Newry and Armagh

Map and graph by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in the Armagh part of Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon District Council and the western part of Newry, Mourne and Down District Council. The member of parliament is Micky Brady (SF), who replaced his party colleague Conor Murphy (SF) in 2015; Murphy had won the seat when Seamus Mallon (SDLP) retired in 2005. Mallon had defeated Jim Nicholson (UUP) in a 1986 by-election. Sinn Fein have three Assembly seats here, and the other two are held by the DUP and SDLP. See the 1983-1992 Newry and Armagh results.

2019 Westminster notional result on new boundaries:

Results of recent elections

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections.

2022 Assembly election (five seats)

All five out-going MLAs were comfortably returned in Newry and Armagh. The DUP secured the last seat 2,892 votes ahead of the TUV, with 630 undistributed Nationalist surplus votes which might have increased the margin. Newry and Armagh had the highest quota of the election at 9,815 compared with the average of 8,129 and the lowest of 6,706 in East Antrim. Newry and Armagh, along with East Antrim, had the fewest number of counts of the election, with just five.

2019 Westminster election

*Mickey Brady (SF) 20,287 (40.%, -8.0%)
@William Irwin (DUP) 11,000 (21.7%, -2.9%)
Pete Byrne (SDLP) 9,449 (18.6%, +1.7%)
Jackie Coade (Alliance) 4,211 (8.3%, 95.9%)
Sam Nicholson (UUP) 4,204 (8.3%, 0.0.%)
Martin Kelly (Aontú) 1,628 (3.2%, +3.2%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 81,226; Total Poll: 51,120 (62.9%); Invalid Votes: 341 (0.7%); Valid Votes: 50,779

Successful defense by the incumbent. SF votes went to Aontú, Alliance and the SDLP in that order, with Alliance also picking up from the DUP. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would make the third SF seat untenable, with Alliance or the UUP (or a very lucky second DUP candidate) benefiting.

2019 local government election

From the 2011 census, Newry and Armagh includes:

2017 Westminster election

*Mickey Brady (SF) 25,666 (47.9%, +6.8%)
@William Irwin (DUP) 13,177 (24.6%)
@Justin McNulty (SDLP) 9,055 (16.9%, -7.2%)
Sam Nicholson (UUP) 4,425 (8.3%, -24.4%)
Jackie Coade (Alliance) 1,256 (2.3%, +0.6%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 78,266; Total Poll: 53,900 (6839%); Invalid Votes: 321 (0.6%); Valid Votes: 53,579

SF successfully defended the seat to Brady. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would elect three SF MLAs and one DUP, with the last a very close fight between a second Unionist (probably DUP) and the third SF candidate.

2017 Assembly election (five seats)

One of a number of seats where on previous numbers there could have been two Unionist seats, but in fact Danny Kennedy of the UUP finished 1,079 votes behind Conor Murphy of SF. An undistrubuted DUP surplus of 606 would have reduced that margin but could not have overcome it. It is notable that 1,102 SDLP surplus votes on the last round (which had started with Alliance, CISTA and Greens) split 501 non-transferable, 337 to SF and 264 to the UUP.

2016 Brexit referendum

2016 Assembly election (six seats)

Five MLA's re-elected, and two SDLP candidates (one of whom was previously elected for a neighbouring constituency) fighting for their party's vacant seat. McNulty started 852 votes ahead of McKevitt and finished 659 votes in front.

2015 Westminster election

Mickey Brady (SF) 20,488 (41.1%, -0.9%)
Danny Kennedy (UUP) 16,312 (32.7%, +13.6%)
Justin McNulty (SDLP) 12,026 (24.1%, +0.7%)
Kate Nicholl (Alliance) 841 (1.7%, +0.5%)
Robert Rigby (Conservative) 210 (0.4%)
Electorate: 77,633; Total Poll: 50,276 (64.8%); Invalid Votes: 386 (0.8%); Valid Votes: 49,877

The last seat to declare on election night, and possibly the least surprising. Some were talking up the chances of the SDLP candidate, but the needle barely wavered.

If cast in a six-seat Assembly election, these votes would give SF three seats, the UUP two and the SDLP one.

2014 local government election

From the 2011 census, Newry and Armagh includes:

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

This was the only constituency where there were no women candidates, and also the only constituency where all six MLA's elected in 2007 were standing; all six were re-elected, O'Hanlon of the SDLP ending 610 votes behind SF's Brady - though with a 478-vote SDLP surplus undistributed, the result was closer than it looked, and I understand that Brady was made to sweat until his running-mates' transfers came through.

2011 local government election

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Conor Murphy (Sinn Féin) 18,857 (42.0%, +0.6%)
@Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 10,526 (23.4%, -1.8%)
@Danny Kennedy (UCUNF) 8,558 (19.1%, +5.2)
William Irwin (DUP) 5,764 (12.8%, -5.6%)
William Frazer (Independent) 656 (1.5%)
Andrew Muir (Alliance) 545 (1.2%)
Electorate: 74,308; Total Poll: 45,249 (60.9%); Invalid Votes: 343 (0.8%); Valid Votes: 44,906

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

A decent defence from Murphy; more interesting is the switch between the two Unionist parties, this beig I think the only seat where the DUP were outpolled by the UUP. However, a six-seat Assembly election on these votes would give no change to the current distribution of MLAs.

2007 Assembly Election

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

@Conor Murphy (Sinn Féin) 20,965 (41.4% +10.5%)
@Dominic Bradley (SDLP) 12,770 (25.2% -12.2%)
@Paul Berry (DUP) 9,311 (18.4% -1.0%)
@Danny Kennedy (UUP) 7,025 (13.9% +1.6%)
Gerry Markey (Independent) 625 (1.2%)

@ Member of the Assembly

SF's most widely anticipated (and, as it turned out, only) gain. These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would have given SF three seats and the SDLP, DUP and UUP one each.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

The Newry and Armagh constituency contains all 22 wards in Armagh and 17 of the 30 wards in Newry and Mourne (all 7 wards in the Newry Town DEA, all 5 wards in the Slieve Gullion DEA, and 5 of the 6 wards in The Fews DEA [Bessbrook, Camlough, Derrymore, Newtownhamilton and Tullyhappy])

Sinn Fein 19,449.8 (38.5%)
SDLP 12,124.8 (24.0%)
DUP 8,527.5 (16.9%)
UUP 8,142.8 (16.1%)
Independents 2,338 (4.6%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is difficult because the Newry and Armagh constituency breaches one electoral area boundary. These votes, cast in a six seat STV election, would have elected two from SF and one each from the SDLP, DUP and UUP, with the last seat between the SDLP and SF.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

Electorate: 72,466; votes cast: 56,208 (77.5%); spoilt votes: 587 (1.0%)
Valid votes: 55,621; SDLP majority 3,576

* outgoing MP
@ member of the Assembly

The narrowness of Mallon's victory surprised many observers. If this had been a six-seat Assembly election, the Nationalist parties would have won two seats each and the Unionist parties one each.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

SF 19161.3 (35%)
SDLP 15237.8 (28%)
UUP 10115.7 (18%)
DUP 8254.5 (15%)
NIWC 209 (0.4%)
Independents 2091 (4%)
Total valid 55069.3

The above figures in a six-seat STV election would have given two seats each to Sinn Fein and the SDLP, and one each to the UUP and the DUP.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Newry and Armagh

A good result for the DUP; not so good for the UUP who held this parliamentary seat from 1983 to 1986. The three SF candidates balanced their votes well but one was overtaken by the SDLP's John Fee, who finished with 7,169 votes, far ahead of his running mate Frank Feely's 5,875. Feely had been elected at all four previous regional elections.

1997 Local Government Election

Social Democratic and Labour Party 15,705.4 (34%)
Ulster Unionist Party 13,778.6 (30%)
Sinn Féin 11,408.8 (25%)
Democratic Unionist Party 3,117 (7%)
Alliance 348 (1%)
Others 1,959 (4%)
Total valid 46489.8 (65.93% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

1996 Forum election (five seats)

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 16,775 (34%) 2 seats (Seamus Mallon, Frank Feeley elected)
Sinn Féin (SF) 12,585 (26%) 2 seats (Patrick McNamee, Maria Caraher elected)
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 11,047 (22%) 1 seat (Danny Kennedy elected)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 4,774 (10%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 1,037 (2%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 640 (1%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 474 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 356 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 262 (1%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 257 (1%)
Workers Party (WP) 208 (0.42%)
Green Party 205 (0.42%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 173 (0.35%)
Conservative Party (Con) 131 (0.27%)
Democratic Partnership 114 (0.23%)
Independent Democratic Unionist Party 55 (0.11%)
Democratic Left (DL) 46 (0.09%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 31 (0.06%)
Independent Chambers 12 (0.02%)

Electorate: 69,887; votes cast: 49,347 (70.6%); spoilt votes: 165 (0.3%); valid votes: 49,182

Both Mallon and Feeley had been elected to the 1973 Assembly, the 1975 Convention and the 1982 Assembly, for Armagh and South Down respectively (Mallon, however, was disqualified after the 1982 election).

Results 1996-2007

See also: Full 2003 results from Newry and Armagh | Full 1998 results from Newry and Armagh | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 May 2022 by Conal Kelly.