North Belfast


Map and graph by Conal Kelly

detailed map

This constituency takes in the northern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Antrim and Newtownabbey District Council. The member of parliament has been John Finucane since the 2019 election; he defeated Nigel Dodds (DUP) who had represented the constituency since 2001. Dodds had defeated Cecil Walker (UUP) who had represented North Belfast between 1983 and 2001. The DUP and Sinn Féin each hold two of the Assembly seats and Alliance one. See also 1983-1992 North Belfast results, 1973-82 North Belfast results and 1950-1970 North Belfast results.

2024 Westminster election candidates

John Finucane (SF) 17,674 (43.7%, -4.4%)
Phillip Brett (DUP) 12,062 (29.8%, -10.5%)
Nuala McAllister (Alliance) 4,274 (10.6%, nc)
David Clarke (TUV) 2,877 (7.1%)
Carl Whyte (SDLP) 1,413 (3.5%)
Mal O'Hara (Green) 1,206 (3.0%)
Fiona Ferguson (PBP) 946 (2.3%)

With more candidates in the mix, both of the leading parties lost vote share, but the DUP lost more.

In a five-seat Assembly election, this would give SF and the DUP two seats each and Alliance one, which was in fact the result of the 2022 Assembly election.

2019 Westminster notional result on new boundaries:

SF 23,158 (48.1%)
DUP 19,419 (40.3%)
Alliance 5,099 (10.6%)
SDLP 225 (0.5%)
UUP 161 (0.3%)
PBP 57 (0.1%)
Aontu 16 (0.0%)
Conservative 5 (0.0%)

See spreadsheets from the 2011 Assembly election, the 2010 Westminster election, the 2007 Assembly election, the 2005 Westminster election, the 2003 Assembly election, the 2001 Westminster election, the 1998 Assembly election, the 1997 Westminster election and the 1996 Forum/talks election. See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

		DUP	UUP	Cons	Alliance	PBP	SDLP	SF	Aontu
2019 actual		21,135			4,824			23,078
		43.1%			9.8%			47.1%
From North Belfast	To North Belfast	18,103			4,437			22,686
From North Belfast	To West Belfast	-2,863			-348			-208
From North Belfast	To South Antrim	-169			-38			-184
From West Belfast	To North Belfast	1,071			45	57	28	195	16
From South Antrim	To North Belfast	157	132		563		192	267	0
From East Antrim	To North Belfast	89	29	5	54		5	11	0
2019 notional		19,419	161	5	5,099	57	225	23,158	16
		40.3%	0.3%	0.0%	10.6%	0.1%	0.5%	48.1%	0.0%
		-2.8%	0.3%	0.0%	0.8%	0.1%	0.5%	1.0%	0.0%

Recent elections results

	DUP	UUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2024w	29.8%		7.1%	10.6%	5.3%	3.5%	43.7%
2022a	24.3%	5.7%	8.9%	9.5%	8.3%	7.8%	35.5%
2019w	43.1%			9.8%			47.1%
2019lg	29.3%	8.0%	3.8%	11.2%	9.2%	13.4%	25.2%
2017w	46.2%			5.4%	2.2%	4.5%	41.7%
2017a	32.1%	5.8%	5.1%	8.4%	6.1%	13.1%	29.4%
2016a	35.0%	5.4%	7.3%	7.0%	7.7%	10.6%	26.5%
2015w	47.0%			7.2%	3.6%	8.2%	33.9%
2014lg	29.4%	8.4%	12.3%	8.9%	6.4%	9.3%	25.4%
2011a	37.1%	8.2%		6.3%	4.5%	14.0%	31.9%
2011lg	35.1%	8.7%	0.8%	7.6%	4.4%	12.9%	30.5%
2010w	40.0%	7.7%		4.9%	1.1%	12.3%	34.0%
2007a	35.6%	9.6%	5.0%	3.2%	2.4%	14.4%	29.8%
2005w	43.0%	9.5%		2.9%	0.9%	16.7%	27.0%
2005lg	36.2%	10.3%	5.4%	2.2%	4.4%	16.8%	24.5%

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections. Figures for the previous boundaries can be found at the bottom of this page.

2022 Assembly election (five seats)

@Gerry Kelly (SF) 8,395 (18.2%)
@Carál Ní Chuilín (SF) 7,932 (17.2%)
Phillip Brett (DUP) 6,329 (13.8%)
Brian Kingston (DUP) 4,844 (10.5%)
Nuala McAllister (Alliance) 4,381 (9.5%)
Nichola Mallon (SDLP) 3,604 (7.8%)
Ron McDowell (TUV) 3,335 (7.2%)
Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston (UUP) 2,643 (5.7%)
Mal O'Hara (Green) 1,446 (3.1%)
Fiona Ferguson (PBP) 1,059 (2.3%)
Billy Hutchinson (PUP) 762 (1.7%)
Sean Mac Niocaill (Aontú) 640 (1.4%)
Stafford Ward (Ind) 489 (1.1%)
Lily Kerr (WP) 168 (0.4%)

SF 16,327 (35.5%, +6.1%) 2 seats
DUP 11,173 (24.3%, -7.8%) 2 seats
Alliance 4,381 (9.5%, +1.1%) 1 seat
SDLP 3,604 (7.8%, -5.3%) (-1)
TUV 3,335 (7.2%)
UUP 2,643 (5.7%, -0.1%)
Green 1,446 (3.1%, +1.4%)
PBP 1,059 (2.3%, -1.5%)
PUP 762 (1.7%, -3.2%)
Aontú 640 (1.4%)
Ind 489 (1.1%)
WP 168 (0.4%, -0.2%)

Electorate: 75,801
Votes cast: 46,796 (61.7%), spoilt votes 769 (1.6%)
Valid votes: 46,027, quota 7,672

One of the SDLP's four losses to Alliance. Infrastructure Minister Nichola Mallon (SDLP) lost out on the final count to Nuala McAllister (Alliance) by 991.21 votes, with 782 Unionist surplus votes undistributed which would only have widened the gap. Impressive balancing by Sinn Fein saw both of their candidates returned on the first count. This was the Workers Party's best result of the election.

2019 Westminster election

John Finucane (SF) 23,078 (47.1%, +5.4%)
*Nigel Dodds (DUP) 21,135 (43.1%, -3.1%)
Nuala McAllister (Alliance) 4,824 (9.8%, +4.4%)

* outgoing MP.

Electorate: 72,225; Total Poll: 49,425 (68.4%); Invalid Votes: 388 (0.8%); Valid Votes: 49,037

Sinn Fein's only gain of the election; the absence of the SDLP and the Greens made the difference, although the DUP appear to have lost ground to the Alliance also. Nigel Dodds had the fourth highest personal vote tally in Northern Ireland; but John Finucane had the third highest. This is the only seat where SF's vote share increased. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give SF and the DUP two each with the last one going to SF or Alliance.

2019 local government election

From the 2011 census, North Belfast includes:

The entire Belfast DEA of Castle
The entire Belfast DEA of Oldpark
26% of the Belfast DEA of Court
and
83% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Macedon
67% of the Antrim and Newtownabbey DEA of Glengormley Urban.

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2019 results as:

DUP 10,642 (29.3%)
SF 9,148 (25.2%)
SDLP 4,876 (13.4%)
Alliance 4,080 (11.2%)
UUP 2,912 (8.0%)
Green 1,379 (3.8%)
PUP 928 (2.6%)
PBP 831 (2.3%)
Inds 831 (2.3%)
WP 296 (0.8%)
TUV 290 (0.8%)
UKIP 133 (0.4%)

If cast in a five-seat STV election, those votes would give the DUP two seats and SF one, with SF and the SDLP fighting for the second Nationalist seat and Alliance a little more likely than a third Nationalist or Unionist to take the last seat.

2017 Westminster election

*Nigel Dodds (DUP) 21,240 (46.2%, -0.8%)
John Finucane (SF) 19,159 (41.7%, +7.8%)
Sam Nelson (Alliance) 2,475 (5.4%, -1.8%)
Martin McAuley (SDLP) 2,058 (4.5%, -3.7%)
Malachai O'Hara (Green) 644 (1.4%)
Gemma Weir (WP) 360 (0.8%, -1.5%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 68,249; Total Poll: 46,107 (67.6%); Invalid Votes: 158 (0.3%); Valid Votes: 45,949

It was a tight margin for Dodds, but he retained the seat with more votes than SF and the SDLP combined. If cast in a five-seat Assembly election, this would have given the DUP and SF two seats each, with the last more likely to fall to the DUP.

2017 Assembly election (five seats)

@Gerry Kelly (SF) 6,275 (15.1%)
@Carál Ní Chuilín (SF) 5,929 (14.3%)
@Nichola Mallon (SDLP) 5,431 (13.1%)
@Paula Bradley (DUP) 4,835 (11.7%)
@William Humphrey (DUP) 4,418 (10.6%)
@Nelson McCausland (DUP) 4,056 (9.8%)
Nuala McAllister (Alliance) 3,487 (8.4%)
Robert Foster (UUP) 2,418 (5.8%)
Julie-Anne Corr-Johnston (PUP) 2,053 (4.9%)
Fiona Ferguson (PBP) 1,559 (3.8%)
Malachai O'Hara (Green) 711 (1.7%)
Gemma Weir (WP) 248 (0.6%)
Adam Millar (Ind) 66 (0.2%)

DUP 13,309 (32.1%, -2.9%) 2 seats (-1)
SF 12,204 (29.4%, +2.9%) 2 seats
SDLP 5,431 (13.1%, + 2.5%) 1 seat
Alliance 3,487 (8.4%, + 1.4%)
UUP 2,418 (5.8%, +0.4)
PUP 2,053 (4.9%, +1.5%)
PBP 1,559 (3.8%, +0.3%)
Green 711 (1.7%, -0.5%)
WP 248 (0.6%, -0.7%)
Ind 66 (0.2%)

Electorate: 68,187
Votes cast: 42,119 (61.8%, +9.3%), spoilt votes 633 (1.5%)
Valid votes: 41,486, quota 6,915

Outgoing MLA Nelson McCausland (DUP) was never really in the frame, and was overtaken by Nuala McCallister (Alliance) who ended the count 556 votes behind SF's Car�l N� Chuil�n. The three Nationalist candidates were very well-balanced, and managed to get three seats from 42.4% of first preferences, while Unionists got only two seats from 42.8%.

Geoff Dowey of NI First got the lowest number of first preferences of any candidate in the election.

2016 Brexit referendum

Total electorate: 69,692
Turnout: 39,998 (57.4%), 16/18.
Invalid votes: 26 (0.07%)
Votes to REMAIN: 20,128 (50.4% );
Votes to LEAVE: 19,844 (49.6%).
Closest result in Northern Ireland (eleventh highest vote share for REMAIN).

2016 Assembly election (six seats)

@Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 5,695
@Paula Bradley (DUP) 4,591
@William Humphrey (DUP) 4,105
@Nelson McCausland (DUP) 4,087
@Carál Ní Chuilín (Sinn Féin) 4,009
Nichola Mallon (SDLP) 3,866
Nuala McAllister (Alliance) 2,569
Lesley Carroll (UUP) 1,972
Fiona Ferguson (PBP) 1,286
Billy Hutchinson (PUP) 1,238
Malachai O'Hara (Green) 796
Ken Boyle (UKIP) 751
John Miller (TUV) 644
Gemma Weir (WP) 476
Fra Hughes (Ind) 243
Abdo Thabeth (NILRC) 127
Tom Burns (Ind) 87
Geoff Dowey (NI First) 32

DUP 12,783 (35.0%, -2.1%) 3 seats
SF 9,704 (26.5%, -5.4%) 2 seats
SDLP 3,866 (10.6%, -1.4%) 1 seat
Alliance 2,569 (7.0%, +0.9%)
UUP 1,972 (5.4%, -2.8%)
PBP 1,286 (3.5%)
PUP 1,238 (3.4%)
Green 796 (2.2%)
UKIP 751 (2.1%)
TUV 644 (1.8%)
WP 476 (1.3%, +0.3%)
Inds 330 (0.9%)
NILRC 127 (0.3%)
NI First 32 (0.1%)

Electorate: 70,872
Votes cast: 37,193 (52.5%, +2.2%), spoilt votes 619 (1.7%)
Valid votes 36,574, quota 5,225

No change among the parties with all six sitting MLAs re-elected. Nuala McAllister (Alliance) was 1011.68 behind Nicola Mallon (SDLP) on the last count, with 744 undistributed DUP surplus votes which would have narrowed the gap.

Geoff Dowey of NI First got the lowest number of first preferences of any candidate in the election.

2015 Westminster election

*Nigel Dodds (DUP) 19,096 (47.0%, +7.0%)
Gerry Kelly (SF) 13,770 (33.9%, -0.1%)
Alban Maginness (SDLP) 3,338 (8.2%, -4.1%)
Jason O'Neill (Alliance) 2,941 (7.2%, +2.4%)
Gemma Weir (WP) 919 (2.3%)
Fra Hughes (Ind) 529 (1.3%)
Electorate: 68,553; Total Poll: 40,887 (59.6%); Invalid Votes: 294 (0.7%); Valid Votes: 40,593

Dodds benefited from the DUP's pact with the UUP, though in fact on recent electoral showings he didn't need it and would have won anyway.

If cast in a six-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP three seats, SF two and the SDLP one, with Alliance challenging strongly for the last place.

2014 local government election

From the 2011 census, North Belfast includes:

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2014 results as:

DUP 9342 (29%)
SF 8076 (25%)
SDLP 2950 (9%)
Alliance 2840 (9%)
PUP 2732 (9%)
UUP 2668 (8%)
TUV 1191 (4%)
Inds 1069 (3%)
NI21 510 (2%)
WP 432 (1%)

If cast in a six-seat STV election, those votes would certainly give the DUP and SF two seats each. A third Unionist seat would probably go to the PUP ahead of the UUP, and the last seat looks most likely SDLP but could go to Alliance if they were lucky with transfers.

2011 Assembly Election (six seats)

@Gerry Kelly (SF) 6,674 (19.9%)
@Nelson McCausland (DUP) 5,200 (15.5%)
@Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,025 (12.0%)
@William Humphrey (DUP) 3,724 (11.1%)
Paula Bradley (DUP) 3,488 (10.4%)
@Carál Ní Chuilín (SF) 2,999 (9.0%)
@Fred Cobain (UUP) 2,758 (8.2%)
Billy Webb (Alliance) 2,096 (6.3%)
Raymond McCord (Independent) 1,176 (3.5%)
J.J. Magee (SF) 998 (3.0%)
John Lavery (WP) 332 (1.0%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

DUP 12,412 (37.1%, +1.5%) 3 seats
SF 10,671 (31.9%, +2.1%) 2 seats
SDLP 4,025 (12.0%, -2.4%) 1 seat
UUP 2,758 (8.2%, -1.4%) (-1)
Alliance 2,096 (6.3%, +3.1%)
Ind 1,176 (3.5%, -0.9%)
WP 332 (1.0%, +0.5%)

Electorate: 68,119
Votes cast: 34,280 (50.3%), spoilt votes 810 (2.4%)
Valid votes 33,470, quota 4,782

One of the DUP's gains, here from the UUP's Fred Cobain who finally ebbed beneath the level of viability; he was 442 votes behind the DUP's Paul Bradley on the last count, with 328 Nationalist surplus votes undistributed. On previous counts, Bradley had picked up twice as many Natonalist transfers as Cobain, so the real margin of defeat is probably greater.

2011 local government election

My projection of the votes cast in Belfast Castle, Oldpark, two wards of Court, Newtownabbey Macedon and five wards of Antrim Line:

DUP 11,711 (35.1%)
SF 10,166 (30.5%)
SDLP 4,298 (12.9%)
UUP 2,909 (8.7%)
Alliance 2,536 (7.6%)
IRSP 379 (1.1%)
PUP 258 (0.8%)
WP 170 (0.5%)
Inds 921 (2.8%)

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would have given the DUP and SF two seats, and the SDLP one, with the last between a third DUP candidate, the UUP and Alliance.

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Nigel Dodds (DUP) 14,812 (40.0%, -5.6%)
@Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 12,588 (34.0%, +5.4%)
@Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4,544 (12.3%, -3.9%)
@Fred Cobain (UCUNF) 2,837 (7.7%, +0.6%)
William Webb (Alliance) 1,809 (4.9%, +3.5%)
Martin McAuley (Independent) 403 (1.1%)
Electorate: 65,504; Total Poll: 37,233 (56.8%); Invalid Votes: 240 (0.6%); Valid Votes: 36,993

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

Dodds will be happy to have retained his seat, but SF have been gradually closing the gap here over the last couple of elections. These votes, if cast in a six-seat Assembly election, would give the DUP and SF two seats each, the SDLP one, and the last seat between a third DUP candidate, the UUP and possibly Alliance.

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

Full details of each count are available here.

*Nigel Dodds MP (DUP) 6973 (23.5%)
*Gerry Kelly (SF) 5414 (18.2%)
Carál Ní Chuilín (SF) 3680 (12.4%)
*Fred Cobain (UUP) 2498 (8.4%)
*Nelson McCausland (DUP) 2462 (8.3%)
*Alban Maginness (SDLP) 2212 (7.4%)
Pat Convery (SDLP) 1868 (6.3%)
William Humphrey (DUP) 1673 (5.6%)
Raymond McCord (Independent) 1320 (4.4%)
Peter Emerson (Green) 590 (2.0%)
Thomas McCullough (Alliance) 486 (1.6%)
^Robert McCartney (UKUP) 360 (1.2%)
John Lavery (WP) 139 (0.5%)
Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 40 (0.1%)

*Elected in 2003 from North Belfast
^Elected in 2003 from North Down

DUP 11,108 (37.4%, +3.2%) 2 seats
SF 9,094 (30.6%, +3.6%) 2 seats
SDLP 4,080 (13.7%, -3.1%) 1 seat
UUP 2,498 (8.4%, -1.0%) 1 seat
Ind 1,320 (4.4%)
Green 590 (2.0%, +1.2%)
Alliance 486 (1.6%, +0.7%)
UKUP 360 (1.2%)
WP 139 (0.5%, +0.2%)
Rainbow George 0.1% (+0.1%)

Electorate 49,372
Votes cast 30,067 (60.9%); spoilt votes 352 (1.2%)
Valid votes 29,715; quota 4,246

The DUP had a good chance at a third seat here, but balanced very poorly among their candidates enabling Cobain to retain his seat for the UUP; on the last count Humphrey DUP) was 792 votes behind McCausland (also DUP) who was in turn 149 votes behind Cobain (UUP), with all other votes distributed. Notable for a relatively good performance from dissident Unionist candidate Raymond McCord.

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@ Nigel Dodds (DUP) 13935 (45.6% +4.8%)
@Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) 8747 (28.6% +3.4%)
@Alban Maginness (SDLP) 4950 (16.2% -4.8%)
@Fred Cobain (UUP) 2154 (7.1% -4.9%)
Marjorie Hawkins (Alliance) 438 (1.4%)
Marcella Delaney (Workers Party) 165 (0.5% -0.1%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 151 (0.5% +0.3%)

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give the DUP three seats, SF two and the SDLP one.

2005 Local Government Election (7 June)

The constituency comprises 14 of 51 wards in Belfast (all 6 wards in the Castle DEA, all 6 wards in the Oldpark DEA, and 2 of the 5 wards in the Court DEA [Crumlin and Woodvale]) and 5 of 25 wards in Newtownabbey (5 of the 6 wards in the Macedon DEA [Abbey, Coole, Dunanney, Valley and Whitehouse]).

DUP 11,147.7 (37.0%)
Sinn Fein 8,028.1 (26.6%)
SDLP 5,007.7 (16.6%)
UUP 2,775.2 (9.2%)
PUP 1,017.1 (3.4%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Assoc 684.2 (2.3%)
Green 432 (1.4%)
Alliance 270 (0.9%)
Independents 802.6 (2.7%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is tricky because the North Belfast constituency breaches two local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole North Belfast constituency. The DUP, and SF would get two seats each, and the SDLP one, with the last between the UUP and a third DUP runner.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Nigel Dodds (DUP) 9276 (29.4%)
*Gerry Kelly (SF) 5524 (17.5%)
*Alban Maginness (SDLP) 3186 (10.1%)
Kathy Stanton (SF) 2990 (9.5%)
*Fred Cobain (UUP) 2961 (9.4%)
Pat Convery (SDLP) 2108 (6.7%)
Nelson McCausland (DUP) 1500 (4.8%)
*Billy Hutchinson (PUP) 1358 (4.3%)
*Fraser Agnew (UUC) 802 (2.5%)
Frank McCoubrey (Ind) 469 (1.5%)
Eliz Byrne McCullough (NIWC) 467 (1.5%)
Marjorie Hawkins (Alliance) 305 (1.0%)
Peter Emerson (Green) 261 (0.8%)
Raymond McCord (Ind) 218 (0.7%)
Marcella Delaney (WP) 90 (0.3%)
John Gallagher (VFYS) 17 (0.1%)

DUP 10,776 (34.2%, +12.9%)
SF 8,514 (27.0%, +5.7%)
SDLP 5,294 (16.8%, -4.3%)
UUP 2,961(9.4%, -1.5%)
PUP 1,358 (4.3%, -4.8%)
UUC 802 (2.5%)
Inds 687 (2.2%)
NIWC 467 (1.5%)
Alliance 305 (1.0%, -2.1%)
Green 261 (0.8%, +0.2%)
WP 90 (0.3%, -0.1%)
VFYS 17 (0.1%)

Electorate 51,353
Votes cast 31,997 (62.3%); spoilt votes 465 (1.5%)
Valid votes 31,532; quota 4,505

Reaction: As widely predicted, DUP and SF took extra seats at the expense of Agnew and Hutchinson. The final result was not even close, with 1521 votes separating Stanton and Hutchinson, and an undistributed SDLP surplus of 1064 which would only have widened the gap.

North Belfast had lost 15.90% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 23.46% in the Ardoyne ward of Belfast to 9.86% in Cavehill ward, also in Belfast. 15 constituencies lost fewer voters, only South and West Belfast lost more.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

@Nigel Dodds (DUP) 16,718 (40.8%)
@Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein) 10,331 (25.2%)
@Alban Maginness (SDLP) 8,592 (21.0%)
*Cecil Walker (UUP) 4,904 (12.0%)
Marcella Delaney (WP) 253 (0.6%)
Rainbow George Weiss (Vote for Yourself Party) 134 (0.3%) Best result in Northern Ireland

Electorate: 60,941; votes cast: 41,309 (67.7%); spoilt votes: 377 (0.9%)
Valid votes: 40,932; DUP majority 6,387

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

The least unexpected of the DUP's three gains in 2001, though the collapse of Walker's vote was dramatic - partly caused by a disastrous TV performance a few weeks before the election. If this had been a six-seat Assembly election, the DUP and SF would both have won two, the SDLP one, and the last seat would have been between the UUP and DUP.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

DUP 10028.3 (25%)
SF 9867.3 (25%)
SDLP 6969 (18%)
UUP 4218.9 (11%)
PUP 3059.3 (8%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
Alliance 1288.2 (3%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Association 541.7 (1%) Best result in Northern Ireland
Women's Coalition 253 (1%)
Community Candidates 133.3 (0.3%)
Workers Party 84 (0.2%)
Ulster Third Way 11.2 (0.03%)
Independents 3407.0 (8%)
Total valid 39802.1

If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole North Belfast constituency. And it is very tight. The DUP, SF and the SDLP certainly have a seat each. SF would be pretty likely to get a second seat. In that case there would be two more Unionist seats, with the DUP and UUP most likely to take them, but the PUP would have an outside chance.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Nigel Dodds (DUP) 7,476 votes
*Alban Maginness (SDLP) 6,196 votes
*Gerry Kelly (SF) 5,610 votes
Billy Hutchinson (PUP) 3,751 votes
Martina McIlkenny (SF) 3,165 votes
Fraser Agnew (UU) 2,976 votes
Martin Morgan (SDLP) 2,465 votes
Fred Cobain (UUP) 2,415 votes
*David Browne (UUP) 2,064 votes
#Eric Smyth (DUP) 1,288 votes
Glyn Roberts (All) 1,267 votes
#John White (UDP) 911 votes
Stephen Cooper (UKU) 748 votes
Peter Emerson (Green) 257 votes
Sam McAughtry (Lab) 255 votes
Steven Doran (WP) 155 votes
Kevin Blair (NLP) 76 votes
Delores Quinn (Ind Nat Commty Cand) 50 votes

SF 8,775 (21.34%) 1 seat
DUP 8,764 (21.31%) 1 seat
SDLP 8,661 (21.06%) 1 seat
UUP 4,479 (10.89%) 1 seat
PUP 3,751 (9.12%) 1 seat
UU 2,976 (7.24%) 1 seat
All 1,267 (3.08%)
UDP 911 (2.22%)
UKU 748 (1.82%)
Green 257 (0.62%)
Lab 255 (0.62%)
WP 155 (0.38%)
NLP 76 (0.18%)
Ind NCC 50 (0.12%)

Electorate 62,541
Votes cast 42,066 (67.3%); spoilt votes 941 (2.2%)
Valid votes: 41,125; quota: 5,876

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from North Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

The success of 'Ulster Unionist' Fraser Agnew, and the failure of any of the three main parties (SDLP, SF, DUP) to win a second seat, made North Belfast one of the shock results of the election. The UUP polled a mere 11% in a constituency which they represent at Westminster, and were lucky to beat the SDLP's Martin Morgan for the last seat, by 4,971 votes to 4,682. North Belfast remains Northern Ireland's most fissiparous seat.

1997 Local Government Election

Sinn Féin 7,682 (22%)
Ulster Unionist Party 6,707.4 (20%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 4,807 (14%)
Democratic Unionist Party 4,707.1 (14%)
Progressive Unionist Party 3,120 (9%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 1,750.8 (5%)
Ulster Democratic Party 1491.3 (4%)
Labour 919.2 (3%)
Newtownabbey Ratepayers Association 397.5 (1%)
Northern Ireland Labour 327.5 (1%)
Green Party 318 (1%)
Women's Coalition 209 (1%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party 187.5 (1%)
Workers Party 162 (0.47%)
Ulster Independence Movement 8 (0.02%)
Natural Law Party 5 (0.01%)
Others 799.5 (2%)
Total valid 34162.3 (52.67% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

*Cecil Walker (Ulster Unionist Party) 21,478 (52%)
ƒ Alban Maginness (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 8,454 (20%)
ƒ Gerry Kelly (Sinn Féin) 8,375 (20%)
Tom Campbell (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 2,221 (5%)
Peter Emerson (Green Party) 539 (1%)
Paul Treanor (Workers' Party) 297 (1%)
Andrea Gribben (Natural Law Party) 88 (0.21%)
Turnout 41,452 (64.19%)

* outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum

1996 Forum election (five seats)

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 7,778 (19%); Nigel Dodds, William Snoddy elected
Sinn Féin (SF) 7,681 (19%); Gerry Kelly elected
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 7,493 (19%); Alban Maginness elected
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 6,938 (17%); David Browne elected
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 3,777 (9%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 1,874 (5%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 1,670 (4%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 1,329 (3%)
Labour 571 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 486 (1%)
Workers Party 274 (WP) (1%)
Green Party 265 (1%)
Democratic Left (DL) 123 (0.30%)
Ulster's Independent Voice (UIV) 63 (0.16%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 41 (0.10%)
Independent McMullan 25 (0.06%)
Independent Chambers 21 (0.05%)

Electorate: 65,411; votes cast: 40,528 (61.9%); spoilt votes: 105 (0.2%); valid votes: 40,423

I was the lead candidate on Alliance's list for the 1996 Forum elections, and had been selected as the prospective parliamentary candidate for the Westminster election, before I went to work in Bosnia and withdrew (for the time being) from active politics in Northern Ireland. In the end I am certain that Tom Campbell got a better result in 1997 than I would have.

If the 1996 Forum election had been to elect six delegates by STV, and the voters' choice of parties translated directly to first-preferences for candidates, the DUP, the UUP, Sinn Fein, the SDLP and probably the PUP would all have won one seat. The last seat would have been an awfully tight squeeze between the second candidates of the DUP, the UUP, Sinn Fein, and the SDLP. Although the UUP and SDLP would have had fewer first preferences than DUP and Sinn Fein, they would both have benefited from transfers (from me!) to pull them ahead, and the UUP would probably have just shaded it.

Results 1996-2007

	DUP	UUP	PUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2007a	37%	8%		6%	2%	3%	14%	31%
2005w	46%	7%			1%	1%	16%	29%
2005lg	37%	9%	3%		1%	6%	17%	27%
2003a	34%	9%	4%	4%	1%	2%	17%	27%
2001w	41%	12%				1%	21%	26%
2001lg	25%	11%	8%		3%	11%	18%	25%
1998a	21%	11%	9%	11%	3%	2%	21%	21%
1997lg	14%	20%	9%	5%	5%	9%	14%	22%
1997w		52%			5%	2%	20%	20%
1996f	19%	17%	9%	8%	4%	5%	19%	19%

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 May 2022 by Conal Kelly.

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