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| Map and graph by Conal Kelly | |
This constituency is the rural north-eastern corner of Northern Ireland. It takes in the Ballymoney/Ballycastle areas of Causeway Coast and Glens District Council, and the western (Ballymena) part of Mid and East Antrim District Council. The member of parliament since 2010 has been Ian Paisley jr (DUP), whose father first won the seat, defeating the UUP incumbent, in 1970. The DUP, TUV, UUP, SF, and Alliance each hold one Assembly seat here. See 1983-1992 North Antrim results, 1973-1982 North Antrim results and 1950-1970 North Antrim results.
The constituency shrank considerably in the 1983 boundary review, losing territory to East and South Antrim, and lost three Moyle wards to East Antrim in the latest round of changes. This made the new constituency 2.7% less Catholic, and 2.6% more Protestant than the old. The 2011 census found that the average age of North Antrim residents was 38.82 (5th of the 18 constituencies), and the median age 39 (equal 4th). 28.39% of the population were or had been brought up as Catholics (13th of the 18 constituencies), 66.03% were or had been brought up as Protestants (6th), 0.74% were of non-Christian religious background (11th), and 4.84% had no religion (10th).| DUP | UUP | TUV |
Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2022a | 25.7% | 20.5% | 21.3% | 9.5% | 0.8% | 3.8% | 18.5% | |
| 2019w | 47.4% | 18.5% | 14.1% | 0.6% | 6.7% | 12.8% | ||
| 2019lg |
30.6% | 16.9% | 16.6% |
0.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 4.1% | 15.3% |
| 2017w | 58.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 16.3% | ||
| 2017a |
40.6% | 12.5% | 16.0% |
5.4% | 2.2% | 7.3% | 15.8% | |
| 2016a |
43.1% | 10.7% | 17.9% |
2.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 7.5% | 12.9% |
| 2015w |
43.2% | 12.1% | 15.7% |
4.1% | 5.6% | 0.1% | 7.0% | 12.3% |
| 2014lg |
30.0% | 22.8% | 16.0% |
1.0% | 4.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 12.8% |
| 2011a |
47.6% | 11.7% | 11.7% |
4.6% | 9.1% | 15.3% | ||
| 2011lg |
42.5% | 15.9% | 10.7% |
1.0% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 12.6% | |
| 2010w | 46.4% | 10.9% | 16.8% |
1.4% | 3.2% | 8.8% | 12.4% | |
| 2007a |
50.9% | 14.8% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 11.1% | 14.4% | |
| 2005w | 56.8% | 15.0% | 3.1% | 11.0% | 14.2% | |||
| 2005lg | 51.7% | 19.7% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 4.8% | 9.6% | 13.1% |
NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections onto the
new boundaries. Figures for the old boundaries can be found at the bottom
of this page.
NB also that the UUP supported a Conservative candidate in 2010 (hence
change of colour in above table).
| @Robin Swann (UUP) 9,530 (18.8%) @Philip McGuigan (SF) 9,348 (18.5%) @Jim Allister (TUV) 8,282 (16.4%) @Mervyn Storey (DUP) 6,747 (13.3%) @Paul Frew (DUP) 6,242 (12.3%) Patricia O'Lynn (Alliance) 4,810 (9.5%) Matthew Armstrong (TUV) 2,481 (4.9%) Eugene Reid (SDLP) 1,919 (3.8%) Bethany Ferris (UUP) 856 (1.7%) Paul Veronica (Green) 343 (0.7%) Laird Shingleton (Ind) 66 (0.1%) @ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved. |
DUP 12,989 (25.7%, -14.9%) 1
seat (-1) TUV 10,763 (21.3%, +5.3%) 1 seat UUP 10,386 (20.5%, +8.0%) 1 seat SF 9,348 (18.5%, +2.7%) 1 seat Alliance 4,810 (9.5%, +4.1%) 1 seat SDLP 1,919 (3.8%, -3.5%) Green 343 (0.7%, -0.4%) Ind 66 (0.1%) Electorate: 81,935 Votes cast: 51,220 (62.5%, -0.7%), spoilt votes 596 (1.2%) Valid votes: 50,624, quota 8,438 |
*Ian Paisley (DUP) 20,860 (47.4%, -11.5%)
@Robin Swann (UUP) 8,139 (18.5%, +11.3%)
Patricia O'Lynn (Alliance) 6,231 (14.1%, +8.5%)
Cara McShane (SF) 5,632 (12.8%, -3.5%)
Margaret Anne McKillop (SDLP) 2,943 (6.7%, +1.4%)
Stephen Palmer (Ind) 246 (0.6%, +0.6%)
* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.
Electorate: 77,134; Total Poll: 44,355 (57.5%); Invalid Votes: 304
(0.7%); Valid Votes: 44,051
A comfortable victory for Paisley, albeit on a reduced share of the vote.
The absence of the TUV seems to have favoured the UUP, with DUP votes also
going to Alliance here as elsewhere. In a five-seat Assembly election,
these votes would give the DUP two seats and the UUP one. The last two
seats would be between a third DUP, SF and Alliance.
I do not know if independent candidate Stephen Palmer is the same person as Thomas Stephen Palmer, an independent candidate here in 2015.
From the 2011 census, North Antrim includes:
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Ballymena
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Bannside
96% of the Mid and East Antrim DEA of Braid
and
The entire Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Ballymoney
76% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of The Glens
28% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Causeway
With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2019
results as:
DUP 12,155 (30.6%)
UUP 6,708 (16.9%)
TUV 6,582 (16.6%)
SF 6,092 (15.3%)
Alliance 3,084 (7.8%)
Inds 3,051 (7.7%)
SDLP 1,635 (4.1%)
UKIP 305 (0.8%)
Green 94 (0.2%)
If cast in a five-seat STV election, those votes would give the DUP two
seats and the UUP, TUV and SF one each.
*Ian Paisley (DUP) 28,521 (58.9%, +15.7%)
Cara McShane (SF) 7,878 (16.3%, +4.0%)
Jackson Minford (UUP) 3,482 (7.2%, -4.9%)
Timothy Gaston (TUV) 3,282 (6.8%, -8.9%)
Patricia O'Lynn (Alliance) 2,723 (5.6%, ±0)
Declan O'Loan (SDLP) 2,574 (5.3%, -1.7%)
* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly
Electorate: 75,657; Total Poll: 48,580 (64.2%); Invalid Votes: 112
(0.2%); Valid Votes: 48,468
A convincing vistory for the incumbent. In a five-seat Assembly election,
these votes would have elected three DUP MLAs, one SF and a fourth
Unionist, most likely a fourth DUP candidate.
| @Philip Mcguigan (SF) 7,600
(15.8%) @Paul Frew (DUP) 6,975 (14.5%) @Mervyn Storey (DUP) 6,857 (14.3%) @Jim Allister (TUV) 6,214 (12.9%) @Robin Swann (UUP) 6,022 (12.5%) @Phillip Logan (DUP) 5,708 (11.9%) Connor Duncan (SDLP) 3,519 (7.3%) Patricia O'Lynn (Alliance) 2,616 (5.4%) Timothy Gaston (TUV) 1,505 (3.1%) Mark Bailey (Green) 530 (1.1%) Monica Digney (Ind) 435 (0.9%) Adam Mcbride (Ind) 113 (0.2%) @ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved. |
DUP 19,540 (40.6%, -2.5%) 2
seats (-1) TUV 7,719 (16.0%, -1.9%) 1 seat SF 7,600 (15.8%, +2.9%) 1 seat UUP 6,022 (12.5%, +1.8%) 1 seat SDLP 3,519 (7.3%, -0.2%) Alliance 2,616 (5.4%, +2.2%) Ind 548 (1.1%) Green 530 (1.1%, -0.2%) Electorate: 76,739 Votes cast: 48,518 (63.2%, +10.3%), spoilt votes 424 (0.9%) Valid votes: 48,094, quota 8,016 |
| @Paul Frew (DUP) 5,429 (13.2%) @Jim Allister (TUV) 5,399 (13.2%) @Mervyn Storey (DUP) 5,382 (13.1%) @Daithi McKay (Sinn Féin) 5,297 (12.9%) Phillip Logan (DUP) 3,635 (8.9%) @Robin Swann (UUP) 3,585 (8.7%) Connor Duncan (SDLP) 3,093 (7.5%) @David McIlveen (DUP) 3,209 (7.8%) Timothy Gaston (TUV) 1,955 (4.8%) Stephen McFarland (Alliance) 1,318 (3.2%) Donna Anderson (UKIP) 1,027 (2.5%) Andrew Wright (UUP) 821 (2.0%) Jennifer Breslin (Green) 513 (1.3%) Kathryn Johnston (NI Labour) 243 (0.6%) James Simpson (Conservatives) 92 (0.2%) @ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved. |
DUP 17,655 (43.1%, -4.5%) 3
seats TUV 7,354 (17.9%, +6.2%) 1 seat Sinn Féin 5,297 (12.9%, -2.4%) 1 seat UUP 4,406 (10.7%, -1.0%) 1 seat SDLP 3,093 (7.5%, -1.6%) Alliance 1,318 (3.2%, -1.4%) UKIP 1,027 (2.5%,) Green 513 (1.3%) NI Labour 243 (0.6%) Conservatives 92 (0.2%) Electorate 78,337 Votes cast: 41,464 (52.9%); spoilt votes 466 (1.1%) Valid votes: 40,998; quota 5,857 |
*Ian Paisley (DUP) 18,107 (43.2%, -3.2%)
Timothy Gaston (TUV) 6,561 (15.7%, -1.1%)
Daithí McKay (SF) 5,143 (12.3%, -0.1%)
Robin Swann (UUP) 5,054 (12.1%, +1.1%)
Declan O'Loan (SDLP) 2,925 (7.0%, -1.8%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 2,351 (5.6%, +2.4%)
Robert Hill (UKIP) 1,341 (3.2%)
Carol Freeman (Conservative) 368 (0.9%)
Thomas Palmer (Independent) 57 (0.1%)
Electorate: 75,876; Total Poll: 42,116 (55.5%); Invalid Votes: 209 (0.5%);
Valid Votes: 41,907
A solid defence by Paisley.
If cast in a six-seat Assembly election, thses votes would give the DUP
three seats, and one each to TUV, SF and UUP.
From the 2011 census, North Antrim includes:
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Ballymena
The entire Mid and East Antrim DEA of Bannside
96% of the Mid and East Antrim DEA of Braid
and
The entire Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Ballymoney
76% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of The Glens
28% of the Causeway Coast and Glens DEA of Causeway
With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2014
results as:
DUP 12470 (30%)
UUP 9482 (23%)
TUV 6694 (16%)
SF 5327 (13%)
SDLP 2820 (7%)
Inds 2461 (6%)
Alliance 1662 (4%)
NI21 286 (1%)
PUP 177 (0.4%)
Cons 129 (0.3%)
UKIP 79 (0.2%)
If cast in a six-seat STV election, those votes would certainly give the
DUP two seats and the UUP, TUV and SF one each. The last would certainly
go to a fifth Unionist, with the UUP best placed to pick up.
| Paul
Frew (DUP) 6,581 (16.3%) @Daithí McKay (SF) 6,152 (15.3%) @Mervyn Storey (DUP) 6,083 (15.1%) Jim Allister (TUV) 4,061 (10.1%) @Declan O'Loan (SDLP) 3,682 (9.1%) David McIlveen (DUP) 3,275 (8.1%) Evelyne Robinson (DUP) 3,256 (8.1%) Robin Swann (UUP) 2,518 (6.2%) Bill Kennedy (UUP) 2,189 (5.4%) Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,848 (4.6%) Audrey Patterson (TUV) 668 (1.7%) @ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved. |
DUP 19,195 (47.6%, -3.3%) 3 seats SF 6,152 (15.3% +0.9%) 1 seat TUV 4,729 (11.7%) 1 seat (+1) UUP 4,707 (11.7%, -3.1%) 1 seat SDLP 3,682 (9.1%, -2.0%) (-1) Alliance 1,848 (4.6%, +1.8%) Electorate 74,760 Votes cast: 40,983 (54.8%); spoilt votes 670 (1.6%) Valid votes: 40,313; quota 5,760 |
Jim Allister (TUV) took Declan O'Loan of the
SDLP's seat by 613 votes, failing to reach the quota but encuring that his
party did at least win one vote in the Assembly. Given the boundary
changes, it was never likely that Nationalists could hold both seats here.
@Ian Paisley [jr] (DUP) 19,672 (46.4%,
-10.2%)
Jim Allister (TUV) 7,114 (16.8%)
@Daithi McKay (Sinn Féin) 5,265 (12.4%, -1.8%)
Irwin Armstrong (UCUNF) 4,634 (10.9%, -4.1%)
Declan O'Loan (SDLP) 3,738 (8.8%, -2.2%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,368 (3.2%, +0.1%)
Lyle Cubitt (Independent) 606 (1.4%)
Electorate: 73,338; Total Poll: 42,579 (58.1%); Invalid Votes: 182 (0.4%);
Valid Votes: 42,397
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency
This was the TUV's best result in Northern Ireland, but leader Jim Allister failed to make the necessary breakthrough. On these figures he would win a seat in an Assembly election, and the DUP would win three; Sinn F�in would win one and the last would probably go to the UUP, the SDLP losing out.
| *Ian Paisley [sr] MP (DUP) 7716
(17.4%) Daithi McKay (SF) 7065 (15.9%) *Ian Paisley [jr] (DUP) 6106 (13.8%) *Mervyn Storey (DUP) 5171 (11.7%) *Robert Coulter (UUP) 5047 (11.4%) Declan O'Loan (SDLP) 3281 (7.4%) Deirdre Nelson (DUP) 2740 (6.2%) Orla Black (SDLP) 2129 (4.8%) Lyle Cubitt (UKUP) 1848 (4.2%) Robert Swann (UUP) 1281 (2.9%) Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1254 (2.8%) Paul McGlinchey (Independent) 383 (0.9%) James Gregg (Independent) 310 (0.7%) *Elected in 2003 from North Antrim |
DUP 21,733 (49.0%, +3.1%) 3 seats SF 7,095 (15.9%, +1.9%) 1 seat UUP 6,328 (14.3%, -7.4%) 1 seat SDLP 5,410 (12.2%, -1.4%) 1 seat UKUP 1,848 (4.2%, +3.3%) Alliance 1,254 (2.8%, +0.9%) Inds 693 (1.6%) Electorate 72,814 Votes cast 44,655 (61.3%); spoilt votes 324 (0.7%) Valid votes 44,331; quota 6,334 |
*@ Ian Paisley (DUP) 25,156 (54.8% +4.9%)
@Philip McGuigan (Sinn Fein) 7,191 (15.7% +5.9%)
Rodney McCune (UUP) 6,637 (14.5% -6.5%)
@Sean Farren (SDLP) 5,585 (12.2% -4.6%)
Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 1,357 (3.0% +0.4%)
Turnout 46,226
* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly
These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give the DUP three seats and the UUP and SF one each, with the last seat between the SDLP and a fourth DUP candidate.
DUP 22,086 (48.6%)
UUP 8,388 (18.4%)
Sinn Fein 6,527 (14.4%)
SDLP 5,650 (12.4%)
Independents 2,329 (5.1%)
Alliance 404 (0.9%)
PUP 94 (0.2%)
It is easy enough to extrapolate from the local council elections because the North Antrim constituency includes three whole district councils. If the same votes had been cast in a six-seat STV election, the DUP would have won three seats, and the UUP, SF and the SDLP one each.
| *Ian Paisley Sr (DUP) 8732 (19.8%) *Ian Paisley Jr (DUP) 7898 (17.9%) *Robert Coulter (UUP) 6385 (14.5%) Philip McGuigan (SF) 6195 (14.0%) *Sean Farren (SDLP) 3648 (8.3%) Mervyn Storey (DUP) 3605 (8.2%) James Currie (UUP) 3153 (7.1%) Declan O'Loan (SDLP) 2361 (5.4%) Jayne Dunlop (Alliance) 867 (2.0%) *Gardiner Kane (Ind) 623 (1.4%) Nathaniel Small (UKUP) 402 (0.9%) Billy McCaughey (PUP) 230 (0.5%) |
DUP 20,235 (45.9%, +8.3%) 3 seats UUP 9,538 (21.6%, -0.7%) 1 seat SF 6,195 (14.0%, +5.9%) 1 seat SDLP 6,009 (13.6%, -3.3%) 1 seat Alliance 867 (2.0%, -2.6%) Ind 623 (1.4%) UKUP 402 (0.9%) PUP 230 (0.5%, -0.8%) Electorate 70,489 |
Reaction: The UUP lost a seat to Sinn Fein. On the final count James Currie was 930 votes behind Sean Farren, with an undistributed SF surplus of 197 which would have widened the distance.
North Antrim had lost 8.19% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 15.96% in the Knocklayd ward of Moyle to 4.13% in the Craigywarren ward of Ballymena. 15 constituencies lost more voters, only Fermanagh-South Tyrone and Mid Ulster lost fewer.Electorate: 74,451; votes cast: 49,545 (66.5%); spoilt votes: 328 (0.6%)
Valid votes: 49,217; DUP majority 14,224
* outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly
Not a surprising result. A six-seat Assembly election on these figures would give the DUP three seats, and the UUP and SDLP one each, with the last seat between the DUP and UUP.
DUP 19774 (41%) Best equivalent result in Northern Ireland
UUP 11905 (24%)
SDLP 8644 (18%)
SF 2513 (5%)
Alliance 317 (1%)
PUP 206 (0.4%)
NIUP 186 (0.4%)
Independents 5097 (10%)
Total valid votes 48642
It is easy enough to extrapolate from the local council elections because the North Antrim constituency includes three whole district councils. If the same votes had been cast in a six-seat STV election, the DUP would have won three seats, the UUP two and the SDLP one.
| *Ian Paisley (DUP) 10,590 *Sean Farren (SDLP) 6,433 *Robert Coulter (UUP) 5,407 *Ian Paisley Jr (DUP) 4,459 Gardiner Kane (DUP) 3,638 James Leslie (UUP) 3,458 William Wright (United Unionist) 3,297 Jayne Dunlop (All) 2,282 Patricia Campbell (UUP) 2,199 James McCarry (SF) 2,024 Joe Cahill (SF) 2,021 Malachy McCamphill (SDLP) 1,982 Richard Rodgers (PUP) 641 Oliver McMullan (Ind Nat) 478 Maurice McAllister (UDP) 400 Chris McCaughan (Ind) 194 John Wright (NLP) 156 Thomas Palmer (Ind) 38 |
DUP 18,687 (37.60%) 3 seats Best result for DUP in Northern Ireland UUP 11,064 (22.26%) 2 seats SDLP 8,415 (16.93%) 1 seat SF 4,045 (8.14%) United Unionist 3,297 (6.63%) Alliance 2,282 (4.59%) PUP 641 (1.29%) Ind Nat 478 (0.96%) UDP 400 (0.80%) Inds 232 (0.47%) NLP 156 (0.31%) Electorate: 73,247 |
* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from North Antrim
Not a very surprising result, though a good one for the DUP. Their third candidate finished on 5,818 votes to SF's 5,154, but with an undistributed UUP surplus of 480 to be taken into account the final margin was pretty comfortable.
Ulster Unionist Party 11,954 votes (32%)
Democratic Unionist Party 11,839 votes (32%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 7,565 votes (20%)
Sinn Féin 962 votes (3%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 447 votes (1%)
Ulster Party 184 votes (1%)
Progressive Unionist Party 180 votes (1%)
Women's Coalition 66 votes (0.19%)
Others 4,188 votes (11%)
Total valid votes 37,385 (51.42% of the electorate)
* outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 16,448 (37%); Ian Paisley sr, Ian
Paisley jr elected Best result for DUP in Northern Ireland
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 11,195 (25%); Robert Coulter, Joe Gaston
elected
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 7,185 (16%); Sean Farren elected
Sinn Féin (SF) 2,579 (6%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 2,518 (6%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKU) 1,185 (3%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 768 (2%)
Independent McMullan 670 (2%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 665 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 272 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 259 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 187 (0.42%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 167 (0.38%)
Green Party 150 (0.34%)
Democratic Partnership 114 (0.26%)
Workers Party (WP) 60 (0.13%)
Democratic Left (DL) 40 (0.09%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 14 (0.03%)
Independent Chambers 13 (0.03%)
Electorate: 71,799; votes cast: 44,560 (62.0%); spoilt votes: 71 (0.1%); valid votes: 44,489
Ian Paisley Sr had been elected to the old Northern Ireland House of Commons in 1970 representing the Bannside constituency; he was elected to the 1973 Assembly, the 1975 Convention, and the 1982 Assembly from North Antrim.
| DUP | UUP | Oth U | Alliance | Oth | SDLP | SF | |
| 2007a |
49% | 14% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 12% | 16% |
| 2005w | 55% | 14% | 3% | 12% | 16% | ||
| 2005lg | 49% | 18% | 0% | 1% | 5% | 12% | 14% |
| 2003a | 46% | 22% | 2% | 2% | 14% | 14% | |
| 2001w | 50% | 21% | 3% | 17% | 10% | ||
| 2001lg | 41% | 24% | 1% | 1% | 10% | 18% | 5% |
| 1998a | 38% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 17% | 8% |
| 1997lg | 32% | 32% | 1% | 1% | 11% | 20% | 3% |
| 1997w | 47% | 24% | 6% | 1% | 16% | 6% | |
| 1996f | 37% | 25% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 16% | 6% |
See also: Full 1998 results from North Antrim | The Boundary Commission's Provisional Recommendations | Boundary Commission 2003 | Jim Riley's analysis of votes and seats in the 1998 Assembly election | The constituencies
Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey
Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.
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This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission. |
Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 May 2022 by Conal Kelly.
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Disclaimer:� Nicholas Whyte 1998-2007
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