Upper Bann


Map and graph by Conal Kelly

This constituency contains the central chunk of Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon District Council. The MP is Carla Lockhart of the DUP, first elected in 2019. She replaced party colleague David Simpson who retired. Simpson had defeated David Trimble (then the UUP leader, now Lord Trimble of Lisnagarvey) in 2005. Trimble had won the 1990 by-election caused by the death of his party's deputy leader, Harold McCusker. The DUP hold two Assembly seats here, with SF, the UUP, and Alliance on one each. See the 1983-92 Upper Bann results.

In the new revisions, Upper Bann loses Loughbrickland to South Down and its eastern fringes to Lagan Valley, but gains parts of the apple country of North Armagh. It was the most bloated constituency on the old boundaries. The result looks big on the map but has little net electoral impact.

2024 Westminster result

Carla Lockhart (DUP) 21,642 (45.7%, +4.9%)
Catherine Nelson (SF) 14,236 (30.1%, +5.4%)
Eoin Tennyson (Alliance) 6,322 (13.4%, +0.7%)
Kate Evans (UUP) 3,662 (7.7%, -4.7%)
Malachy Quinn (SDLP) 1,496 (3.2%, -6.2%)

47,595 total votes (58.6%), 47,358 valid, 237 invalid (0.5%)

Consolidation for the top two candidates doing a tactical squeeze on those lower down.

In a five-seat STV election, the DUP and SF should both win two, and Alliance one.

2019 Westminster notional result on new boundaries:

DUP 18,931 (40.8%)
SF 11,454 (24.7%)
Alliance 5,880 (12.7%)
UUP 5,788 (12.5%)
SDLP 4,351 (9.4%)
Aontu 38 (0.1%)

See spreadsheets from the 2011 Assembly election, the 2010 Westminster election, the 2007 Assembly election, the 2005 Westminster election, the 2003 Assembly election, the 2001 Westminster election, the 1998 Assembly election, the 1997 Westminster election and the 1996 Forum/talks election. See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

		DUP	UUP	Alliance	SDLP	SF	Aontu
2019 actual		20,501	6,197	6,433	4,623	12,291
		41.0%	12.4%	12.9%	9.2%	24.6%
From Upper Bann	To Upper Bann	18,109	5,474	5,711	4,130	10,980
From Upper Bann	To Lagan Valley	-1,818	-550	-571	-410	-1090
From Upper Bann	To South Down	-574	-174	-152	-83	-221
From Newry and Armagh	To Upper Bann	822	314	169	221	474	38
2019 notional		18,931	5,788	5,880	4,351	11,454	38
		40.8%	12.5%	12.7%	9.4%	24.7%	0.1%
		-0.2%	0.1%	-0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%

Results of recent elections

	DUP	UUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2024w	45.7%	7.7%		13.4%		3.2%	30.1%
2022a	27.5%	15.3%	7.8%	11.5%	2.1%	6.5%	29.4%
2019w	41.0%	12.4%		12.9%		9.2%	24.6%
2019lg	29.4%	21.7%	2.8%	9.1%	0.7%	14.1%	22.1%
2017w	43.5%	15.4%		4.5%		8.6%	27.9%
2017a	32.8%	20.6%	2.2%	5.3%	1.5%	9.9%	27.8%
2016a	31.1%	21.6%	6.6%	3.1%	3.2%	9.5%	24.9%
2015w	32.7%	27.9%	0.4%	3.8%	1.7%	9.0%	24.6%
2014lg	27.1%	23.6%	8.2%	4.5%	2.9%	12.5%	21.3%
2011a	27.1%	24.6%	3.0%	6.5%		11.4%	27.2%
2011lg	29.4%	23.8%	2.8%	3.8%	3.0%	12.7%	24.4%
2010w	33.8%	25.7%		3.0%		12.7%	24.7%
2007a	31.4%	21.3%	3.9%	1.9%	3.6%	12.7%	25.3%
2005w	37.6%	25.5%		2.2%	0.8%	13.0%	21.0%
2005lg	31.3%	25.4%		3.4%	4.3%	17.3%	18.4%

NB: The Conservative candidate received 0.6% of the vote in 2007, and the Conservative Party supported the UUP in 2010.

2022 Assembly election (five seats)

@John O'Dowd (SF) 9,242 (16.5%)
@Jonathan Buckley (DUP) 8,869 (15.8%)
Liam Mackle (SF) 7,260 (12.9%)
@Diane Dodds (DUP) 6,548 (11.7%)
Eóin Tennyson (Alliance) 6,440 (11.5%)
@Doug Beattie (UUP) 5,199 (9.3%)
Darrin Foster (TUV) 4,373 (7.8%)
@Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 3,645 (6.5%)
Glenn Barr (UUP) 3,367 (6.0%)
Aidan Gribbin (Aontú) 571 (1.0%)
Lauren Kendall (Green) 459 (0.8%)
Glenn Beattie (Heritage) 128 (0.2%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

SF 16,502 (29.4%, +1.6%) 1 seat
DUP 15,417 (27.5%, -5.3%) 2 seats
UUP 8,566 (15.3%, -5.3%) 1 seat
Alliance 6,440 (11.5%, +6.2%) 1 seat
TUV 4,373 (7.8%, +5.8%)
SDLP 3,645 (6.5%, -3.4%) (-1)
Aontú 571 (1.0%)
Green 459 (0.8%, -0.3%)
Heritage 128 (0.2%)

Electorate: 91,149
Votes cast: 56,954 (62.5%, ±0%), spoilt votes 853 (1.5%)
Valid votes: 56,101, quota 9,351

Upper Bann was one of four Alliance gains at the expense of the SDLP. Nationalists won only one seat here out of five despite having 36% of first preferences (or 2.2 quotas). Alliance's Tennyson took the last seat by 376.07 votes ahead of Sinn Fein's Mackle (the fourth closest result of the election), with 221 undistributed UUP surplus votes which would have widened the gap.

2016 Brexit referendum

Total electorate: 81,469
Turnout: 51,845 (63.6%), 10/18.
Invalid votes: 33 (0.06%)
Votes to REMAIN: 24,550 (47.4%)
Votes to LEAVE: 27,262 (52.6%).
Fifth highest LEAVE vote share in Northern Ireland.

2019 Westminster election

@Carla Lockhart (DUP) 20,501 (41.0%, -2.6%)
@John O'Dowd (SF) 12,291 (24.6%, -3.4%)
Eóin Tennyson (Alliance) 6,433 (12.9%, +8.3%)
@Doug Beattie (UUP) 6,197 (12.4%, -3.0%)
@Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 4,623 (9.2%, +0.7%)

@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 82,887; Total Poll: 50,348 (60.7%); Invalid Votes: 303 (0.6%); Valid Votes: 50,045

Carla Lockhart successfully defended the seat previously held by David Campbell. This was the UUP's biggest drop in vote share across Northern Ireland. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP two seats and SF one. The winners of last two seats would likely be SF and the DUP.

2019 local government election

From the 2011 census, Upper Bann includes:

The entire Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Craigavon
The entire Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Lurgan
79% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Portadown
78% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Banbridge
39% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Lagan River.

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2019 results as:

DUP 12,761 (29.4%)
SF 8,569 (22.1%)
UUP 9,426 (21.7%)
SDLP 6,136 (14.1%)
Alliance 3,964 (9.1%)
TUV 1,028 (2.4%)
Aontú 230 (0.5%)
UKIP 171 (0.4%)
Independents 85 (0.2%)

If cast in a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would have given the DUP two seats, and SF, the UUP and the SDLP one each.

2017 Westminster election

*David Simpson (DUP) 22,317 (43.5%, +10.8%)
@John O'Dowd (SF) 14,325 (27.9%, +3.3%)
@Doug Beattie (UUP) 7,900 (15.4%, -12.5%)
Declan McAlinden (SDLP) 4,397 (8.6%, -0.4%)
Tara Doyle (Alliance) 2,319 (4.5%, +0.7%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 80,168; Votes Polled: 51,431 (64.2%); Invalid Votes: 173 (0.3%); Valid Votes: 51,258

Another strong result for the DUP. If cast in a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP and SF two MLAs each, and the UUP one.

2017 Assembly election (five seats)

@Carla Lockhart (DUP) 9,140 (17.7%)
@John O'Dowd (SF) 8,220 (15.9%)
Jonathan Buckley (DUP) 7,745 (15.0%)
Nuala Toman (SF) 6,108 (11.8%)
@Doug Beattie (UUP) 5,467 (10.6%)
@Jo-Anne Dobson (UUP) 5,132 (10.0%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,127 (9.9%)
Tara Doyle (Alliance) 2,720 (5.3%)
Roy Ferguson (TUV) 1,035 (2.0%)
Simon Lee (Green) 555 (1.1%)
Colin Craig (WP) 218 (0.4%)
Ian Nickels (Con) 81 (0.2%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

DUP 16,885 (32.8%, +1.7%) 2 seats
SF 14,328 (27.8%, +2.9%) 1 seat (-1)
UUP 10,599 (20.6%, -1.0%) 1 seat (-1)
SDLP 5,127 (9.9%, +0.4%) 1 seat (+1)
Alliance 2,720 (5.3%, +2.2%)
TUV 1,035 (2.0%, -0.6%)
Green 555 (1.1%, 0.0%)
WP 218 (0.4%)
Con 81 (0.2%, 0.0%)

Electorate: 83,431
Votes cast: 52,174 (62.5%, +8.1%), spoilt votes 626 (1.2%)
Valid votes: 51,548, quota 8,592

The SDLP came from seventh place to take the fifth seat, benefiting from Alliance and especially UUP transfers, leaving the two SF candidates fighting for the last seat, whichO'Dowd won by 2,252 over Toman.

2016 Brexit referendum

Total electorate: 81,469
Turnout: 51,845 (63.6%), 10/18.
Invalid votes: 33 (0.06%)
Votes to REMAIN: 24,550 (47.4%)
Votes to LEAVE: 27,262 (52.6%).
Fifth highest LEAVE vote share in Northern Ireland.

2016 Brexit referendum

Total electorate: 81,469
Turnout: 51,845 (63.6%), 10/18.
Invalid votes: 33 (0.06%)
Votes to REMAIN: 24,550 (47.4% );
Votes to LEAVE: 27,262 (52.6%).
Fifth highest LEAVE vote share in Northern Ireland.

2016 Assembly election (six seats)

Carla Lockhart (DUP) 7,993 (17.5%)
@Sydney Anderson (DUP) 6,195 (13.6%)
Catherine Seeley (Sinn Féin) 6,164 (13.5%)
@John O'Dowd (Sinn Féin) 5,209 (11.4%)
@Jo-Anne Dobson (UUP) 5,155 (11.3%)
@Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 4,335 (9.5%)
Doug Beattie (UUP) 2,969 (6.5%)
Kyle Savage (UUP) 1,760 (3.9%)
Harry Hamilton (Alliance) 1,424 (3.1%)
Roy Ferguson (TUV) 1,177 (2.6%)
David Jones (UKIP) 1,072 (2.3%)
Martin Kelly (CISTA) 672 (1.5%)
Sophie Long (PUP) 704 (1.5%)
Simon Lee (Green) 495 (1.1%)
Emma Hutchinson (NI Labour) 250 (0.5%)
Ian Nickels (Conservatives) 79 (0.2%)
Steven McCarroll (Independent) 33 (0.1%))

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

DUP 14,188 (31.1%, +4.0%) 2 seats
Sinn Féin 11,373 (24.9%, -2.3%) 2 seats (+1)
UUP 9,884 (21.6%, -3.0%) 2 seats
SDLP 4,335 (9.5%, -1.9%) (-1)
Alliance 1,424 (3.1%, -3.4%)
TUV 1,177 (2.6%, +0.2%)
UKIP 1,072 (2.3%, +1.7%)
PUP 704 (1.5%)
CISTA 672 (1.5%)
Green 495 (1.1%)
NI Labour 250 (0.5%)
Conservatives 79 (0.2%)
Independent 33 (0.1%))

Electorate: 85,204
Votes cast: 46,383 (54.4%); spoilt 697 (1.5%)
Valid votes: 45,686; quota 6,527

SF finally made the gain from the SDLP that had narrowly eluded them at previous elections, their only gain of the entire day. John O'Dowd (SF) took the last seat 167.56 votes ahead of the incumbent Dolores Kelly.

2015 Westminster election

*David Simpson (DUP) 15,430 (32.7%, -1.2%)
Jo-Anne Dobson (UUP) 13,166 (27.9%, +2.2%)
Catherine Seeley (SF) 11,593 (24.6%, -0.2%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 4,238 (9.0%, -3.8%)
Peter Lavery (Alliance) 1,780 (3.8%, +0.8%)
Martin Kelly (Cannabis Is Safer Than Alcohol) 460 (1.0%)
Damien Harte (WP) 351 (0.7%)
Amandeep Bhogal (Conservative) 201 (0.4%)
Electorate: 80,060; Votes Polled: 47,480 (59.3%); Invalid Votes: 254 (0.5%); Valid Votes: 47,219

A solid defence by Simpson, though the UUP are now breathing down his neck. SF's heralded breakthrough did not happen.

If cast in an Assembhly election, these votes would give two seats each to the DUP, UUP and SF.

2014 local government election

From the 2011 census, Upper Bann includes:

The entire Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Craigavon
The entire Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Lurgan
79% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Portadown
78% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Banbridge
39% of the Armagh, Banbridge and Craigavon DEA of Lagan River.

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2014 results as:

DUP 10966 (27%)
UUP 9585 (24%)
SF 8613 (21%)
SDLP 5071 (13%)
Alliance 1812 (4%)
TUV 1250 (3%)
PUP 1157 (3%)
UKIP 905 (2%)
NI21 611 (2%)
Inds 490 (1%)
Democracy First 68 (0.2%)

If cast in a six-seat Assembly election, these votes would have given the DUP and UUP two seats, and SF and the SDLP one each.

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

@John O'Dowd (SF) 6,649 (15.7%)
@Sydney Anderson (DUP) 5,854 (13.8%)
@Stephen Moutray (DUP) 5,645 (13.3%)
Johnny McGibbon (SF) 4,879 (11.5%)
@Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 4,846 (11.4%)
@Sam Gardiner (UUP) 3,676 (8.7%)
Colin McCusker (UUP) 3,402 (8.0%)
Joanne Dobson (UUP) 3,348 (7.9%)
Harry Hamilton (Alliance) 1,979 (4.7%)
David Vance (TUV) 1,026 (2.4%)
Sheila McQuaid (Alliance) 786 (1.9%)
Barbara Trotter (UKIP) 272 (0.6%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

SF 11,528 (27.2%, +1.9%) 1 seat
DUP 11,499 (27.1%, -4.3%) 2 seats
UUP 10,426 (24.6%, +3.4%) 2 seats
SDLP 4,846 (11.4%, -1.3%) 1 seat
Alliance 2,765 (6.5%, +4.7%)
TUV 1,026 (2.4%)
UKIP 272 (0.6%)

Electorate: 77,905
Votes cast: 43,113 (55.3%); spoilt 751 (1.7%)
Valid votes: 42,362; quota 6,052

SF were talking up their chances of a gain here, and on the first preferences, where they got more than any other party, I thought that they had indeed taken the SDLP seat. But in fact Kelly survived by 340 votes ahead of McGibbon, benefiting from Alliance transfers and SF's traditional failure to balance here. Note also Joanne Dobson managing to win a seat from 8th place, the UUP managing their votes unusually well.

2011 local government election

My projection of votes cast in Craigavon, Banbridge Town and three wards of Knockiveagh:

DUP 12,449 (29.4%)
SF 10,313 (24.4%)
UUP 10,087 (23.8%)
SDLP 5,393 (12.7%)
Alliance 1,620 (3.8%)
TUV 1,068 (2.5%)
UKIP 122 (0.3%)
Inds 1,252 (3.0%)

These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would probably give the DUP and UUP two seats, and SF and the SDLP one each, unless SF were good at balancing and the SDLP unlucky with transfers.

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

Candidates:
*@David Simpson (DUP) 14,000 (33.8%, -3.8%)
Harry Hamilton (UCUNF) 10,639 (25.7%, +0.2%)
@John O'Dowd (Sinn Féin) 10,237 (24.7%, +3.7%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,276 (12.7%, -0.2%)
Brendan Heading (Alliance) 1,231 (3.0%, +0.8%)
Electorate: 74,732; Total Poll: 41,681 (55.8%); Invalid Votes: 298 (0.7%); Valid Votes: 41,383

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

One of the seats where the Ulster Unionist-Conservative alliance needed to make significant progress, and failed to do so. Meanwhile the Natiobnalist vote creeps closer to three quotas, though on these figures, there would probably be no change in the districubtion of seats at an Assembly election (2 each for DUP and UUP, 1 each for SF and SDLP).

2007 Assembly Election (7 March, six seats)

Full details of each count are available here.

*John O'Dowd (SF) 7733 (18.0%)
*David Simpson MP (DUP) 6828 (15.9%)
*Samuel Gardiner (UUP) 5135 (12.0%)
*Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 4689 (10.9%)
*Stephen Moutray (DUP) 3663 (8.5%)
Desmond Ward (SF) 3118 (7.3%)
Junior McCrum (DUP) 2975 (6.9%)
George Savage (UUP) 2167 (5.1%)
George Hatch (UUP) 1815 (4.2%)
David Calvert (Independent Unionist) 1332 (3.1%)
Helen Corry (Green) 1156 (2.7%)
Sheila McQuaid (Alliance) 798 (1.9%)
Patrick McAleenan (SDLP) 761 (1.8%)
Barry Toman (RSF) 386 (0.9%)
David Fry (Conservative) 248 (0.6%)
Suzanne Peeples (Independent Unionist) 78 (0.2%)

*Elected in 2003 from Upper Bann

DUP 13,466 (31.4%, +2.9%) 2 seats
SF 10,851 (25.3%, +3.5%) 1 seat
UUP 9,117 (21.3%) 2 seats
SDLP 5,450 (12.7%) 1 seat
Ind U's 1,410 (3.3%)
Green 1,156 (2.7%)
Alliance 798 (1.9%, +0.5%)
RSF 386 (0.9%)
Conservative 248 (0.6%)

Electorate 70,716
Votes cast 43,235 (61.1%); spoilt votes 353 (0.8%)
Valid votes 42,882; quota 6,127

An unusual example of both the DUP and Sinn Fein missing out on strong chances of extra seats due to poor balancing, with the UUP picking up two seats to SF's one despite having 1700 fewer first preferences, Savage beating Ward by 1266 votes on the final count with an undistributed SDLP surplus of 64 votes which would have made a very small dent in that margin.

2005 Westminster election (5 May, one seat)

@David Simpson (DUP) 16,679 (37.6% +8.1%)
*@David Trimble (UUP) 11,281 (25.5% -8.0%)
@John O'Dowd (Sinn Fein) 9,305 (21.0% -0.1%)
@Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 5,747 (13.0% -1.9%)
Alan Castle (Alliance) 955 (2.2%)
Tom French (WP) 355 (0.8% -0.2%)

* outgoing MP.
@ Member of the Assembly

Trimble's loss was the most dramatic result of the election. These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would probably give the DUP and UUP two seats each, with one each for SF and the SDLP.

2005 Local Government Election

The constituency comprises all 26 wards in Craigavon and 9 of the 17 wards in Banbridge (all 6 wards in the Banbridge Town DEA, and 3 of the 6 wards in the Knockiveagh DEA [Gilford, Lawrencetown and Loughbrickland]).

DUP 13,774.5 (31.3%)
UUP 11,191.5 (25.4%)
Sinn Fein 8,111 (18.4%)
SDLP 7,610.5 (17.3%)
Independent 1,708 (3.9%)
Alliance 1,520 (3.4%)
WP 155 (0.4%)

These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would probably give the DUP and UUP two seats each, with one each for SF and the SDLP.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*David Trimble MP (UUP) 9158 (21.1%)
David Simpson (DUP) 5933 (13.6%)
John O'Dowd (SF) 5524 (12.7%)
Stephen Moutray (DUP) 4697 (10.8%)
*Dara O'Hagan (SF) 3970 (9.1%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 3661 (8.4%)
Kieran Corr (SDLP) 3157 (7.3%)
Samuel Gardiner (UUP) 2359 (5.4%)
*Denis Watson (DUP) 1770 (4.1%)
*George Savage (UUP) 1269 (2.9%)
David Jones (Ind) 585 (1.3%)
Sidney Anderson (Ind) 581 (1.3%)
Frank McQuaid (Alliance) 571 (1.3%)
Tom French (WP) 247 (0.6%)

UUP 12,786 (29.4%, +0.5%) 2 seats
DUP 12,400 (28.5%, +13.0%) 2 seats
SF 9,494 (21.8%, +7.5%) 1 seat
SDLP 6,818 (15.7%, -8.0%) 1 seat
Inds 1,166 (2.7%)
Alliance 571 (1.3%, -1.8%)
WP 247 (0.6%, +0.1)

Electorate 68,814
Votes cast 44,145 (64.2%); spoilt votes 663 (1.5%)
Valid votes 43,482; quota 6,212

Reaction: The DUP gained Watson's seat, though he himself failed to be elected as a DUP candidate; better balancing would have made no difference. Likewise SF and UUP members of the last Assembly were pushed out by running-mates. The final margin was over 1600, between SF's O'Dowd and O'Hagan.

Upper Bann had lost 9.10% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 14.74% in the Drumgor ward of Craigavon to 5.56% in The Birches, also in Craigavon. 4 constituencies lost fewer voters, 13 lost more.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

*@David Trimble (UUP) 17,095 (33.5%)
David Simpson (DUP) 15,037 (29.5%)
@Dara O'Hagan (Sinn Fein) 10,771 (21.1%)
Dolores Kelly (SDLP) 7,607 (14.9%)
Tom French (WP) 527 (1.0%)

Electorate: 72,574; votes cast: 51,376 (70.7%); spoilt votes: 339 (0.6%)
Valid votes: 51,037; UUP majority 2,058

* outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly

The DUP were cock-a-hoop at the challenge they managed to mount against Trimble in his own constituency, but even more interesting was the reversal of votes between the SDLP and Sinn Fein. A six-seat Assembly election on these figures would give the Unionist parties two seats each, and the Nationalists one each.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

The constituency comprises all 26 wards in Craigavon and 9 of 17 wards in Banbridge (all 6 wards in the Banbridge Town DEA and 3 of the 6 wards in the Knockiveagh DEA). Votes cast in 2001 were:

UUP 15201.5 (30%)
DUP 11352.5 (23%)
SDLP 10026.5 (20%)
SF 8833.5 (18%)
Alliance 1065 (2%)
UKUP 990.5 (2%)
WP 132 (0.3%)
Independents 2790 (6%)
Total valid 50391.5

Extrapolating from the local government elections is difficult because the Upper Bann constituency breaches a local electoral area boundary. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole Upper Bann constituency. This would give the UUP two safe seats, and the DUP, SDLP and SF one each. The last seat would be most likely to go to the DUP, but an independent Unionist could not be excluded.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*David Trimble MP (UUP) 12,338
*Brid Rodgers (SDLP) 9,260
Denis Watson (UUU) 4,855
Dara O'Hagan (SF) 4,301
*Mervyn Carrick (DUP) 4,177
Ruth Allen (DUP) 3,635
Francie Murray (SF) 2,915
Mel Byrne (SDLP) 2,687
Frank McQuaid (All) 1,556
David Vance (UKU) 1,405
*Sam Gardiner (UUP) 1,097
George Savage (UUP) 669
Mark Neale (UUP) 455
Alan Evans (Lab) 439
Tom French (WP) 270
Kenny McClinton (Uster Independence) 207
Brian Silcock (Ind) 101
Jack Lyons (NLP) 32

UUP 14,559 (28.9%) 2 seats
SDLP 11,947 (23.7%) 1 seat
DUP 7,812 (15.5%) 1 seat
SF 7,216 (14.3%) 1 seat
UUU 4,855 (9.6%) 1 seat
Alliance 1,556 (3.1%)
UKU 1,405 (2.8%)
Lab 439 (0.9%)
WP 270 (0.5%)
UI 207 (0.4%)
Ind 101 (0.2%)
NLP 32 (0.1%)

Electorate: 70,852
Votes cast: 51,223 (72.3%); spoilt votes: 824 (1.6%)
Valid votes: 50,399; quota: 7,200

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from Upper Bann

Denis Watson succeeded in breaking through here as a dissident Unionist candidate. There were not quite enough votes for three Nationalist seats; if there had been, the loser would have been David Trimble's running-mate George Savage, leaving the party leader holding his party's only seat in his own constituency. As it was, Savage finished with 6,527 votes, well ahead of Mel Byrne's 5,878, especially with Denis Watson's surplus of 590 undistributed.

1997 Local Government Election

Ulster Unionist Party 16,195.5 (42%) Best equivalent result for UUP in Northern Ireland
Social Democratic and Labour Party 7123.5 (18%)
Democratic Unionist Party 5571.5 (14%)
Sinn Féin 3317 (10%)
Independent Nationalist Community Candidates 1905 (5%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 1887.5 (5%)
Community Labour 464 (1%)
Upper Bann Labour 353 (1%)
Workers Party 281 (1%)
Women's Coalition 84 (0.22%)
Others 1155 (3%)
Total valid 38738 (54.85% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

*ƒ David Trimble (Ulster Unionist Party) 20,836 (44%)
ƒ � Brid Rodgers (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 11,584 (24%)
Bernadette O'Hagan (Sinn Féin) 5,773 (12%)
ƒ Mervyn Carrick (Democratic Unionist Party) 5,482 (11%)
William Ramsay (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 3,017 (6%)
Tom French (Workers' Party) 554 (1%)
Brian Price (Conservative Party) 433 (1%)
Jack Lyons (Natural Law Party) 108 (0.23%)
Turnout 47,787 (67.88%)

* outgoing MP
ƒ member of the Forum

1996 Forum Election (five seats)

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 16,592 (36%) 2 seats (David Trimble MP, Samuel Gardiner elected)
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 9,846 (22%) 1 seat (Brid Rodgers elected)
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 7,134 (16%) 1 seat (Mervyn Carrick elected)
Sinn Féin (SF) 5,620 (12%) 1 seat (Michelle O'Connor elected)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 2,152 (5%)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 1,404 (3%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 886 (2%)
Labour (Lab) 512 (1%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 402 (1%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 390 (1%)
Workers Party (WP) 311 (1%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 180 (0.39%)
Green Party 178 (0.39%)
Democratic Partnership 71 (0.16%)
Democratic Left (DL) 36 (0.08%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 14 (0.03%)
Independent Chambers 4 (0.01%)

Electorate: 69,928; votes cast: 45,781 (65.4%); spoilt votes: 49 (0.1%); valid votes: 45,732

Trimble had been elected to the 1975 Constitutional Convention, from South Belfast.

Results 1996-2007

	DUP	UUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2007a	31%	21%	4%	2%	4 %	13%	25%
2005w	38%	26%		2%	1%	13%	21%
2005lg	31%	26%		3%	4%	17%	18%
2003a	29%	29%			1%	15%	21%
2001w	29%	33%	3%	1%	1%	16%	22%
2001lg	23%	30%	2%	2%	6%	20%	18%
1998a	14%	29%	13%	3%	2%	24%	15%
1997lg	14%	42%		5%	11%	18%	10%
1997w	11%	44%	1%	6%	1%	24%	12%
1996f	16%	36%	6%	5%	4%	22%	12%

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 May 2022 by Conal Kelly.

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