2005 Election Predictions

This is only a summary of the entries I have received. The full data can be found here.

Of the 345 predictions received and processed:

The fifteen seats that most people got right

All 343 saw DUP leader Ian Paisley holding North Antrim.
344 expected the DUP to hold Strangford with one forecasting victory for the UUP.
344 thought SF leader Gerry Adams would hold West Belfast. One saw a UUP gain.
344 thought that SF would hold Mid Ulster with one optimist expecting the SDLP to win.
342 believed that the DUP will hold East Belfast. 3 saw a UUP gain.
341 thought the DUP would hold East Londonderry with 3 predicting a UUP gain and one the SDLP.
338 believed that SF would hold West Tyrone with 5 forecasting victory for independent candidate Kieran Deeny and 2 for the SDLP.
335 thought the DUP would hang on to Lagan Valley though 10 expected the UUP to take back the seat lost by Jeffrey Donaldson's defection.
333 believed that the DUP would hold North Belfast. 12 expected an SF gain.
323 expected SF to take Newry and Armagh with 21 believing the SDLP will hold the seat and one optimist expecting it to go to the DUP.
328 thought SF would hold Fermanagh and South Tyrone with 14 forecasting a DUP gain, 2 forecasting the UUP and one the SDLP to take the seat.
318 forecast the the SDLP would hold South Down but 27 thought it would fall to SF.
304 saw the DUP gaining East Antrim from the UUP, 40 thought the UUP will hold the seat, one optimist thought it will fall to Alliance.
281 thought the UUP will hold North Down; 62 thought the DUP could take it and one each backed Alliance and the Conservatives.
212 expected the DUP to capture Upper Bann with 132 believing that UUP leader David Trimble could hold the seat, and one predicting victory for the Workers Party.

Three seats where a large minority called it correctly but the majority got it wrong:

172 thought the UUP would hold South Antrim with 171 forecasting the DUP gain and two who saw the SDLP coming through the middle.
178 expected Sinn Fein to capture Foyle with 167 believing SDLP leader Mark Durkan would hold the seat.
155 thought the DUP would gain South Belfast; 101 saw an SDLP gain. 84 thought the UUP would hold the seat and 5 optimists saw it falling to SF.

Got them all right:

Glyn Roberts, Andrew Lane, Tom Hagans, Robert Little, Justin Savage, Andrew Dawson, George McDowell, William Dukelow, Darragh Doherty and Roy McGivern called all 18 seats correctly. The winner of the competition will therefore be determined by the accuracy of their local government predictions.

Local council forecasts:
DUP median prediction 159 (mean 159.1, st dev 13.1)
UUP median prediction 129 (mean 128.0, st dev 12.2)
Alliance median prediction 25 (mean 24.9, st dev 4.4)
SDLP median prediction 103 (mean 102.6, st dev 11.0)
SF median prediction 128 (mean 128.9, st dev 12.0)
Others median prediction 40 (mean 38.6, st dev 7.9)

For what it's worth, the predictions of the local council results from those who called the 18 seats right were somewhat different, on average DUP 160.8, UUP 127.9, Alliance 27.4, SDLP 101.5, SF 125.2 and others 39.2, so relatively better news for Alliance and the DUP but less cheerful for the SDLP and Sinn Fein.

Ranked list of all 345 contestants:
18 seats right (10): Glyn Roberts, Andrew Lane, Tom Hagans, Robert Little, Justin Savage, Andrew Dawson, George McDowell, William Dukelow, Darragh Doherty and Roy McGivern.
17 seats right (55): Neal Flanagan, Patrick McWilliams, Sean Fear, Patrick Davidson, Paddy Matthews, Simon Keal, Harry Hayfield, Duncan Shipley Dalton, Mark Ovens, Liam Browne, Niklas Nordblad, Kim Morton, Alan McCrum, Robert Adair, William McGowan, Inaki O'Kelly, Giles Doherty, Keith Mill, Rory Bradley, Richard McBride, Paul Givan, Paul Rodgers, Michael Paul McAlonan, Duran O'Dwyer, Arthur Pedlow, John Gorman, Michael Forsythe, Conor Keelan, Timothy Johnston, Mark McDonald, Karl McLean, Michael Moriarty, Declan McCartan, Timothy Cairns, Jen Houston, Ian Jones, Brett Lockhart, Mark Conroy, Shane Reynolds, Simon Hamilton, Kerri Dunn, Stephen Briggs, Sean Lynch, Graham Thompson, Kieran Rankin, Robert Molloy, John Hone, Robert Johnston, Liam O Brien , Mike Stevenson, John Cook, Pete Whitcroft, John Eltham, Paul Mitchell and Brian Kernohan.
16 seats right (100): Daithi McKay, Liam Quinn, Dáithí Murray, Daithí Mac an Bhaird, Jake Nichols, Andrew McCreery, Jo Devlin, Paul Young, Ross Smith, Michael O Reilly, Scott Garfield, Andrew Muir, Tom Griffin, Des Murray, John Camberwell, Joe Swaile, Jim Lane, James Sherry, John Doherty, Mark Russell, Sean O'Dhaibhidh, Sheila Jones, Liam Boyle, Enda Johnson, Harry Smith, Tim Roll-Pickering, Gavin Adams, Sharon Little, Daniel Hamilton, Paul Linehan, Keith G. Jacques, David McCarthy, Ian McCavery, Ciaran Quinn, Liam Costello, Roar Madsen, Vince O'Flynn, Robert Todd, Thomas Sloane, Damian McGenity, Maimie Ireland, Stephen Farry, Gerard Lockhart, Jack Kennedy, Bobby Molloy, Joe Mackle, Brendan Giffen, Kevin Larkin, Paul Paynter, Alan Roulston, Jim Murray, Declan Nelis, John Finlay, Daryl McLean, Paulo Alexandre Rocha, Trevor Birney, Terry McQueen, Jonathan Moore, John O'Neill, Stephen Martin, William Kenny, Ian Parsley, Mark McLean, David Boothroyd, Hugh Mc Keown, Ciaran Barnes, David McCormick, Peter Smyth, Eugene McDermott, Joanne McCreery, Conal Kelly, Mairia Cahill, Clive McFarland, Stuart Allan, Ivo Damkat, Ben Walker, Gary McKeown, Séamus Millen, Tom Nolan, Patrick Doris, Pat Murphy, Carlo Maria Pellizzi, Aengus O'Malley, Stephen Tonge, Mick Dorgan, Will Hazleton, Paul McKee, George Burns, John Mac Canna, Alan Warren, Ryan Wilson, Andrew McBride, James Dolan, Noel McAdam, Bernie Moynihan, Richard Bullick, Seán McGinley, Paul Sullivan, Philip Allister and John Greer .
15 seats right (93):John Sheridan, Kevin Breslin, Doreen Thompson, Martha Davison, John Gamble, Alan Houston, Olibhear MacTadhg, Conor Heaney, Charles Lamberton, Christopher Montgomery, Earl Haig, David Brewster, Denver Kelly, Peter Bell, Seamus O'Connor, Samuel Johnston, Nicholas Whyte, David Timson, Tim Smith, Karl McLean, Andrew Charles, Gavin Nixon, Chris Daigle, Jenny Muir, Brenda Gervin, John Meehan, Paul McCoy, Tadhg O Croinin, Robert Huey, Martin Moore, Colm Mooney, Trevor McCoy, Ian Forsythe, Stephen Farley, Brian Calvert, Cormac Duignan, Paul Browne, Kevin Lamoreau, Trevor Clarke, Tim Brassil, Craig Dennison, James McMordie, David Stewart, Ken Griffin, Martin Nelis, Brendan Mulgrew, Conor Gilmer, Rob Stead , Darcy Napier, Chris Gaskin, Colin McIlheney, Graham Pointer, Eamonn McAvinney, Grant McGill, Jim Andrews, Marc McKinlay, Darren Mc Daid, Robert Uprichard, John Conway, Ian McClung, Gerry Lynch, John Mooney, Kieran McPeake, Dr John Coulter, Anthony Watson, Michael Kilduff, Mark McGregor, Mark McCullagh, Tarlach Mac Niallais, Jayne Craig, Cyril Donnan, Bill Smith, Eunan Lindsay, Rowland Trimble, Mark McLernon, Shane Hughes, Conor McGinn, Michael Kennedy, Paddy Savage, Alan Reavie, Declan Quinn, Eoin Adams, Rory OKane, Mark Bailey, Michael McElwaine, John Hiddleston, David Lennox, Jonathan Priestley, D.J.Moore, Steve Ferson, Michael Devine, Stan Harper and Anthony Kenneally.
14 seats right (53): Joshua Holman, Aodhan Mac an tSaoir, Sunil Prasannan, Donal O' Driscoll, George Armstrong, David Cather, Stephen Boyd, Stephen Nicoll, Anita Cavlan, Jayne Dunlop, Alan Sheeran, David Polley, Stephen Polley, Tony Geraghty, Conor Donnelly, David Steers, Stuart McTaggart, Adrian Kavanagh, James Alexander, Kieran Pritchard, Sean Healy, Alison Brooker, Gerard Cooper, Damian Bannon, Brian Keane, William Starret, William ó Coill, Stephen Mullan, Gareth Holmes, Matthew Quinton, Eamonn Ó hAodha, Gary McMurray, Ian McClure, Patrick McCabe, Joel Barton, Paul Irwin, Johnny Walker, Gavin Robinson, Ciaran Crossey, Jason Greenwood, Cai Larsen, Tony Lynch, Pol Mc Enri, Fergal Quinn, Concubhar Ó Liatháin , Aleksandar Ristic, Mark Wilson, Keith Kerrigan, Hazlett Lynch, Seamus Mc Bride, Paddy Concannon, Thomas McCullough and Neil McMurray.
13 seats right (17): Theresa McComb, Jonathan McCullough, Adam Gray, David Smyth, Eamonn Smyth, Caitlin Pritchard, David McKeag, Derek Reaney, Niall Waters, Kevin O'Driscoll, Bernie Heery, Declan O'Farrell, Louise Ni Osain, Colm O'Dulachain, Killian Forde, Peter Scott and Robert Ferris.
12 seats right (13): Ned Cohen, Mary Ellen Campbell, Brendan Ferron, Rory Campbell, Gerry Mac Lochlainn, David Christopher, Tom Shelley, Jimmy Murphy, John Shaw, John MacLean, John McMullan, Dewi Harries and Paul Kavanagh.
11 seats right (3): Kathryn Lindsay, Rick Hunter and Paul Wignell.
10 seats right(1): Lloyd O' Farrell

Entries not counted for various reasons:
Submitted after deadline:
No reason (or no good reason) given for anonymity request: Alastair Ross Andrew Dawson #2 Sean McKee Chris Donnelly Colin Surgenor Conor Foley David Wright James Cox John Mooney #1 Wesley/Alison/Lisa Browne Paddy Lynn Paddy McDaid Patrick McGuigan Sean Brolly Thomas William Hogg
Email address invalid: Bernie Boyle/McTaggart Claire Counaghan Dave Black Kevin Watters Luke M R Bell
Full name not given: "deaglanb" "Kate" dmarshall "Murphy" "Jonmilar" J Brennan P Killen "Phil"

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Nicholas Whyte, 21 April 2005

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