South Belfast and Mid Down


Map and graph by Conal Kelly

This constituency takes in the southern quarter of Belfast City Council and adjacent parts of Lisburn and Castlereagh District Council. The MP since 2019 is Claire Hanna (SDLP); she defeated Emma Little Pengelly (DUP) who had held the seat since 2017. Pengelly had defeated Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) who had held the seat between 2005 and 2017. He had replaced the Rev Martin Smyth (UUP) who had retired. Smyth had represented South Belfast since a 1982 by-election caused by the IRA assassination of the previous incumbent, the Rev Robert Bradford. Alliance holds two seats , while SF, DUP, and the SDLP, all hold one Assembly seat each. See the 1983-92 South Belfast results, the 1973-82 South Belfast results and the 1950-1970 South Belfast results.

Under the new boundaries, South Belfast, renamed to South Belfast and Mid Down, is the most changed of all the Northern Ireland seats. It loses 10% of its electorate to East Belfast, but gains a bit more than that from Strangford and Lagan Valley, and a few scrapings from West Belfast. (By the way, I have an idiosyncracy of calling the Belfast constituencies “X Belfast” rather than “Belfast X”. It seems to me that “South Belfast and Mid Down” sounds better than “Belfast South and Mid Down.)

2024 Westminster election

Claire Hanna (SDLP) 21,345 (49.1%, -4.2%)
Kate Nicholl (Alliance) 8,839 (20.3%, +4.9%)
Tracy Kelly (DUP) 6,859 (15.8%, -9.6%)
Michael Henderson (UUP) 2,653 (6.1%, +2.5%)
Dan Boucher (TUV) 2,218 (5.1%)
Áine Groogan (Green) 1,577 (3.6%, +3.5%)

Electorate 74,749; turnout 43,757 (58.5%); valid votes 43,491; invalid 266 (0.6%)

SDLP vote down slightly but still a solid result.

In a five-seat Assembly election, this would give the SDLP three seats, and Alliance and the DUP one each.

2019 Westminster notional result on new boundaries:

SDLP 25,409 (53.3%)
DUP 12,097 (25.4%)
Alliance 7,348 (15.4%)
UUP 1,703 (3.6%)
Aontu 568 (1.2%)
SF 247 (0.5%)
Conservative 167 (0.3%)
Green 73 (0.2%)
PBP 67 (0.1%)

See spreadsheets from the 2011 Assembly election, the 2010 Westminster election, the 2007 Assembly election, the 2005 Westminster election, the 2003 Assembly election, the 2001 Westminster election, the 1998 Assembly election, the 1997 Westminster election and the 1996 Forum/talks election. See also the detailed guide from 2007 by "Sammy Morse".

		DUP	UUP	Con	APNI	Gr	PBP	SDLP	SF	Aontu
2019 actual		11,678	1,259		6,786			27,079		550
		24.7%	2.7%		14.3%			57.2%		1.2%
From South Belfast	To South Belfast & Mid Down	9,786	1,055		6,028			25,136		550
From South Belfast	To East Belfast	-1,890	-204		-758			-1,939
From South Belfast	To West Belfast	-1			-3			-1
From Strangford	To South Belfast & Mid Down	1,634	372	136	981	73		207
From Lagan Valley	To South Belfast & Mid Down	611	276	31	320			34	22
From West Belfast	To South Belfast & Mid Down	56			20		67	32	225	18
2019 notional		12,087	1,703	167	7,348	73	67	25,409	247	568
		25.4%	3.6%	0.3%	15.4%	0.2%	0.1%	53.3%	0.5%	1.2%
		+0.7%	+0.9%	+0.3%	+1.1%	+0.2%	+0.1%	-3.9%	+0.5%	-

Results of recent elections

	DUP	UUP	Oth U	Alliance	Green	Oth	SDLP	SF
2024w	15.8%	6.1%	5.1%	20.3%	3.6%		49.1%
2022a	15.4%	6.5%	4.1%	24.9%	8.6%	4.3%	15.8%	20.3%
2019w	24.7%	2.7%		14.3%		1.2%	57.2%
2019lg	22.9%	6.1%	2.7%	24.5%	9.5%	5.2%	15.3%	13.2%
2017w	30.4%	3.5%	0.6%	18.2%	5.1%		25.9%	16.3%
2017a	20.8%	9.0%	2.1%	17.8%	9.9%	3.4%	19.4%	17.7%
2016a	22.0%	6.7%	7.4%	16.4%	9.6%	3.4%	20.0%	14.2%
2015w	22.2%	9.1%	6.4%	17.2%	5.7%	0.9%	24.5%	13.9%
2014lg	20.4%	10.1%	8.0%	19.4%	4.0%	6.1%	18.9%	13.5%
2011a	24.3%	13.6%	0.7%	19.8%	2.8%	2.4%	23.9%	12.5%
2011lg	24.0%	12.8%	1.4%	20.5%	3.0%	2.1%	23.9%	12.2%
2010w	23.7%	17.3%		15.0%	3.0%		41.0%
2007a	23.6%	17.9%	2.8%	13.0%	2.4%	1.9%	25.6%	12.8%
2005w	29.6%	22.2%		7.2%		1.8%	30.1%	9.0%
2005lg	25.0%	17.1%	0.1%	13.1%	1.2%	2.0%	26.9%	14.4%

NB that the figures for elections before 2010 are projections. Figures for the previous boundaries can be found at the bottom of the page.
NB also that the Conservatives got 0.4% in 2007 (on the previous boundaries) and supported the UUP in 2010.

2022 Assembly election (five seats)

@Deirdre Hargey (SF) 9,511 (20.3%)
@Edwin Poots (DUP) 7,211 (15.4%)
@Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 6,503 (13.9%)
@Matthew O'Toole (SDLP) 5,394 (11.5%)
Kate Nicholl (Alliance) 5,201 (11.1%)
Clare Bailey (Green) 4,058 (8.6%)
Stephen McCarthy (UUP) 3,061 (6.5%)
Elsie Trainor (SDLP) 2,030 (4.3%)
Andrew Girvin (TUV) 1,935 (4.1%)
Luke McCann (Aontú) 806 (1.7%)
Sipho Sibanda (PBP) 629 (1.3%)
Neil Moore (SP) 353 (0.8%)
Patrick Lynn (WP) 139 (0.3%)
Elly Odhiambo (Ind) 107 (0.2%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.
Note Edwin Poots had been elected for Lagan Valley in 2017.

Alliance 11,704 (24.9%, +7.1%) 2 seats
SF 9,511 (20.3%, +2.6%) 1 seat
SDLP 7,424 (15.8%, -3.6%) 1 seat
DUP 7,211 (15.4%, -5.4%) 1 seat
Green 4,058 (8.6%, -1.3%) (-1)
UUP 3,061 (6.5%, -2.5%)
TUV 1,935 (4.1%, +2.5%)
Aontú 806 (1.7%)
PBP 629 (1.3%, -0.1%)
SP 353 (0.8%)
WP 139 (0.3%, -0.1%)
Ind 107 (0.2%)

Electorate: 73,497
Votes cast: 47,306 (64.4%), spoilt votes 368 (0.8%)
Valid votes: 46,938, quota 7,824

Alliance's Kate Nicholl took Green Party leader Clare Bailey's seat by 911 votes on the eight and final count, with an undistributed Alliance surplus of 499 which would have widened the gap and an undistributed DUP surplus of 265 which would have made little difference. Despite the loss, this was the Green Party's best result of the election with 8.6% of the first preference vote. At 26%, the combined unionist vote is at an all-time low in South Belfast, while on the nationalist side the SDLP fell behind Sinn Fein for the first time.

2019 Westminster election

@Claire Hanna (SDLP) 27,079 (57.2%, +31.3%)
*Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) 11,678 (24.7%, -5.8%)
@Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 6,786 (14.3%, -3.9%)
Michael Henderson (UUP) 1,259 (2.7%, -0.8%)
Chris McHugh (Aontú) 550 (1.2%, +1.2%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly.

Electorate: 69,984; Total Poll: 47,527 (67.9%); Invalid Votes: 175 (0.4%); Valid Votes: 47,352

This was one of the SDLP's two gains in the election; Hanna benefited from the absence of SF and Greens but clearly picked up votes from all anti-Brexit quarters. This is the only seat where the Alliance vote actually decreased. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would give the SDLP three seats and the DUP and Alliance one each. two.

2019 local government election

From the 2011 census, South Belfast includes:

The entire Belfast DEA of Botanic
98% of the Belfast DEA of Balmoral
55% of the Belfast DEA of Lisnasharragh
17% of the Belfast DEA of Titanic
and
95% of the Lisburn and Castlereagh DEA of Castlereagh South

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2019 results as:

Alliance 8,557 (24.5%)
DUP 7,983 (22.9%)
SDLP 5,348 (15.3%)
SF 1,034 (13.2%)
Green 3,303 (9.5%)
UUP 2,117 (6.1%)
Inds 983 (2.8%)
PBP 654 (1.9%)
PUP 483 (1.4%)
SBU 233 (0.7%)
TUV 219 (0.6%)
CCLA 88 (0.3%)
WP 87 (0.2%)

If cast in a five-seat STV election, those votes would certainly give the DUP, Alliance and SDLP a seat each. The last two are trickier to call. Alliance and the Greens are both in contention for the second non-aligned seat. If the DUP were lucky with Unionist transfers, they would get a second seat; if not, it's close between Sinn Féin and a third centrist.

2017 Westminster election

Emma Little Pengelly (DUP) 13,299 (30.4%, +8.2%)
*Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 11,303 (25.9%, +1.4%)
@Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 7,946 (18.2%, +1.0%)
@Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF) 7,143 (16.3%, +2.4%)
@Clare Bailey (Green) 2,241 (5.1%, -0.6%)
Michael Henderson (UUP) 1,527 (3.5%, -5.6%)
Clare Salier (Con) 246 (0.6%, -0.9%)

* outgoing MP.
@ member of the Assembly

Electorate: 66,105; Total Poll: 43,851 (66.3%); Invalid Votes: 130 (0.3%); Valid Votes: 43,721

One of the DUP's gains in the election, with Little Pengelly who missed election to the Assembly by a very narrow margin three months earlier taking the Westminster seat from the former SDLP leader. In a five-seat Assembly election, these votes would elect two DUP MLAs and one each from the SDLP, Alliance and Sinn Fein.

2017 Assembly election (five seats)

@Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF) 7,610 (17.7%)
@Claire Hanna (SDLP) 6,559 (15.2%)
@Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 5,595 (13.0%)
@Christopher Stalford (DUP) 4,529 (10.5%)
@Emma Little-Pengelly (DUP) 4,446 (10.3%)
@Clare Bailey (Green) 4,247 (9.9%)
Michael Henderson (UUP) 3,863 (9.0%)
Emmet Mcdonough-Brown (Alliance) 2,053 (4.8%)
Naomh Gallagher (SDLP) 1,794 (4.2%)
Pádraigín Mervyn (PBP) 760 (1.8%)
John Hiddleston (TUV) 703 (1.6%)
Sean Burns (Cross Comm Lab Alt) 531 (1.2%)
George Jabbour (Con) 200 (0.5%)
Lily Kerr (WP) 163 (0.4%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

DUP 8,975 (20.8%, -1.2%) 1 seat (-1)
SDLP 8,353 (19.4%, 0.6%) 1 seat
Alliance 7,648 (17.8%, +1.4%) 1 seat
SF 7,610 (17.7%, +3.5%) 1 seat
Green 4,247 (9.9%, +0.3%) 1 seat
UUP 3,863 (9.0%, +2.3%)
PBP 760 (1.8%)
TUV 703 (1.6%, +0.3%)
Cross Comm Lab Alt 531 (1.2%)
Con 200 (0.5%, +0.1%)
WP 163 (0.4%, -0.3%)

Electorate: 67,953
Votes cast: 43,465 (64.0%, +9.7%), spoilt votes 412 (0.9%)
Valid votes: 43,053, quota 7,176

This turned into a real nail-biter, the last result to be declared on the night of the count. On the penultimate count, Emma Little Pengelly of the DUP was only 25.24 votes behind her running mate Christopher Stalford, and only 58.14 behind the UUP's Michael Henderson (who had been lifted ahead of the two DUP candidates by SDLP transfers). Little Pengelly's 4,703.26 votes split 3939 to Stalford, 494.54 to Henderson and a crucial 77.86 to Claire Bailey of the Greens; that left Stalford with a surplus of 1491.50 and Bailey with an unbridgeable margin of 1541.28 ahead of Henderson. A more even split among the DUP transfers would have delivered a different result.

2016 Brexit referendum

Total electorate: 66,664
Turnout: 44,583 (66.9%), 3/18.
Invalid votes: 27 (0.06%)
Votes to REMAIN: 30,960 (69.5%);
Votes to LEAVE: 13,596 (30.5%).
Third highest REMAIN vote share in Northern Ireland.

2016 Assembly election (six seats)

@Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (Sinn Féin) 5,207
@Claire Hanna (SDLP) 4,516
@Emma Little Pengelly (DUP) 4,511
Christopher Stalford (DUP) 3,570
Clare Bailey (Green) 3,521
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 3,332
@Fearghal McKinney (SDLP) 2,845
Duncan Morrow (Alliance) 2,691
Rodney McCune (UUP) 2,466
Seán Burns (CCLA) 871
Bob Stoker (UKIP) 794
John Hiddleston (TUV) 495
Ruth Patterson (Ind) 475
Ian Shanks (PUP) 430
Billy Dickson (SBU) 351
Brigitte "Gitty" Anton (NILRC) 246
Lily Kerr (WP) 241
Ben Manton (Conservative) 161

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

DUP 8,081 (22.0%, -2.3%) 2 seats (+1)
SDLP 7,361 (20.0%, -3.9%) 1 seat (-1)
Alliance 6,023 (16.4%, -3.4%) 1 seat
Sinn Féin 5,207 (14.2%, +1.7%) 1 seat
Green 3,521 (9.6%, +6.8%) 1 seat (+1)
UUP 2,466 (6.7%, /6.9%) 0 seats (-1)
CCLA 871 (2.4%)
UKIP 794 (2.2%, +1.5%)
TUV 495 (1.3%)
Ind 475 (1.3%)
PUP 430 (1.2%)
SBU 351 (1.0%)
NILRC 246 (0.7%)
WP 241 (0.7%, +0.3%)
Conservative 161 (0.4%)

Electorate 68,469
Votes cast 37,147 (54.3%, +1.8%); spoilt votes 424 (1.1%)
Valid votes 36,723; quota 5,247

Dramatic shifts here, with the UUP collapsing out of the race and SDLP declining to below the level where their second seat could be maintained. The DUP managed good vote discipline, Christopher Stalford finishing 959.75 ahead of the UUP's Rodney McCune, and the Green Party pulled off a dramatic success here.

This is the only constituency that elected four women to the new Assembly.

2015 Westminster election

*Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 9,560 (24.5%, -16.5%)
Jonathan Bell (DUP) 8,654 (22.2%, -1.5%)
Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) 6,711 (17.2%, +2.3%)
Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (SF) 5,402 (13.9%)
Rodney McCune (UUP) 3,549 (9.1%, -8.2%)
Clare Bailey (Green) 2,238 (5.7%, +2.7%)
Bob Stoker (UKIP) 1,900 (4.9%)
Ben Manton (Conservative) 582 (1.5%)
Lily Kerr (WP) 361 (0.9%)
Electorate: 64,927; Total Poll: 39,140 (60.3%); Invalid Votes: 183 (0.5%); Valid Votes: 38,957

McDonnell's vote share of less than 25% is the lowest ever for a winning candidate in a single-seat Westminster election.

If cast in a six-seat Assembly election, these votes would probably give the SDLP and DUP two seats, and Alliance and SF one.

2014 local government election

From the 2011 census, South Belfast includes:

With some adjustment for voter community background, I project the 2014 results as:

DUP 6618 (20%)
Alliance 6311 (19%)
SDLP 6146 (19%)
SF 4374 (13%)
UUP 3279 (10%)
NI21 1466 (5%)
PUP 1307 (4%)
Green 1295 (4%)
TUV 1092 (3%)
Cons 197 (1%)
Soc 183 (1%)
WP 118 (0.4%)
Ind 68 (0.2%)

If cast in a six-seat STV election, those votes would certainly give the DUP, Alliance and SDLP a seats each. There is certainly one more Unionist seat, and the UUP would be best placed to take it. SF would likely to take one of the other two, with the last potentially going either to the second Alliance or SDLP runners, depending on balancing, or maybe even to a third Unionist (likely the second DUP runner) if they balance better.

2011 Assembly election (six seats)

@Anna Lo (Alliance) 6,390 (19.8%)
@Alasdair McDonnell MP (SDLP) 4,527 (14.0%)
@Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 4,045 (12.5%)
@Alex Maskey (SF) 4,038 (12.5%)
Ruth Patterson (DUP) 3,800 (11.8%)
@Conall McDevitt (SDLP) 3,191 (9.9%)
@Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 2,988 (9.2%)
Mark Finlay (UUP) 1,394 (4.3%)
Clare Bailey (Green) 889 (2.8%)
Brian Faloon (PBPA) 414 (1.3%)
Paddy Meehan (Socialist) 234 (0.7%)
Nico Torregrosa (UKIP) 234 (0.7%)
Paddy Lynn (WP) 135 (0.4%)
Charles Smyth (Pro-Capitalist) 29 (0.1%)

@ member of the Assembly when it was dissolved.

DUP 7,845 (24.3%, +0.7%) 1 seat
SDLP 7,718 (23.9%, -1.7%) 2 seats
Alliance 6,390 (19.8%, +6.8%) 1 seat
UUP 4,382 (13.6%, -4.3%) 1 seat
SF 4,038 (12.5%, -0.3%) 1 seat
Green 889 (2.8%, +0.3%)
PBPA 414 (1.3%)
Socialist 234 (0.7%, -0.1%)
UKIP 234 (0.7%)
WP 135 (0.4%, +0.01%)
Pro-Capitalism 29 (0.1%, +0.02%)

Electorate 62,484
Votes cast 32,752 (52.4%); spoilt votes 444 (1.4%)
Valid votes 32,308; quota 4,616

On first preferences it looked as if the DUP might make a gain from the SDLP or UUP, but in fact Patterson was unable to attract transfers, and finished almost 120 votes behind her own running mate Spratt, and more than 280 behind McDevitt of the SDLP and McGimpsey of the UUP.

2011 local government election

My projection of the votes cast in Balmoral, Laganbank, two Pottinger wards, Castlreagh West, most of Castlereagh South and Wynchurch is as follows:

DUP 7,763 (24.0%)
SDLP 7,734 (23.9%)
Alliance 6,625 (20.5%)
UUP 4,129 (12.8%)
SF 3,940 (12.2%)
Green 966 (3.0%)
PBPA 368 (1.1%)
PUP 362 (1.1%)
Socialist 187 (0.6%)
TUV 86 (0.3%)
Procapitalist 3 (0.01%)
Inds 11 (0.03%)

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would have given all the five main parties a seat each, with the last between second runners from the DUP and SDLP (and possibly Alliance).

2010 Westminster election (one seat)

*@Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 14,026 (41.0%, +8.9%)
@ Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 8,100 (23.7%, -6.1%)
Paula Bradshaw (UCUNF) 5,910 (17.3%, -4.9%)
@Anna Lo (Alliance) 5,114 (15.0%, +7.8%)
Adam McGibbon (Green) 1,036 (3.0%)
Electorate: 59,524; Total Poll: 34,359 (57.7%); Invalid Votes: 173 (0.5%); Valid Votes: 34,186

* incumbent
@ elected to the Northern Ireland Assembly from this constituency

An excellent result for the SDLP, who were helped by Sinn Féin's decision not to contest the seat, but on these figures would probably have won anyway. Unionist voters from 2005 seem to have simply not turned out this time, or supported Alliance instead. On these figures, the SDLP would probably win three Assembly seats, the other three going to DUP, UUP and Alliance.

2007 Assembly Election

Full details of each count are available here.

Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 4762 (15.7%)
*Alasdair McDonnell MP (SDLP) 4379 (14.4%)
*Alex Maskey (SF) 3996 (13.2%)
Anna Lo (Alliance) 3829 (12.6%)
*Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3748 (12.4%)
*Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 2647 (8.7%)
Christopher Stalford (DUP) 2035 (6.7%)
*Esmond Birnie (UUP) 1804 (5.9%)
Bobby Stoker (UUP) 1122 (3.7%)
Brenda Cooke (Green) 737 (2.4%)
Andrew Park (PUP) 410 (1.4%)
David Hoey (UKUP) 298 (1.0%)
James Barbour (Socialist) 248 (0.8%)
Patrick Joseph Lynn (WP) 123 (0.4%)
Roger Lomas (Conservative) 108 (0.4%)
Rainbow George (Make Politicians History) 66 (0.2%)
Charles Smyth (Procapitalism) 22 (0.1%)
Geoffrey Wilson (Independent) 10 (0.03%)

*Elected in 2003 from South Belfast

SDLP 8,127 (26.8%, +3.9%) 2 seats
DUP 6,797 (22.4%, +1.6%) 1 seat
UUP 5,573 (18.4%, -8.7%) 1 seat (-1)
SF 3,996 (13.2%, +0.6%) 1 seat
Alliance 3,829 (12.6%, +6.7%) 1 seat (+1)
Green 737 (2.4%, +1.4%)
PUP 410 (1.4%, -0.2%)
UKUP 298 (1.0%)
Socialist (0.8%, +0.3%)
WP 123 (0.4%, +0.1%)
Conservative 108 (0.4%, -0.01%)
Rainbow George 66 (0.2%, +0.1%)
Procapitalism 22 (0.1)
Ind 10 (0.03%)

Electorate 48,923
Votes cast 30,353 (62.4%); spoilt votes 189 (0.6%)
Valid votes 30,344; quota 4,335

There were three quotas of Unionist votes here, but only two Unionist seats as both DUP and UUP failed to balance their candidates. Alliance surprised many (but not me) by taking a seat: the big surprise was that it came at the expense of the UUP, rather than either nationalist party, both of whom improved their ground with impressive balancing from the SDLP. On the last count Stalford (DUP) was 892 votes behind Maskey (SF), with undistributed surpluses of 592 from the UUP and 80 from Alliance, of which the former would have narrowed the gap.

2005 Westminster election (5 May, 1 seat)

@Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 10,339 (32.3% +1.7%)
Jimmy Spratt (DUP) 9,104 (28.4%)
@Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 7,263 (22.7% -22.1%)
@Alex Maskey (Sinn Fein) 2,882 (9.0% +1.4%)
Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 2,012 (6.3% +0.9%)
Lynda Gilby (Vote for Yourself Rainbow Dream Ticket) 235 (0.7% +0.4%)
Patrick Joseph Lynn (Workers Party) 193 (0.6% +0.1%)

@ Member of the Assembly

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would give the SDLP and DUP two seats each, and the UUP one. SF would be best placed to take the last seat.

2005 local government election (5 May)

The constituency comprises 13 of the 51 wards in Belfast (all 6 wards in the Balmoral DEA, all 5 wards in the Laganbank DEA, and 2 of the 6 wards in the Pottinger DEA [Ravenhill and Woodstock]), and 6 of the 23 wards in Castlereagh (4 of the 5 wards in the Castlereagh West DEA [Beechill, Galwally, Minnowburn and Newtownbreda]) and 2 of the 5 wards in the Castlereagh South DEA [Cairnshill and Knockbracken]).

SDLP 8,538.5 (26.9%)
DUP 8,057.8 (25.4%)
UUP 6,250.5 (19.7%)
Alliance 4,045.6 (12.8%)
Sinn Fein 3,274.7 (10.3%)
Independents 425.8 (1.3%)
PUP 385.3 (1.2%)
Green 369.0 (1.2%)
Socialist Party (229.3 0.7%)
WP 142.0 (0.4%)

In a six-seat STV election, these votes would probably give the SDLP and DUP two seats each, and the UUP and Alliance one each.

2003 Assembly election (26 November; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 5389 (17.2%)
*Mark Robinson (DUP) 3991 (12.7%)
#Alex Maskey (SF) 3933 (12.6%)
*Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3910 (12.5%)
*Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 3266 (10.4%)
Ruth Patterson (DUP) 2538 (8.1%)
*Esmond Birnie (UUP) 2311 (7.4%)
*Monica McWilliams (NIWC) 2150 (6.9%)
Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 1185 (3.8%)
John Hiddleston (UUP) 769 (2.5%)
Tom Ekin (Alliance) 664 (2.1%)
Thomas Morrow (PUP) 495 (1.6%)
John Wright (Green) 308 (1.0%)
James Barbour (Soc) 167 (0.5%)
Roger Lomas (Con) 116 (0.4%)
Patrick Lynn (WP) 96 (0.3%)
Lindsay Steven (VFYS) 42 (0.1%)

UUP 8,469 (27.0%, +3.6%) 2 seats
SDLP 7,176 (22.9%, +1.2%) 2 seats
DUP 6,529 (20.8%, +6.7%) 1 seat
SF 3,933 (12.6%, +6.2%) 1 seat
NIWC 2,150 (6.9%, -2.7%) Best result for NIWC in Northern Ireland
Alliance 1,849 (5.9%, -4.1%)
PUP 495 (1.6%, -3.6%)
Green 308 (1.0%)
Soc 167 (0.5%)
Cons 116 (0.4%, +0.2%)
WP 96 (0.3%, -0.1%)
VFYP 42 (0.1%)

Electorate 50,707
Votes cast 31,737 (62.6%); spoilt votes 407 (1.3%)
Valid votes 31,330; quota 4,476

* Outgoing member for South Belfast
# Outgoing member for West Belfast

SF gain from Monica McWilliams of the NIWC.

South Belfast had lost 16.98% of its electorate in the great electoral register shake-out, varying from a whopping 41.60% in the Botanic ward of Belfast to 8.09% in the Knockbracken ward of Castlereagh. 16 constituencies lost fewer voters, only West Belfast lost more.

2001 Westminster Election (7 June; 1 seat)

*Martin Smyth (UUP) 17,008 (44.8%)
@Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 11,609 (30.6%)
@Monica McWilliams (NIWC) 2,968 (7.8%)
@Alex Maskey (Sinn Fein) 2,894 (7.6%)
Geraldine Rice (Alliance) 2,042 (5.4%)
Dawn Purvis (PUP) 1,112 (2.9%)
Paddy Lynn (WP) 204 (0.5%)
Rainbow George Weiss (Vote for Yourself Party) 115 (0.3%)

Electorate: 59,436; votes cast: 38,185 (64.25%); spoilt votes: 233 (0.6%)
Valid votes: 37,952; UUP majority 5,399

* Outgoing MP
@ Member of the Assembly

This was the first result to be declared in the 2001 election; fevered speculation than McDonnell might win on a split Unionist vote rapidly turned out to be as fanciful as most of the SDLP's predictions about this election. For the first time ever, less than half the voters of South Belfast voted Unionist. A six-seat Assembly election on these votes would give the UUP three seats and the SDLP two, with the last probably going to the Women's Coalition.

2001 Local Government Election (7 June)

Votes cast in 2001 were as follows:

UUP 11020.5 (29%)
SDLP 9052.4 (25%)
DUP 6274.1 (17%)
Alliance 4204 (11%)
SF 3803.1 (10%)
PUP 1517.5 (4%)
NIWC 947.8 (3%)
WP 201 (1%)
Cons 42.8 (0.1%)
UKUP 24.7 (0.1%)
Inds 341.7 (1%)
Total Valid 35410.5

There are three Unionist seats, which would go two to the UUP and one to the DUP. The SDLP have one seat for sure, but the last two seats would be very close between a second SDLP candidate, SF and Alliance.

1998 Assembly Election (25 June; six seats)

Also available: details of each count with analysis of surplus transfers.

*Alasdair McDonnell (SDLP) 4,956
Michael McGimpsey (UUP) 4,938
*Steve McBride (All) 4,086
#Monica McWilliams (NIWC) 3,912
Carmel Hanna (SDLP) 3,882
Esmond Birnie (UUP) 2,875
Mark Robinson (DUP) 2,872
Sean Hayes (SF) 2,605
Myreve Chambers (DUP) 2,449
Ernie Purvis (PUP) 2,112
David Adams (UDP) 1,745
*Jim Clarke (UUP) 1,720
Grant Dillon (UKU) 1,496
Wiliam Dixon (Unionist) 437
Boyd Black (Lab) 231
Paddy Lynn (WP) 176
Roger Lomas (C) 97
James Anderson (NLP) 73
Niall Cusack (Lab) 62

UUP 9,533 (23.41%) 2 seats
SDLP 8,838 (21.70%) 2 seats
DUP 5,321 (13.07%) 1 seat
All 4,086 (10.03%)
NI Women 3,912 (9.61%) 1 seat
SF 2,605 (6.40%)
PUP 2,112 (5.19%)
UDP 1,745 (4.28%)
UKU 1,496 (3.67%)
Unionist 437 (1.07%)
Lab 293 (0.72%)
WP 176 (0.43%)
C 97 (0.24%)
NLP 73 (0.18%)

Electorate: 61,209
Votes cast: 41,266 (67.4%); spoilt votes: 542 (1.3%)

* elected in 1996 Forum/talks election from South Belfast
# elected in 1996 Forum/talks election as a 'top-up' candidate.

This was always the most likely place for the Women's Coalition to break through. A bitterly disappointing result for Alliance, whose Steve McBride came third in terms of first preference votes but was overtaken by four other candidates. On the final count he had 4,832 votes to Hanna's 4,983. There were 143 undistributed UUP votes from McGimpsey's and Birnie's surpluses, which would have gone a long way to making up the difference, so the effective margin of defeat was more on the order of 15 votes than 151.

1997 Local Government Election

Ulster Unionist Party 7,938.7 (26%)
Social Democratic and Labour Party 6,422.8 (21%)
Democratic Unionist Party 4,955.2 (16%)
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland 4,480.2 (15%)
Progressive Unionist Party 2,125.3 (7%)
Sinn Féin 1,714 (6%)
Women's Coalition 691.7 (2%)
Ulster Democratic Party 576.3 (2%)
Green Party 230 (1%)
Workers Party 198.3 (1%)
Conservative Party 71 (0.24%)
Natural Law Party 24 (0.08%)
Ulster Independence 7 (0.02%)
Eastr Belfast Labour 6.3 (0.02%)
Total Valid 31,155.4 (46.77% of electorate)

1997 Westminster Election (one seat)

* Martin Smyth (Ulster Unionist Party) 14,201 (36%)
ƒ Alasdair McDonnell (Social Democratic and Labour Party) 9,601 (24%)
ƒ David Ervine (Progressive Unionist Party) 5,687 (14%)
ƒ Steve McBride (Alliance Party of Northern Ireland) 5,112 (13%)
Sean Hayes (Sinn Féin) 2,019 (5%)
Annie Campbell (Northern Ireland Women's Coalition) 1,204 (3%)
Myrtle Boal (Conservative Party) 962 (2%)
Niall Cusack (Independent Labour) 292 (1%)
Patrick Lynn (Workers' Party) 286 (1%)
James Anderson (Natural Law Party) 120 (0.30%)
Turnout 39,484 (62.24%)

* Outgoing MP
ƒ Member of the Forum

1996 Forum Election

Also available: full list of 1996 candidates

Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) 8,617 (23%); Robert Stoker, James Clarke elected
Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) 7,956 (21%); Alasdair McDonnell elected
Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) 5,818 (15%); Joan Parkes elected
Alliance Party of Northern Ireland (APNI) 4,689 (12%); Steve McBride elected
Sinn Féin (SF) 2,455 (6%)
Progressive Unionist Party 2,321 (6%)
United Kingdom Unionist Party (UKUP) 1,750 (5%)
Ulster Democratic Party 1,666 (4%)
Northern Ireland Women's Coalition 947 (3%)
Labour (Lab) 333 (1%)
Green Party 314 (1%)
Conservative Party (Con) 279 (1%)
Workers Party (WP) 270 (1%)
Democratic Partnership 133 (0.35%)
Ulster Independence Movement (UIM) 108 (0.29%)
Democratic Left (DL) 96 (0.25%)
Ulster Christian Democrat Party (UCD) 31 (0.08%)
Natural Law Party (NLP) 13 (0.03%)
Independent Chambers 5 (0.01%)

Electorate: 63,890; votes cast: 37,897 (59.3%); spoilt votes: 89 (0.2%); valid votes: 37,808

Results 1996-2007

	DUP	UUP	PUP	Oth U	Alliance	NIWC	Oth	SDLP	SF
2007a	22%	18%	1%	1%	13%		4%	27%	13%
2005w	28%	23%			6%		1%	32%	9%
2005lg	25%	20%	1%		13%		4%	27%	10%
2003a	21%	27%	2%	0%	6%	7%	2%	23%	13%
2001w		45%	3%		5%	8%	1%	31%	8%
2001lg	17%	29%	4%	2%	11%	3%	2%	24%	10%
1998a	13%	23%	5%	9%	10%	10%	1%	22%	6%
1997lg	16%	26%	7%	2%	15%	2%	1%	21%	6%
1997w		36%	14%	2%	13%	3%	2%	24%	5%
1996f	15%	23%	6%	10%	12%	3%	3%	21%	6%

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

This page has been developed with the support of a project grant from the New Initiatives Fund of the Electoral Commission. However, any views expressed on this page or, in particular, other pages of this website are those of the author and not necessarily shared by The Electoral Commission.

Nicholas Whyte, 3 June 1998; last updated 7 May 2022 by Conal Kelly.

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