Northern Ireland and the European Parliament

Members of the European Parliament have been directly elected since 1979. The whole of Northern Ireland forms a three-member constituency, and elections take place every five years by proportional representation (using the Single Transferable Vote) as for local councils and most regional-level elections. The first five elections produced very similar results, with the DUP (Ian Paisley Sr), SDLP (John Hume) and UUP (John Taylor, now Lord Kilclooney, in 1979 and 1984, Jim Nicholson in 1989, 1994 and 1999) taking one seat each at every election. In 2004, Paisley was replaced on the DUP ticket by Jim Allister, and Hume was replaced on the SDLP ticket by Martin Morgan; the seat, however, was lost to Bairbre de Brún of Sinn Féin. Allister left the DUP in 2007, and lost his seat in 2009 to Diane Dodds of his former party. Bairbre de Brún of Sinn Féin resigned on health grounds in 2012 and was replaced by her party colleague Martina Anderson.

The 2009 European elections took place on 22 May 2014, and the votes were counted on Monday 26 May and Tuesday 27 May.

The 2014 European Elections

Jim Allister MLA, the first former MEP for Northern Ireland to seek re-election after defeat; he is the leader of Traditional Unionist Voice and represents North Antrim in the Assembly. He served as an MEP 2004-09, having previously represented DUP in the 1982-86 Assembly for North Antrim. He came close to winning the new East Antrim seat for the DUP in the 1983 Westminster election, and was a DUP councillor in Newtownabbey from 1985 to 1989.

Martina Anderson MEP of Sinn Féin; she has been a member of the European Parliament since 2012. She was elected to the Assembly from Foyle in 2007 and 2011, but resigned her seat there on becoming an MEP.

Alex Attwood MLA of the SDLP; has been a member of the Assembly for West Belfast since 1998; was elected to Belfast City Council in 1993, 1997 and 2001.

Mark Brotherston of the Conservative Party; this is his first election, but he was also contesting (and lost) a local government seat in the new North Down and Ards council.

Ross Brown of the Green Party NI; this is his first election, but he was also contesting (and won) a local government seat in the new Belfast City Council.

Diane Dodds MEP of the DUP; she has been a member of the European Parliament since 2009, and previously represented West Belfast in the Assembly 2003-2007 and was elected to Belfast City Council in 2005.

Anna Lo MLA of the Alliance Party; she has represented South Belfast in the Assembly since 2007.

Tina McKenzie of NI21; this is her first election, but she was also contesting (and lost) a local government seat in the new Belfast City Council.

Jim Nicholson MEP of the UUP, Northern Ireland's longest serving representative in Europe; he has been a member of the European Parliament since 1989 and was previously MP for Newry and Armagh from 1983-1986, a member of the 1982-86 Assembly for Armagh, and a councillor in Armagh from 1977 to 1997

and Henry Reilly of UKIP; he was elected to Newry and Mourne Council for the UUP in 1993, 1997, 2001 and 2005, and again as UKIP in 2011; he was also contesting (and won) a local government seat in the new Newry, Mourne and Down council.

First Preference Votes

Martina Anderson (SF) 159,813 (25.5%, -0.5%) elected
Diane Dodds (DUP) 131,163 (20.9%, +2.7%)
Jim Nicholson (UUP) 83,438 (13.3%, -3.8%) – worst UUP euro result
Alex Attwood (SDLP) 81,594 (13.0%, -3.2%) – worst ever SDLP result
Jim Allister (TUV) 75,806 (12.1%, -1.6%)
Anna Lo (Alliance) 44,432 (7.1%, +1.6%) – best ever euro result
Henry Reilly (UKIP) 24,584 (3.9%)
Ross Brown (Green) 10,598 (1.7% -1.6%)
Tina McKenzie (NI21) 10,553 (1.7%)
Mark Brotherston (Conservative) 4,144 (0.7%)
(NB Nicholson supported by Conservatives in 2009.)

Total poll 636,093 (51%, up from 43% last time); total valid poll 626,125; quota 156,532

I am grateful to Peter Weir MLA for pointing out that this is probably the first ever election across Northern Ireland in which a majority of votes were cast for women.

Second Count

Anderson’s 3,281 surplus could not have pulled Brotherston ahead of McKenzie, so the 4,144 Conservative votes transferred as follows:

Dodds (DUP) + 668 (16.1%) = 131,631
Nicholson (UUP) + 980 (23.6%) = 84,418
Attwood (SDLP) + 196 (4.7%) = 81,790
Allister (TUV) + 376 (9.1%) = 76,182
Lo (Alliance) + 546 (13.2%) = 44,978
Reilly (UKIP) + 330 (8.0%) = 24,914
Brown (Green) + 325 (7.8%) = 10,923
McKenzie (NI21) +270 (6.5%) = 10,823

453 (10.9%) non-transferable.

Third Count

Most unfortunately, the total of Anderson’s surplus and McKenzie and Brown’s votes was slightly more than Reilly’s total at this stage, so all 159,183 SF votes now had to be examined for their next valid preference (ie anyone except Brotherston) and reallocated at a value of .03. This brought the remaining candidates to the following totals (percentages are the share of Anderson’s total first preference vote which went to each candidate, not the share of the transferred surplus):

Dodds (DUP) + 14.52 (0.3%) = 131,845.52
Nicholson (UUP) +8.31 (0.2%) = 84,426.31
Attwood (SDLP) + 2056.26 (42.9%) = 83,846.26
Allister (TUV) + 13.53 (0.3%) = 76,195.53
Lo (Alliance) + 314.70 (6.6%) = 45,292.70
Reilly (UKIP) + 31.08 (0.6%) = 24,945.08
Brown (Green) + 115.53 (2.4%) = 11,038.53
McKenzie (NI21) + 39.00 (0.8%) = 10,862.00

The non-transferable figure is 688.07, but in fact 73,382 (45.9%) of Anderson’s papers did not have a further preference (or only for Brotherston).

Fourth Count

Brown and McKenzie’s joint total still being less than Reilly’s, both are eliminated and the Green and NI21 votes transferred as follows:

Dodds (DUP) + 1,619.98 (7.4%) = 133,465.5
Attwood (SDLP) + 3,182.57 (14.5%) = 87,028.83
Nicholson (UUP) + 2,246.23 (10.3%) = 86,672.54
Allister (TUV) + 870.05 (4.0%) = 77,065.58
Lo (Alliance) + 8,661.10 (39.5%) = 53,953.80
Reilly (UKIP + 1,072.28 (4.9%) = 26,017.36

4,248.32 (19.4%) non-transferable.

Fifth Count

Reilly and Lo's votes together were just ahead of Allister's, so Reilly alone was excluded. He told me that he thought his transfer would split fairly evenly between the three remaining Unionist candidates, and he was right.

Dodds (DUP) +6,325.66 (24.3%) = 139,791.16
Nicholson (UUP) + 5,628.81 (21.6%) = 92,301.35
Attwood (SDLP) +1,118.53 (4.3%) = 88,147.36
Allister (TUV) +7,372 (28.3%) = 84,437.58
Lo (Alliance) + 1,392.85 (5.4%) = 55,346.65

4,179.51 (16.1%) non-transferable

Sixth Count

Not hugely astonishing that Reilly's transfers failed to pull Lo ahead of Allister, so she was eliminated.

Dodds (DUP) + 3,218.37 (5.8%) = 143,009.53
Attwood (SDLP) + 24,675.48 (44.6%) = 112,822.84
Nicholson (UUP) +6,959.22 (12.6%) = 99,260.57
Allister (TUV) +1,582.78 (2.9%) = 86,020.36

18,910.8 (34.2%) non-transferable

Seventh Count

At this point only 13,240 votes separated Allister and Nicholson, which is the closest we have ever come to a European parliament seat shifting outside the big four parties. However, Allister still lost.

Dodds (DUP) +36,293.00 (42.2%) = 179,302.53
Nicholson (UUP) +36,733.17 (42.7%) = 135,993.74
Attwood (SDLP) +2,158.80 (2.5%) = 114,981.64

10,835.39 (12.6%) non-transferable

By a slightly obscure provision of the rules, Dodds was declared elected after only Allister's first preference votes had been examined, and as he'd picked up another 11,000 in the meantime it's quite likely that she would have got more if they had all been counted. She now had a surplus of 22,770.53.

Eighth Count

The percentages given are those of the 36,293 1-Allister 2-Dodds papers as a whole.

Nicholson (UUP)  +22456.04 (83.6%) = 158,449.78
Attwood (SDLP) +296.00 (1.1%) = 115,277.64

The non-transferable figure given is 18.49, but in fact 5,457 (15.0%) of the papers had no preference for either Nicholson or Attwood.

Conclusion

This was the longest European election count ever in Northern Ireland. I was brought in by the BBC to help with live coverage between 2.15pm and 4.15 pm on the Monday; by the time we went off air at 6, there was still no first round result, and the final declaration was just over 24 hours later. I think it was more fun for me than for the candidates.

Parliamentary Groups

No Northern Ireland candidate is affiliated to what is currently the European Parliament's largest group, the European People's Party.

The SDLP are members of the Party of European Socialists, and Attwood will presumably sit with their parliamentary group of Socialists and Democrats if elected.

As far as I know, Alliance are not currently affiliated with the liberal ALDE group, though presumably they would approach Anna Lo to join if she is elected.

Brown will presumably sit with the Green / European Free Alliance group if he is elected.

Nicholson sits as a member of the European Conservatives and Reformers, who also include the UK Conservatives. Brotherston will presumably sit with them also if he wins.

The United European Left/Nordic Green Left group includes Sinn Fein and therefore also Martina Anderson.

Diane Dodds sits as a non-inscrite, as Jim Allister and Ian Paisley were before her.

I have no information about the group intentions of NI21 and TUV, though I would expect the latter to go for non-inscrit again.

Past elections

This graph shows the performances of the main parties in the seven direct elections to the European parliament held so far (fuller details in table below). You can find a summary of the results of the seven most recent NI elections elsewhere and on a different page is a summary of NI election results since 1973.
 

Notes:

• The figure for Alliance in 2004 is in fact the vote share of John Gilliland, who stood as an independent candidate. As well as Alliance, his candidacy was supported by the Workers Party, the Conservatives, Labour groups and other independents.
• Three candidates stood in 1994 supporting independence for NI (though all on slightly different platforms). The most successful was the Rev Hugh Ross who got 1.1%.
• The Workers Party were known as Republican Clubs in 1979.
• The Labour vote given in 1979 is for Paddy Devlin - although David Bleakley, who was also a candidate in that year, is best known as a Labour activist he did not describe himself as such in 1979. In 1989 there were two vying Labour candidates, Mark Langhammer and Brian Caul.
• The Peace Coalition candidate in 1994 was supported by the Greens and Democratic Left.
• The Greens were still the Ecology Party in 1984.

See also:

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

Nicholas Whyte, 11 May 2014