Map and graph by Conal Kelly

This constituency stretches along the coastal strip on the northern side of Belfast Lough and the western side of the North Channel. It takes in the central and eastern chunks of Mid and East Antrim District Council, the easternmost part of Antrim and Newtownabbey District Council, and the easternmost corner of Causeway Coast and Glens District Council. The DUP and Alliance hold two Assembly seats each, and the UUP one. The member of parliament since 2005 is Sammy Wilson (DUP); he defeated Roy Beggs (UUP), who had represented East Antrim since it was created in 1983 (see 1983-92 East Antrim results).

2019 Westminster notional result on new boundaries:

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections. Figures for the previous boundaries can be found at the bottom of this page.
NB also that the Conservatives supported the UUP candidate(s) in 2010 and 2011.

2022 Assembly election (five seats)

2019 Westminster election

*Sammy Wilson (DUP) 16,871 (45.3%, -12.1%)
Danny Donnelly (Alliance) 10,165 (27.3%, +11.7%)
@Steve Aiken (UUP) 5,475 (14.7%, +2.8%)
Oliver McMullan (SF) 2,120 (5.7%, -3.6%)
Aaron Rankin (Cons) 1,043 (2.8%, +0.3%)
Angela Mulholland (SDLP) 902 (2.4%, -0.9%)
Philip Randle (Green) 685 (1.8%, +1.8%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 64,830; Total Poll: 37,431 (57.7%); Invalid Votes: 170 (0.5%); Valid Votes: 37,261

Wilson successfully returned for the fifth time. Alliance drew votes directly from both DUP and SF here, more from DUP because there were more to draw from. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP and Alliance two seats each. The last one would between the UUP and a third DUP, with the former more likely.

2019 local government election

From the 2011 census, East Antrim includes:

The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Carrick Castle
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Coast Road
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Knockagh
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Larne Lough
4% of the Mid and East Antrim DEA of Braid
and
58% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Three Mile Water
13% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Macedon
and
24% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of The Glens

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2019 results as:

DUP 9,454 (32.0%)
Alliance 6,609 (22.4%)
UUP 5,984 (20.3%)
Inds 2,527 (8.6%)
SF 1,931 (6.5%)
TUV 1,572 (5.3%)
SDLP 342 (1.2%)
PUP 304 (1.0%)
UKIP 285 (1.0%)
DVP 265 (0.9%)
Green 256 (0.9%)

2017 Westminster election

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 62,908; Total Poll: 38.629 (60.8%); Invalid Votes: 126 (0.3%); Valid Votes: 38,143

A thumping victory for Sammy Wilson. In a five-seat Assembly election, this would elect three DUP candidates, one Alliance, and a fourth Unionist - UUP unless the DUP did a very good job of balancing.

2017 Assembly election (five seats)

2016 Brexit referendum

2016 Assembly election (six seats)

All six outgoing MLA's were re-elected, but this got very close at the end. On the penultimate count, Stewart (UUP) was excluded with 2926.89 votes, 126.42 less than Jordan (UKIP), with Ross (DUP) less than 120 ahead of the UKIP candidate and McMullan (SF) about 450 votes ahead of the DUP. Had Stewart's votes split evenly and consistently between UKIP and the DUP, both Ross and Jordan would have overtaken McMullan for the last seat. But in fact almost half of Stewart's votes were non-transferable, with 900 going to the DUP, 500 to UKIP and 40 to SF; the result being that SF held the last seat by a margin of 104.79 over UKIP. Might it have been different if Jordan, or indeed Ross, had been behind Stewart on the penultimate count? Their votes in either case could have split more evenly between the two other Unionist candidates, creating greater difficulty for McMullen.

2015 Westminster election

*Sammy Wilson (DUP) 12,103 (36.1%, -9.7%)
Roy Beggs (UUP) 6,308 (18.8%, -4.8%)
Stewart Dickson (Alliance) 5,021 (15.0%, +3.9%)
Noel Jordan (UKIP) 3,660 (10.9%)
Oliver McMullan (SF) 2,314 (6.9%, +0.1%)
Ruth Wilson (TUV) 1,903 (5.7%, -0.3%)
Margaret Anne McKillop (SDLP) 1,639 (4.9%, -1.7%)
Alex Wilson (Conservative) 549 (1.6%)
Electorate: 62,811; Total Poll: 33,688 (53.6%); Invalid Votes: 191 (0.6%); Valid Votes: 33,497

A successful defence by Wilson, though with votes slipping to UKIP who did very well here. The TUV vote, after encouraging local elections in 2014, is not impressive.

If cast in a six-seat Assembly election, these votes would probably give the DUP two seats, and one each to the UUP, Alliance, UKIP and SF.

2014 local government election

From the 2011 census, East Antrim includes:

The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Carrick Castle
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Coast Road
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Knockagh
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Larne Lough
4% of the Mid and East Antrim DEA of Braid
and
58% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Three Mile Water
13% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Macedon
and
24% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of The Glens

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2014 results as:

DUP 8013 (29%)
UUP 6253 (23%)
Alliance 4042 (15%)
TUV 2482 (9%)
Inds 2006 (7%)
SF 1745 (6%)
PUP 1523 (5%)
SDLP 853 (3%)
NI21 786 (3%)

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

One of the most significant results of the election - the only case where boundary changes which favoured Nationalists actually resulted in a gain (whereas Unionists gained three Nationalist seats for this reason). A good result for SF who were only 45 votes ahead of the SDLP in 2010 but outpolled them almost two to one this time, and took the second UUP seat as a result. Alliance came within 69 votes of a chance at a second seat; in the event the runner up was McCune of the UUP, 499 votes behind McMullan.

2011 local government election

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Sammy Wilson (DUP) 13,993 (45.9%, -1.0%)
Rodney McCune (UCUNF) 7,223 (23.7%, -1.4%)
Gerry Lynch (Alliance) 3,377 (11.1%, -3.6%)
Oliver McMullan (Sinn Féin) 2,064 (6.8%, +1.4%)
Justin McCamphill (SDLP) 2,019 (6.6%, -0.8%)
Samuel Morrison (TUV) 1,826 (6.0%)
Electorate: 60,204; Total Poll: 30,640 (50.9%); Invalid Votes: 138 (0.5%); Valid Votes: 30,502

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

A solid hold for Wilson, and another place where the TUV failed to break through. A six-seat Assembly election on these votes would get the DUP three seats, the UUP one for sure, and the last two probably going to SF and Alliance, though the UUP would be in with a chance of a second.

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

@Sammy Wilson (DUP) 15,766 (49.6% +13.6%)
* Roy Beggs (UUP) 8,462 (26.6% -9.8%)
@Sean Neeson (Alliance) 4,869 (15.3% +2.8%)
Daniel O'Connor (SDLP) 1,695 (5.3% -2.0%)
James McKeown (Sinn Fein) 828 (2.6% +0.1%)
David Kerr (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 147 (0.5%)

* outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly

The DUP's most widely expected gain. These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give the DUP three seats, the UUP two and Alliance one.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

East Antrim is made up of all 15 wards in Larne; all 17 wards in Carrickfergus; 4 of the 25 wards in Newtownabbey (3 of the 7 wards in the University DEA [Jordanstown, Monkstown and Rosstulla], and 1 of the 6 wards in the Macedon DEA [Cloughfern])

Votes cast in 2005 were as follows:

DUP 12579.7 (40.0%)
UUP 7144.7 (22.7%)
Alliance 5279.7 (16.8%)
SDLP 1108.3 (3.5%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Association 581.4 (1.8%)
494.5 (1.6%)
UUC 420.6 (1.3%)
PUP 179.5 (0.6%)
Green 46 (0.1%)
Independents 3619 11.5%

Extrapolating from local government elections is tricky because the East Antrim constituency breaches the boundaries of two local electoral areas. However, these votes if cast in a six-seat STV election across the whole East Antrim constituency would be likely to give the DUP three seats, and the UUP and Alliance one each, with the last most likely to go to the UUP.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

* Member of 1998-2003 Assembly for East Antrim
# Member of 1998-2003 Assembly for East Belfast

Reaction: The DUP's vote management got them three seats, gaining from Roger Hutchinson and Daniel O'Connor, with the UUP and Alliance incumbents holding on. The final margin of Dawson over O'Connor was a substantial 796 votes, with Dawson's running mate only 14 votes ahead of him; the gap between them had never been as much as 300 votes. The UUP candidates had balanced even better, with never more than 66 votes separating Robinson and McCune, but the numbers weren't there and McCune was eventually eliminated.

East Antrim had lost 10.57% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 17.96% in the Northland ward of Carrickfergus to 5.27% in Boneybefore, also in Carrickfergus. 10 constituencies lost fewer voters, 7 lost more.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

Electorate: 60,897; votes cast: 36,327 (59.6%); spoilt votes: 327 (0.9%)
Valid votes: 36,000; UUP majority 128

* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

This result was a welcome relief to the UUP after several disappointing losses elsewhere, though the narrowness of the result was alarming. If this election had been for six seats to an Assembly, the DUP and UUP would each have won two, and Alliance one; the last seat would have been between a fifth Unionist and the SDLP.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

Votes cast in 2001 were as follows:

DUP 10179.5 (29%)
UUP 9280.1 (27%)
Alliance 6219.5 (18%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
SDLP 1320 (4%)
PUP 945.9 (3%)
UUAP 555.9 (2%)
SF 554.3 (2%)
Community Candidates 218.2 (1%)
NIUP 216 (1%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Association 108.3 (1%)
Independents 5093.8 (14%)

These votes if cast in a six-seat STV election across the whole East Antrim constituency would have certainly have given the UUP and DUP two seats and Alliance one. The last seat could have gone to anyone.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from East Antrim

This was a major shock. On the first count it was clear that the UKUP had probably done well enough to take a seat, which in itself was surprising. But as transfers continued, the SDLP candidate, who had started eighth, overtook candidates from first the UUP and then the DUP to take the final place, in an area where he was the SDLP's only local councillor, by 4191 votes to McKee's 4152, a margin of 49 votes, the closest of the whole election.

1997 Local Government Election

UUP 6758 (28%)
DUP 4888.2 (20%)
Alliance 4510.5 (19%)
PUP 991.1 (4%)
SDLP 409 (2%)
Labour 274.7 (1%)
UDP 232.7 (1%)
UKUP 220.0 (1%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Association 176.4 (1%)
Northern Ireland Labour 65.5 (0.27%)
Others 5,591.3 (23%)
Total valid 24,117.5 (41% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

* outgoing MP
ƒ member of the Forum

1996 Forum Election (five seats)

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 10,036 (30%); May Steele, Thomas Robinson elected
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 9,557 (29%); Jack McKee, May Beattie elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 3,957 (12%); Sean Neeson elected
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 2,254 (7%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 2,213 (7%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKU) 2,041 (6%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 1,141 (3%)
Sinn Féin (SF) 619 (2%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 323 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 271 (1%)
Green Party 224 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 218 (1%)
Independent Democratic Unionist Party 107 (0.32%)
Democratic Partnership 102 (0.31%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 86 (0.26%)
Independent McMullan 81 (0.24%)
Workers Party (WP) 69 (0.21%)
Democratic Left (DL) 33 (0.10%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 14 (0.04%)
Independent Chambers 5 (0.01%)

Electorate: 57,989; votes cast: 33,403 (57.6%); spoilt votes: 52 (0.1%); valid votes: 33,351

McKee and Neeson had both been elected to the 1982 Assembly for North Antrim.

See also: Full 2003 results from East Antrim | Full 1998 results from East Antrim | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
 

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 May 2022 by Conal Kelly.