes
these
wards: Beechill, Cairnshill, Carryduff East, Carryduff West,
Galwally, Knockbracken, and Newtownbreda.
| First Count: Sorcha Eastwood (Alliance) 1,629 Nathan Anderson (DUP) 1,503 Michelle Guy (Alliance) 1,236 Ryan Carlin (SF) 1,069 John Gallen (SDLP) 975 Simon Lee (Green) 648 Michael Henderson (UUP) 628 Rachael McCarthy (SDLP) 463 Jason Elliiott (DUP) 335 Geraldine Rice (Ind) 237 Vasundhara Kamble (DUP) 208 Nicola Girvin (TUV) 146 |
Votes by Party: Alliance 2,865 (31.6%) 2 seats DUP 2,046 (22.5%) 1 seat SDLP 1,438 (15.8%) 1 seat SF 1,069 (11.8%) 1 seat Green 648 (7.1%) 1 seat UUP 628 (6.9%) 1 seat Ind 237 (2.6%) TUV 146 (1.6%) |
Electorate: 17,351; votes cast: 9,130 (52.6%); invalid votes: 53
(0.6%); valid votes: 9,077; quota: 1,135.
Henderson (UUP) was 79.08 ahead of Elliiott (DUP) for the last
seat, with an SDLP surplus of 30.68 undistributed, which would
have widened the final margin. Alliance had just over 2.5 quotas.
It would have interesting if they fielded a third candidate. The
fact that both of their councillors elected here in 2014 had left
the party and were standing against it may have been an issue.
Also of note, Castlereagh South had the lowest proportion of
invalid votes at 0.58%, compared to 1.4% for all of Northern
Ireland and the highest being Dungannon at 3.9%.
| First Count: Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 1,221 John Gallen (SDLP) 964 Nathan Anderson (DUP) 942 Michael Henderson (UUP) 902 Brian Hanvey (SDLP) 876 Nuala Toman (SF) 803 Vasundhara Kamble (Alliance) 669 Wallace Douglas (TUV) 520 Ben Mallon (DUP) 499 Vikki Nelson (DUP) 359 Elizabeth McCord (NI21) 290 Adam Murray (NI21) 69 |
Votes by Party: Alliance 1,890 (23.0%) 2 seats SDLP 1,840 (22.7%) 2 seats DUP 1,800 (22.2%) 2 seats UUP 902 (11.1%) 1 seat SF 803 (9.9%) TUV 520 (6.4%) NI21 359 (4.4%) |
Electorate 16,309; votes cast 8,198 (50.3%); spoilt votes 88 (1.1%); valid votes 8,110; quota: 1,015.
Hanvey (SDLP)
finished 108.39 votes ahead of Toman (SF). Two DUP surpluses
totalling 81 votes remained undistributed; this would have
widened the margin a bit.
Irish Observer projected 2 DUP, 2 SDLP, 2 Alliance, 1 UUP, which was the actual result. Faha projected 3 SDLP, 2 DUP, 1 Alliance, 1 UUP, which would certainly have been a possible outcome if the SDLP had had a third candidate..
Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey
Front Page | Site Map | Notes and Queries | Updates Mailing List | About this Site
Your comments,
please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
|
Disclaimer:© Nicholas Whyte 1998-2014
|
