East Belfast


Map and graph by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in the eastern quarter of Belfast City Council and the northern end of Lisburn and Castlereagh District Council. The member of parliament has been Gavin Robinson (DUP) since 2015; he defeated Naomi Long (Alliance), who had herself defeated Peter Robinson (DUP, not related to Gavin) in 2010; he had defeated Bill Craig, the former Vanguard leader who had then joined the UUP, in 1979. The Alliance hold two Assembly seats, the DUP two and the UUP one. See also 1983-1992 East Belfast results, 1973-82 East Belfast results and 1950-70 East Belfast results.

The boundary changes were very straightforward, with a loss to North Down in one direction and gains from South Belfast in the other. This does bring in notional South Belfast SDLP votes (the SDLP did not stand in East Belfast in 2019).

2024 Westminster election

Gavin Robinson (DUP) 19,894 (46.6%, -1.3%)
Naomi Long (Alliance) 17,218 (40.3%, -1.8%)
John Ross (TUV) 1,918 (4.5%)
Ryan Warren (UUP) 1,818 (4.3%, -1.5%)
Brian Smyth (Green) 1,077 (2.5%)
Séamas de Faoite (SDLP) 619 (1.5%, -2.8%)
Ryan North (Ind) 162 (0.4%)

Electorate: 72,917; total vote 42,890 (58.8%); valid vote 42,706; invalid 184 (0.4%)

After much speculation, in the end the result was similar to 2019 with both leading candidates slipping a bit.

In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP three seats and Alliance two.

2019 Westminster notional result on new boundaries:

DUP 21,616 (47.9%)
Alliance 18,990 (42.1%)
UUP 2,581 (5.7%)
SDLP 1,939 (4.3%)

See spreadsheets from the 2011 Assembly election, the 2010 Westminster election, the 2007 Assembly election, the 2005 Westminster election, the 2003 Assembly election, the 2001 Westminster election, the 1998 Assembly election, the 1997 Westminster election and the 1996 Forum/talks election. See also the detailed guide for 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

		DUP	UUP	Alliance	SDLP
2019 actual		20,874	2,516	19,055
		49.2%	5.9%	44.9%	0.0%
From East Belfast	To East Belfast	19,726	2,378	18,232
From East Belfast	To North Down	-1148	-138	-823
From South Belfast	To East Belfast	1,890	204	758	1939
2019 notional		21,616	2,581	18,990	1939
		47.9%	5.7%	42.1%	4.3%
		-1.3%	-0.2%	-2.8%	4.3%

Recent election results

	DUP	UUP	PUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2024w	46.6%	4.3%		4.5%	40.3%	2.9%	1.5%
2022a	32.1%	15.2%	2.2%	7.1%	32.4%	6.6%	1.1%	3.2%
2019w	49.2%	5.9%			44.9%
2019lg	33.4%	13.4%	4.8%	3.3%	33.0%	8.6%	0.4%	3.3%
2017w	55.8%	3.3%		1.0%	36.0%	1.4%	0.4%	2.1%
2017a	37.6%	13.1%	6.6%	3.0%	31.4%	4.9%	0.6%	2.9%
2016a	36.7%	11.1%	4.8%	4.1%	28.7%	11.7%	0.4%	2.5%
2015w	49.3%			2.8%	42.8%	2.7%	0.3%	2.1%
2014lg	32.7%	16.4%	7.8%	8.5%	20.9%	9.3%	0.9%	3.4%
2011a	44.0%	9.7%	4.6%	8.5%	26.3%	2.7%	0.8%	3.2%
2011lg	40.5%	12.6%	5.9%	2.9%	29.7%	4.4%	1.8%	2.1%
2010w	32.8%	21.2%		5.2%	37.2%		1.1%	2.4%
2007a	41.5%	22.0%	9.8%		17.4%	4.6%	2.2%	2.6%
2005w	52.4%	29.5%			11.1%	2.5%	2.1%	2.4%
2005lg	45.9%	24.6%	4.9%	1.5%	16.0%	1.7%	3.0%	2.4%

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections. Figures for the previous boundaries can be found at the bottom of this page.
NB also that the Conservatives supported the UUP candidate(s) in 2010 and 2011.

2022 Assembly election (five seats)

@Naomi Long (Alliance) 8,195 (18.9%)
@Joanne Bunting (DUP) 7,253 (16.8%)
David Brooks (DUP) 6,633 (15.3%)
Peter McReynolds (Alliance) 5,820 (13.5%)
@Andy Allen (UUP) 5,281 (12.2%)
John Ross (TUV) 3,087 (7.1%)
Brian Smyth (Green) 2,302 (5.3%)
Mairéad O'Donnell (SF) 1,369 (3.2%)
Lauren Kerr (UUP) 1,282 (3.0%)
Karl Bennett (PUP) 970 (2.2%)
Hannah Kenny (PBP) 500 (1.2%)
Charlotte Carson (SDLP) 484 (1.1%)
Eoin MacNeill (WP) 72 (0.2%)

Alliance 14,015 (32.4%, +1.0%) 2 seats
DUP 13,886 (32.1%, -5.5%) 2 seats
UUP 6,563 (15.2%, +2.1%) 1 seat
TUV 3,087 (7.1%, +4.8%)
Green 2,302 (5.3%, +1.7%)
SF 1,369 (3.2%, -0.3%)
PUP 970 (2.2%, -4.4%)
PBP 500 (1.2%)
SDLP 484 (1.1%, +0.5%)
WP 72 (0.2%)

Electorate: 70,123
Votes cast: 43,840 (62.5%), spoilt votes 592 (1.4%)
Valid votes: 43,248, quota 7,209

No change in East Belfast. A Green challenge for the UUP seat fell significantly short, with the UUP's Andy Allen some 3988.96 votes ahead of the Green's Brian Smyth on the final count, and well over 2,000 Unionist surplus votes undistributed. This was Alliance's best result of the election, securing 32.4% of the first preferences, an increase of 1% over 2017.

2019 Westminster election

*Gavin Robinson (DUP) 20,874 (49.2%, +6.6%)
^Naomi Long (Alliance) 19,055 (44.9%, +8.9%)
Carl McClean (UUP) 2,516 (5.9%, +2.6%)

* outgoing MP.
^ member of the European Parliament.

Electorate: 66,245; Total Poll: 42,619 (64.3%); Invalid Votes: 174 (0.4%); Valid Votes: 42,445

In one of the closest results of the election, Gavin Robinson will have been relieved to have kept his seat. Alliance benefited somewhat from other parties not standing, but also from some direct vote switches from the DUP. This is Alliance's second highest ever vote share in a Westminster election (the highest being Stephen Farry's total in North Down). In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP three seats and Alliance two.

2019 local government election

From the 2011 census, East Belfast includes:
99% of the Belfast DEA of Ormiston
83% of the Belfast DEA of Titanic
45% of the Belfast DEA of Lisnasharragh
and
85% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Castlereagh East.

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2019 results as:

DUP 10,654 (33.4%)
Alliance 10,510 (33.0%)
UUP 4,261 (13.4%)
Green 2,371 (7.4%)
PUP 1,468 (4.6%)
SF 1,039 (3.3%)
TUV 538 (1.7%)
UKIP 511 (1.6%)
Inds 260 (0.8%)
SDLP 134 (0.4%)
CCLA 72 (0.2%)
PBP 60 (0.2%)

If cast in a five-seat STV election, those votes would give the DUP and Alliance two seats each, and the UUP one.

2017 Westminster election

*Gavin Robinson (DUP) 23,917 (55.8%, +5.5%)
@Naomi Long (Alliance) 15,443 (36.0%, -6.8%)
Hazel Legge (UUP) 1,408 (3.3%)
Mairéad O'Donnell (SF) 894 (2.1%, ±0)
Georgina Milne (Green) 561 (1.3%, -1.4%)
Sheila Bodel (Cons) 446 (1.0%, -1.8%)
Séamas de Faoite (SDLP) 167 (0.4%, +0.1%)
Bobby Beck (Ind) 54 (0.1%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly

Electorate: 63,495; Total Poll: 42,890 (67.7%); Invalid Votes: 93 (0.2%); Valid Votes: 42,994

Gavin Robinson kept his seat pretty comfortably. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the DUP three seats and Alliance two.

2017 Assembly election (five seats)

@Naomi Long (Alliance) 7,610 (18.9%)
@Joanne Bunting (DUP) 6,007 (14.9%)
@Andy Allen (UUP) 5,275 (13.1%)
@Chris Lyttle (Alliance) 5,059 (12.5%)
@Robin Newton (DUP) 4,729 (11.7%)
David Douglas (DUP) 4,431 (11.0%)
John Kyle (PUP) 2,658 (6.6%)
Georgina Milne (Green) 1,447 (3.6%)
Mairéad O'Donnell (SF) 1,173 (2.9%)
Andrew Girvin (TUV) 917 (2.3%)
Courtney Robinson (Cross Community Labour Alternative) 442 (1.1%)
Sheila Bodel (Conservative) 275 (0.7%)
Séamas de Faoite (SDLP) 250 (0.6%)
Jordy McKeag (Independent) 84 (0.2%)

DUP 15,167 (37.6%, +0.9%) 2 seats (-1)
Alliance 12,669 (31.4%, +2.7%) 2 seats
UUP 5,275 (13.1%, +2.0%) 1 seat
PUP 2,658 (6.6%, +1.8%)
Green 1,447 (3.6%, -2.3%)
SF 1,173 (2.9%, +0.4%)
TUV 917 (2.3%, -0.1%)
CCLA 442 (1.1%, -0.3%)
Cons 275 (0.7%, -0.6%)
SDLP 250 (0.6%, +0.2%)
Ind 84 (0.2%)

Electorate 64,788
Votes cast 40,828 (63.0%); spoilt 471 (1.2%)
Valid votes 40,357; quota 6,727

The five incumbent MLAs standing for re-election were all returned, David Douglas of the DUP battling it out with running-mate Robin Newton for the last seat and eventually losing by 130.81 votes. The closest runner from any other party was John Kyle of the PUP, who was 1450.94 votes behind Douglas and 1741.93 behind Newton when eliminated several rounds earlier.

2016 Brexit referendum

Total electorate: 64,474
Turnout: 42,665 (66.2%), 5/18
Invalid votes: 19 (0.04%)
Votes to REMAIN: 20,728 (48.6%)
Votes to LEAVE: 21,918 (51.4%)
Sixth highest LEAVE vote share in Northern Ireland

2016 Assembly election (six seats)

Joanne Bunting (DUP) 5,538
Naomi Long (Alliance) 5,482
@Sammy Douglas (DUP) 4,230
@Robin Newton (DUP) 3,875
@Andy Allen (UUP) 3,047
@Chris Lyttle (Alliance) 2,805
Tim Morrow (Alliance) 2,372
Ross Brown (Green) 2,183
John Kyle (PUP) 1,772
Maggie Hutton (Ind) 1,099
Chris McGimpsey (UUP) 1,095
Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Féin) 946
Andrew Girvin (TUV) 887
Jonny Lavery (UKIP) 631
Courtney Robinson (CCLA) 517
Neil Wilson (Cons) 477
Amy Doherty (SDLP) 141
Erskine Holmes (NILRC) 78

DUP 13,643 (36.7%, -7.3%) 3 seats
Alliance 10,659 (28.7%, +2.4%) 2 seats
UUP 4,142 (11.1%, +1.4%) 1 seat
Green 2,183 (5.9%, +4.1%)
PUP 1,772 (4.8%, +0.2%)
Ind 1,099 (3.0%)
SF 946 (2.5%, -0.7%)
TUV 887 (2.4%, +0.2%)
UKIP 631 (1.7%)
CCLA 517 (1.4%)
Cons 477 (1.3%)
SDLP 141 (0.4%, -0.4%)
NILRC 78 (0.2%)

Electorate 65,740
Votes cast 37,623 (57.2%, +3.6%), spoilt votes 448 (1.2%)
Valid votes 37,175; quota 5,311

No change here with Ross Brown (Green) 1324.85 votes behind Robin Newton (DUP) on the last count.

2015 Westminster election

Gavin Robinson (DUP) 19,575 (49.3%, +16.5%)
*Naomi Long (Alliance) 16,978 (42.8%, +5.6%)
Neil Wilson (Conservative) 1,121 (2.8%, +2.8%)
Ross Brown (Green) 1,058 (2.7%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (SF) 823 (2.1%, -0.3%)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 127 (0.3%, -0.7%)
Electorate: 63,157; Total Poll: 39,860 (63.1%); Invalid Votes: 178 (0.4%); Valid Votes: 39,682

Given that the DUP were supported also by the UUP and TUV, this was always going to be a difficult defence for Long, who none the less got the best percentage share that Alliance has ever got in a parliamentary election. The squeeze of smaller candidates is noteworthy.

If cast in a six-seat Assembly election, these votes would give both the DUP and Alliance three seats.

2014 local government election

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2014 results as:

DUP 10,334 (33%)
Alliance 6607 (21%)
UUP 5184 (16%)
PUP 2468 (8%)
TUV 1694 (5%)
Green 1592 (5%)
SF 1084 (3%)
NI21 1060 (3%)
UKIP 816 (3%)
SDLP 294 (1%)
Cons 160 (1%)
Inds 116 (0.4%)
Soc 89 (0.3%)
WP 58 (0.2%)

If cast in a six-seat STV election, those votes would give the DUP and Alliance two seats for sure, and the UUP one; the last seat would be between the third DUP candidate and a minor Unionist party (most likely the PUP).

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

@Peter Robinson (DUP) 9,149 (28.3%)
Judith Cochrane (Alliance) 4,329 (13.4%)
@Chris Lyttle (Alliance) 4,183 (12.9%)
Sammy Douglas (DUP) 2,668 (8.2%)
@Robin Newton (DUP) 2,436 (7.5%)
Michael Copeland (UUP) 2,194 (6.8%)
@Dawn Purvis (Independent) 1,702 (5.3%)
Brian Ervine (PUP) 1,493 (4.6%)
Niall O Donnghaile (SF) 1,030 (3.2%)
Philip Robinson (UUP) 943 (2.9%)
Harry Toan (TUV) 712 (2.2%)
Martin Gregg (Green) 572 (1.8%)
Ann Cooper (BNP) 337 (1.0%)
Magdalena Wolska (SDLP) 250 (0.8%)
Tommy Black (Socialist Party) 201 (0.6%)
Kevin McNally (WP) 102 (0.3%)
Stephen Stewart (Independent) 46 (0.1%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

DUP 14253 (44.0%, +6.4%) 3 seats
Alliance 8512 (26.3%, +7.5%) 2 seats (+1)
UUP 3137 (9.7%, -12.3%) 1 seat
Purvis 1702 (5.3%)
PUP 1493 (4.6%, -5.7%) (-1 seat)
SF 1030 (3.2%, -0.4%)
TUV 712 (2.2%)
Green 572 (1.8%, -0.4%)
BNP 337 (1.0%)
SDLP 250 (0.8%, -2.0%)
Socialist 201 (0.6%, -0.2%)
WP 102 (0.3%, -0.1%)

Electorate 61,263
Votes cast 32,828 (53.6%), spoilt votes 481 (1.5%)
Valid votes 32,347; quota 4,622

This was an impressive comeback from the DUP and also impressive consolidation for Alliance, who won two seats in one constituency for the first time since 1982, having of course taken the Westminster seat here from Peter Robinson in 2010. Alliance gained from the PUP's former leader Dawn Purvis, who lost out in her bid to get returned as an independent by 934 votes to the UUP's Michael Copeland. With 11 parties and two independents, this was the most politically diverse choice of candidates for any constituency in the 2011 election.

2011 local government election

My projection of the votes cast in Victoria, four Pottinger wards, Castlereagh East and most of Castlereagh Central is as follows:

DUP 13,021 (40.5%)
Alliance 9,528 (29.7%)
UUP 4,052 (12.6%)
PUP 1,892 (5.9%)
Green 1,037 (3.2%)
SF 686 (2.1%)
SDLP 590 (1.8%)
TUV 508 (1.6%)
Cons 223 (0.7%)
BNP 205 (0.6%)
Socialist 99 (0.2%)
WP 69 (0.2%)
PBPA 46 (0.1%)
Procapitalist 6 (0.02%)
Inds 164 (0.5%)

These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would give the DUP three seats, Alliance two and the UUP one.

2010 Westminster election (1 seat)

@Naomi Long (Alliance) 12,839 (37.2%, +26.1%)
*@Peter Robinson (DUP) 11,306 (32.8%, -19.6%)
Trevor Ringland (UCUNF) 7,305 (21.2%, -9.7%)
David Vance (TUV) 1,856 (5.4%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (Sinn Féin) 817 (2.4%, ±0)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 365 (1.1%, -1.0%)
Electorate: 59,007; Total Poll: 34,612 (58.7%); Invalid Votes: 124 (0.4%); Valid Votes: 34,488

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

The surprise result of the election, and the only seat to change both party and MP. In a generally duff year for the DUP, Robinson did particularly badly; Long doubled her vote from the 2007 Assembly election, and more than tripled it from Alliance's 2005 total. These votes, if cast in an Assembly election, would give Alliance and the DUP two seats, and the UUP one, with the last seat between a third Alliance candidate and a second UUP candidate.

2007 Assembly election (7 March, six seats)

Full details of each count are available here.

*Peter Robinson MP (DUP) 5635 (19.0%)
*Naomi Long (Alliance) 5583 (18.8%)
*[Sir] Reg Empey (UUP) 4139 (14.0%)
Wallace [Lord] Browne (DUP) 3185 (10.7%)
+Dawn Purvis (PUP) 3045 (10.3%)
*Robin Newton (DUP) 2335 (7.9%)
*Michael Copeland (UUP) 1557 (5.3%)
Niall Ó Donnghaile (SF) 1055 (3.6%)
Jim Rodgers (UUP) 820 (2.8%)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 816 (2.8%)
Stephen Agnew (Green) 653 (2.2%)
Glyn Chambers (Conservative) 427 (1.4%)
Thomas Black (Socialist Party) 225 (0.8%)
Joe Bell (Workers Party) 107 (0.4%)
Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 47 (0.2%)

*Elected in 2003 from East Belfast
+Appointed to 2003-07 Assembly to fill a vacancy

DUP 11,155 (37.6%, -1.5%) 3 seats (+1)
UUP 6,516 (22.0%, -11.1%) 1 seat (-1)
Alliance 5,583 (18.8%, +9.9%) 1 seat
PUP 3,045 (10.3%, +0.6%) 1 seat
SF 1,055 (3.6%, -0.3%)
SDLP 816 (2.8%, -0.4%)
Green 653 (2.2%)
Conservative 427 (1.4%, +0.7%)
Socialist 225 (0.8%, +0.2%)
WP 107 (0.4%, -0.04%)
Rainbow George 47 (0.2%, -0.1%)

Electorate 49,757
Votes cast 29,873 (60.0%); spoilt votes 242 (0.8%)
Valid votes 29,629; quota 4,233

The UUP's disastrous failure to balance their candidates here cost them a seat, with the DUP picking it up despite a decline in their own votes. The PUP's successful defence of the seat held by their late leader, David Ervine, took many by surprise (including me). Outgoing MLA Michael Copeland (UUP) was 517 votes behind the DUP's Robin Newton on the final count.

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

*@Peter Robinson (DUP) 15,152 (49.1% +6.6%)
@Sir Reg Empey (UUP) 9,275 (30.1% +6.9%)
@Naomi Long (Alliance) 3,746 (12.2% -3.6%)
Deborah Devenny (Sinn Fein) 1,029 (3.3% -0.1%)
Mary Muldoon (SDLP) 844 (2.7% +0.3%)
Alan Greer (Conservative) 434 (1.4% -0.8%)
Joe Bell (WP) 179 (0.6% +0.3%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 172 (0.6% +0.4%)

* outgoing MP
@Member of the Assembly

No big surprise. These votes, if cast in a six-seat STV election, would probably have given the DUP three seats, the UUP two and Alliance one.

2005 Local Government Election (5 May)

East Belfast is made up of 11 of the 51 wards in Belfast (all 7 wards in the Victoria DEA, and 4 of the 6 wards in the Pottinger DEA [Ballymacarrett, Bloomfield, Orangefield, and The Mount]), and 9 of the 23 wards in Castlereagh (all 6 wards in the Castlereagh Central DEA, 2 of the 7 wards in the Castlereagh East DEA: [Gilnahirk and Tullycarnet], and 1 of the 5 wards in the Castlereagh West DEA: [Hillfoot]).

DUP 13080.7 (43.0%)
UUP 7674.9 (25.2%)
Alliance 5319.8 (17.5%) - Best equivalent result for Alliance in Northern Ireland
PUP 1481.4 (4.9%) - Best equivalent result for the PUP in Northern Ireland
SDLP 1396.7 (4.6%)
Sinn Fein 629.3 (2.1%)
Independents 419.6 (1.4%)
Conservative 243 (0.8%)
Socialist Party 108.7 (0.4%)
WP 70 (0.2%)

Extrapolating from the local government elections is very difficult because the East Belfast constituency breaches three local electoral area boundaries. If we make some reasonable adjustments, we get these figures for the whole constituency. The DUP would have won three seats on these votes, the UUP two, and Alliance one.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Peter Robinson (DUP) 9254 (29.9%)
*Sir Reg Empey (UUP) 6459 (20.9%)
*David Ervine (PUP) 2990 (9.7%)
Naomi Long (Alliance) 2774 (9.0%)
Michael Copeland (UUP) 2291 (7.4%)
Jim Rodgers (UUP) 1502 (4.9%)
Robin Newton (DUP) 1475 (4.8%)
Harry Toan (DUP) 1403 (4.5%)
Joseph O'Donnell (SF) 1180 (3.8%)
Leo Van Es (SDLP) 967 (3.1%)
Terry Dick (Cons) 232 (0.7%)
Thomas Black (Soc) 176 (0.6%)
Joseph Bell (WP) 125 (0.4%)
John McBlain (Ind) 72 (0.2%)
Rainbow George Weiss (VFYS) 65 (0.2%)

DUP 12,132 (39.2%, +7.8%) 2 seats
UUP 10,252 (33.1%, +8.8%) 2 seats
PUP 2,990 (9.7%, -3.9%) 1 seat Best result for PUP in Northern Ireland
Alliance 2,774 (9.0%, -9.0%) 1 seat
SF 1,180 (3.8%, +1.5%)
SDLP 967 (3.1%, +0.5%)
Con 232 (0.7%, +0.2%)
Soc 176 (0.6%) Best result for Socialists in Northern Ireland
WP 125 (0.4%, +0.2%)
Ind 72 (0.2%)
VFYS 65 (0.2%) Best result for Vote For Yourself Party in Northern Ireland

Electorate 51,937
Votes cast 31,524 (60.7%); spoilt votes 559 (1.8%)
Valid votes 30,965; quota 4,424

Analysis: Better balancing from the DUP here would certainly have seen them win an extra seat, probably from Alliance; as it was, Robinson's 4830 surplus went 2943 to Newton, electing him, but only 1230 to Toan, dooming him to elimination. Rodgers managed to halve the gap between his own tally and that of running mate Michael Copeland from 789 to 354 by the final count, but it was not enough.

East Belfast had lost 11.53% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from 17.28% in The Mount ward of Belfast to 6.86% in the Hillfoot ward of Castlereagh. 12 constituencies lost fewer voters, 5 lost more.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

*@Peter Robinson (DUP) 15,667 (42.5%)
Tim Lemon (UUP) 8,550 (23.2%)
David Alderdice (Alliance) 5,832 (15.8%)
@David Ervine (PUP) 3,669 (10.0%) Best result in Northern Ireland
Joe O'Donnell (Sinn Fein) 1,237 (3.4%)
Ciara Farren (SDLP) 888 (2.4%)
Terry Dick (Con) 800 (2.2%)
Joe Bell (WP) 123 (0.3%)
Rainbow George Weiss (Vote for Yourself Party) 71 (0.2%)

Electorate: 58,455; votes cast: 37,031 (63.3%); spoilt votes: 202 (0.5%)
Valid votes: 36,829; DUP majority 7,117

* outgoing MP
@Member of the Assembly

Not a very surprising result, indeed quite a close reproduction of 1997. Even a single pro-Agreement candidate running against Robinson would have had difficulties. If this had been a six-seat Assembly election, the DUP would have won three, and Alliance and the UUP one each, with the PUP probably beating the UUP for the last seat.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

DUP 12970.7 (36%)
UUP 10541.8 (29%)
Alliance 5683 (16%)
PUP 2534.7 (7%)
SDLP 1277.2 (4%)
SF 874.3 (2%)
Conservative Party 365 (1%)
UKUP 338.3 (1%)
Workers Party 86 (0.2%)
Women's Coalition 61.2 (0.2%)
Independents 1506.0 (4%)
Total valid 36238.2

Extrapolating from the these figures , the DUP and UUP would both have won two seats, and Alliance one. The last seat would have been between a third DUP candidate and the PUP.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Peter Robinson MP (DUP) 11,219
*Lord Alderdice (Alliance) 6,144
*Reg Empey (UUP) 5,158
#David Ervine (PUP) 5,114
Ian Adamson (UUP) 3,447
Denny Vitty (UKU) 1,362
Peter Jones (SDLP) 1,025
*Jim Rodgers (UUP) 1,015
Richard Good (Alliance) 1,000
Joe O'Donnell (SF) 917
#Pearl Sagar (NIWC) 711
*Sammy Wilson (DUP) 633
Robert Girvan (UDP) 516
John Norris (DUP) 373
David Bleakley (Lab) 369
Dawn Purvis (PUP) 271
Lesley Donaldson (C) 203
Joe Bell (WP) 79
David Collins (NLP) 22
John Lawrence (Energy 106 Party) 15

DUP 12,225 (30.88%) 2 seats
UUP 9,620 (24.30%) 2 seats
Alliance 7,144 (18.04%) 1 seat
PUP 5,385 (13.60%) 1 seat
UKU 1,362 (3.44%)
SDLP 1,025 (2.59%)
SF 917 (2.32%)
NIWC 711 (1.80%)
UDP 516 (1.30%)
Lab 369 (0.93%)
C 203 (0.51%)
WP 79 (0.20%)
NLP 22 (0.06%)
Energy 15 (0.04%)

Electorate 60,562
Votes cast 40,356 (66.6%); spoilt votes 763 (1.9%)
Valid votes 39,593; quota 5,657

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from East Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

Not a great surprise. Richard Good (Alliance), who finished on 2,975, was a long way behind Ian Adamson (UUP) on 5,414.

1997 Local Government Election

Democratic Unionist Party 10177.8 (36%) (best equivalent result for DUP in NI)
Ulster Unionist Party 8054.3 (28%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 5804 (20%)
Progressive Unionist Party 1654.7 (6%)
Sinn Féin 652 (2%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 553.8 (2%)
United Kingdom Unionist Pary 267 (1%)
Conservative Party 256 (1%)
Ulster Democratic Party 199.2 (1%)
Women's Coalition 99.3 (0.35%)
Workers Party 76.7 (0.27%)
Natural Law Party 37.7 (0.13%)
Ulster Independence 14 (0.05%)
East Belfast Labour 12.7 (0.04%)
Others 259.7 (1%)
Total valid 28,399.3 (45.18% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

*ƒ Peter Robinson (Democratic Unionist Party) 16,640 (42%)
ƒ Reg Empey (Ulster Unionist Party) 9,886 (25%)
Jim Hendron (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 9,288 (24%) (best result for Alliance in NI)
Sarah Dines (Conservative Party) 928 (2%)
Dominic Corr (Sinn Féin) 810 (2%)
Patricia Lewsley (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 629 (2%)
Derek Dougan (Independent) 541 (1%)
Joseph Bell (Workers' Party) 237 (1%)
David Collins (Natural Law Party) 70 (0.18%)
Turnout 39,029 (63.21%)

* outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum

1996 Forum Election (five seats)

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 11,270 (29%); Peter Robinson, Sammy Wilson elected
Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 8,608 (22%); Reg Empey, Jim Rodgers elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 7,130 (19%); John Alderdice elected (best result for Alliance in NI)
Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) 3,802 (10%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKU) 2,496 (7%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 1,299 (3%)
Ulster Democratic Party (UDP) 1,156 (3%)
Sinn Féin (SF) 862 (2%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition (NIWC) 405 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 291 (1%)
Labour (Lab) 199 (1%)
Democratic Partnership 197 (1%)
Green Party 161 (0.42%)
Workers Party (WP) 149 (0.39%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 114 (0.30%)
Independent Democratic Unionist Party 93 (0.24%)
Democratic Left (DL) 45 (0.12%)
Communist Party of Ireland (CP) 38 (0.10%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 13 (0.03%)
Independent Chambers 11 (0.03%)

Electorate: 62,161; votes cast: 38,419 (61.8%); spoilt votes: 80 (0.2%); valid votes: 38,339

Peter Robinson had previously been elected to the 1982 Assembly, and Reg Empey to the 1975 Constitutional Convention, from East Belfast.

Results 1996-2007

	DUP	UKUP	UUP	PUP	Oth U	Alliance	Oth	SDLP	SF
2007a	38%		22%	10%	1%	19%	3%	3%	4%
2005w	49%		30%		1%	12%	1%	3%	3%
2005lg	43%		25%	5%	1%	17%	2%	5%	2%
2003a	39%		33%	10%	1%	9%	1%	3%	4%
2001w	43%		23%	10%	2%	16%	1%	2%	3%
2001lg	36%	1%	29%	7%	1%	16%	4%	4%	3%
1998a	31%	3%	24%	14%	2%	18%	3%	3%	2%
1997lg	36%	1%	28%	6%	3%	20%	2%	2%	2%
1997w	42%		25%		2%	24%	2%	2%	2%
1996f	29%	7%	22%	10%	4%	19%	3%	3%	2%

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 May 2022 by Conal Kelly.

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