2004 European election Predictions

The 173 predictions received for the 2004 European elections in Northern Ireland were:
168 expected the DUP to win a seat; 155 expected SF to win a seat; and 146 expected the UUP to win a seat. 130 contestants correctly predicted all three winners. Their results are ranked below by average error in the predicted vote share of each party, with the four large parties given twice the weight of the three smaller ones.
(Of the other entrants, 33 expected the SDLP to win a seat; 11 expected the independent candidate John Gilliland to win a seat; 3 expected the Green Party to win a seat and 3 expected the Socialist Environmental Alliance to win a seat. They are analysed in greater detail at the end of the page.)

Frank Goddard predicted vote shares DUP 29.7%, SF 26.8%, UUP 18.7%, SDLP 15.8%, SEA 1.3%, Green 0.7%, and Independent 7%. With an average weighted deviation per party from the real result of 0.9%, he wins handsomely.

In second place is Nicholas Whyte who predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 27%, UUP 18%, SDLP 15%, SEA 2.5%, Green 1.5%, and Independent 6%. If only I'd had the sense to nudge the DUP up 2% and the UUP and SEA down by 1% each! My weighted average deviation was 1.0%.

3 Robert Molloy predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 27%, UUP 17%, SDLP 16%, SEA 4%, Green 1%, and Independent 7%; weighted average deviation 1.19%.
4 Jim Lane predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 28%, UUP 16.5%, SDLP 16%, SEA 3.5%, Green 2%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 1.29%.
5 Tim Smith predicted vote shares DUP 32%, SF 28%, UUP 18%, SDLP 16%, SEA 3%, Green 2%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 1.31%.
6 Christopher Stalford predicted vote shares DUP 30.5%, SF 26%, UUP 20.5%, SDLP 16%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 1.33%.
7 Glyn Roberts predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 26%, UUP 19%, SDLP 17%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 7%; weighted average deviation 1.34%.
8 John Mac Canna predicted vote shares DUP 32%, SF 28%, UUP 16%, SDLP 16%, SEA 5%, Green 2%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 1.34%.
9 John Finlay predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 25%, UUP 19%, SDLP 16%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 8%; weighted average deviation 1.4%.
10 Tim Roll-Pickering predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 27%, UUP 20%, SDLP 15%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 1.4%.
11 Mark Bailey predicted vote shares DUP 31%, SF 26%, UUP 21%, SDLP 15%, SEA 0.5%, Green 0.5%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 1.41%.
12 Mick Dorgan predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 26%, UUP 20%, SDLP 17%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 1.45%.
13 Tim Cairns predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 27%, UUP 20.5%, SDLP 16%, SEA 1.5%, Green 1%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 1.56%.
14 Colm Mooney predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 26%, UUP 18%, SDLP 19%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 1.6%.
15 David Speers predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 28%, UUP 20%, SDLP 15%, SEA 1.6%, Green 0.4%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 1.65%.
16 Theresa McComb predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 28%, UUP 16.5%, SDLP 14.5%, SEA 3%, Green 1%, and Independent 9%; weighted average deviation 1.66%.
17 Rory Bradley predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 26%, UUP 18%, SDLP 19%, SEA 3%, Green 1%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 1.69%.
18 Allan Leonard predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 25%, UUP 17%, SDLP 15%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 12%; weighted average deviation 1.74%.
19 Richard Bullick predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 27%, UUP 21%, SDLP 16%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 1.76%.
20 Neil Lindsay predicted vote shares DUP 27.2%, SF 26.2%, UUP 18.2%, SDLP 18%, SEA 2.4%, Green 2%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 1.78%.
21 Charles Lamberton predicted vote shares DUP 31%, SF 26%, UUP 21%, SDLP 14.5%, SEA 2.5%, Green 2%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 1.81%.
22 Simon Hamilton predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 26%, UUP 20%, SDLP 18%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 1.81%.
23 Will Hazleton predicted vote shares DUP 28.5%, SF 26%, UUP 19%, SDLP 19%, SEA 1%, Green 0.5%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 1.84%.
24 Daniel Hamilton predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 25%, UUP 21%, SDLP 15%, SEA 2%, Green 2%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 1.85%.
25 Clive McFarland predicted vote shares DUP 30.5%, SF 27%, UUP 22%, SDLP 15%, SEA 1.5%, Green 1%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 1.9%.
=26 Tim Grant predicted vote shares DUP 33%, SF 28.5%, UUP 18%, SDLP 12.5%, SEA 2.5%, Green 2%, and Independent 3.5%; weighted average deviation 1.92%.
=26 Gerry Lynch predicted vote shares DUP 34%, SF 27%, UUP 17%, SDLP 11%, SEA 4%, Green 2%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 1.92%.
28 Adrian Kavanagh predicted vote shares DUP 30.3%, SF 27.3%, UUP 20.8%, SDLP 16.2%, SEA 1.7%, Green 2.5%, and Independent 1.2%; weighted average deviation 1.94%.
29 Sean Healy predicted vote shares DUP 31%, SF 26%, UUP 23%, SDLP 16%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 1.96%.
30 Peter Smyth predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 27%, UUP 20%, SDLP 18%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 1.97%.
31 Mark McLean predicted vote shares DUP 27.5%, SF 25.5%, UUP 20.5%, SDLP 17%, SEA 2%, Green 1.5%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 2.01%.
32 Patrick Doris predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 25.9%, UUP 17.6%, SDLP 18.2%, SEA 3.8%, Green 1.3%, and Independent 7.2%; weighted average deviation 2.05%.
33 Alan Reavie predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 23%, UUP 17%, SDLP 21%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 2.06%.
34 Sharon Little predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 24%, UUP 17%, SDLP 20%, SEA 2.5%, Green 2.5%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 2.06%.
35 William Forster predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 26%, UUP 20%, SDLP 17.5%, SEA 2%, Green 3%, and Independent 2.5%; weighted average deviation 2.1%.
36 Eunan Lindsay predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 28%, UUP 20%, SDLP 17%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 2.12%.
37 Joshua Holman predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 25%, UUP 16%, SDLP 12%, SEA 5%, Green 2%, and Independent 10%; weighted average deviation 2.14%.
38 Martin Kowalski predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 25%, UUP 19%, SDLP 18%, SEA 2%, Green 3%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.15%.
39 Matthew Quinton predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 26%, UUP 23%, SDLP 16%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.15%.
39 Peter Bell predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 25%, UUP 20%, SDLP 17%, SEA 2%, Green 4%, and Independent 2%; weighted average deviation 2.15%.
41 David Timson predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 24%, UUP 19%, SDLP 17%, SEA 1%, Green 2%, and Independent 9%; weighted average deviation 2.16%.
42 Robert Mann predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 27%, UUP 19%, SDLP 14%, SEA 3%, Green 1%, and Independent 9%; weighted average deviation 2.17%.
=43 Stephen Nicholl predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 26%, UUP 22%, SDLP 17%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.18%.
=43 Sean Fear predicted vote shares DUP 31%, SF 26%, UUP 23%, SDLP 17%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 2.18%.
45 Sean Ryan predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 24%, UUP 20.5%, SDLP 16%, SEA 3.5%, Green 2%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 2.19%.
46 Mark Russell predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 27%, UUP 21%, SDLP 18%, SEA 0.5%, Green 0.5%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 2.22%.
47 Christopher Daigle predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 26%, UUP 21%, SDLP 17%, SEA 2%, Green 2%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.24%.
48 Jim Murray predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 27.5%, UUP 20%, SDLP 15%, SEA 2%, Green 3%, and Independent 5.5%; weighted average deviation 2.24%.
49 Séamus O'Connor predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 26%, UUP 22%, SDLP 15%, SEA 3%, Green 2%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.31%.
50 Carlo Mria Pellizzi predicted vote shares DUP 31%, SF 28%, UUP 19.5%, SDLP 12.5%, SEA 1.5%, Green 4.5%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.31%.
51 Joe Devlin predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 25%, UUP 19%, SDLP 16%, SEA 4%, Green 5%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.33%.
52 Paul Browne predicted vote shares DUP 30.5%, SF 29.8%, UUP 20.5%, SDLP 15%, SEA 2.2%, Green 0.5%, and Independent 1.5%; weighted average deviation 2.33%.
53 William O Coill predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 26%, UUP 24%, SDLP 15%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.34%.
54 Philip Vial predicted vote shares DUP 25%, SF 26%, UUP 18%, SDLP 17%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 12%; weighted average deviation 2.34%.
55 Steven Elder predicted vote shares DUP 31%, SF 28%, UUP 22%, SDLP 13%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.37%.
=56 Tom Nolan predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 25%, UUP 21%, SDLP 16%, SEA 4%, Green 2%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.42%.
=56 Patrick Savage predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 26%, UUP 22%, SDLP 16%, SEA 3%, Green 2%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 2.42%.
58 Eugene McDermott predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 24%, UUP 22%, SDLP 18%, SEA 0.6%, Green 0.7%, and Independent 4.7%; weighted average deviation 2.43%.
59 Graham Pointer predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 23%, UUP 20%, SDLP 16%, SEA 1%, Green 2%, and Independent 10%; weighted average deviation 2.43%.
=60 Liam Costello predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 26%, UUP 24%, SDLP 16%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.51%.
=60 Chris Donnelly predicted vote shares DUP 27.7%, SF 25.5%, UUP 20.3%, SDLP 18.5%, SEA 2.4%, Green 2%, and Independent 3.6%; weighted average deviation 2.51%.
=60 Barry Flynn predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 24%, UUP 20%, SDLP 17%, SEA 4%, Green 2%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 2.51%.
63 Stiofan Long predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 25%, UUP 20%, SDLP 15%, SEA 5%, Green 2%, and Independent 7%; weighted average deviation 2.56%.
64 Paul Givan predicted vote shares DUP 28.5%, SF 24%, UUP 22%, SDLP 18%, SEA 1%, Green 0.5%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 2.56%.
65 Pat McLarnon predicted vote shares DUP 27.8%, SF 25.2%, UUP 22.4%, SDLP 16.5%, SEA 2.4%, Green 2.1%, and Independent 3.6%; weighted average deviation 2.57%.
66 David Brewster predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 25%, UUP 19%, SDLP 21%, SEA 2%, Green , and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.58%.
=67 Matt Treacy predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 26%, UUP 22%, SDLP 15%, SEA 3%, Green 3%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.58%.
=67 Martin Nelis predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 26%, UUP 23%, SDLP 15%, SEA 3%, Green 1%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.58%.
69 Andrew Lane predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 25%, UUP 21%, SDLP 17%, SEA 5%, Green 1%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 2.6%.
70 Liam Quinn predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 22%, UUP 16%, SDLP 18%, SEA 2%, Green 4%, and Independent 10%; weighted average deviation 2.62%.
71 Ciaran Crowley predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 26.5%, UUP 22%, SDLP 16%, SEA 4.5%, Green 1%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 2.62%.
72 Gary McMurray predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 26%, UUP 22%, SDLP 18%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 2.63%.
73 William McGowan predicted vote shares DUP 27.3%, SF 25.2%, UUP 19.8%, SDLP 19.1%, SEA 2.9%, Green 1.7%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 2.64%.
74 Daithí Mac An Bhaird predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 24%, UUP 21%, SDLP 17%, SEA 4%, Green 3%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 2.69%.
75 Ciaran Lannin predicted vote shares DUP 27.2%, SF 24.3%, UUP 21.4%, SDLP 17.5%, SEA 2.5%, Green 2.1%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.73%.
76 Michael O'Reilly predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 26%, UUP 23%, SDLP 18%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 2%; weighted average deviation 2.78%.
=77 Tony Fearon predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 27%, UUP 21%, SDLP 20%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 2.79%.
=77 Peter Quinn predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 27%, UUP 21%, SDLP 20%, SEA 1.5%, Green 1%, and Independent 0.5%; weighted average deviation 2.79%.
79 Ciaran Barnes predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 24%, UUP 21%, SDLP 18%, SEA 3%, Green 2%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.87%.
80 Richard Hall predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 24%, UUP 23%, SDLP 17%, SEA 3%, Green 2%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 2.87%.
81 Samuel Kerrigan predicted vote shares DUP 27.1%, SF 26.1%, UUP 21%, SDLP 20.4%, SEA 0.4%, Green 0.9%, and Independent 4.1%; weighted average deviation 2.89%.
=82 Daithí McKay predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 27%, UUP 24%, SDLP 17%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 2.94%.
=82 Cormac O'Donnell predicted vote shares DUP 25%, SF 26.8%, UUP 21.7%, SDLP 18.5%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.94%.
84 George Burns predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 25%, UUP 22%, SDLP 20%, SEA 2%, Green 0.8%, and Independent 0.2%; weighted average deviation 2.94%.
85 Iñaki O'Kelly predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 25%, UUP 21%, SDLP 19%, SEA 2%, Green 2%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 2.96%.
86 Alan Gallagher predicted vote shares DUP 25%, SF 24%, UUP 19%, SDLP 17%, SEA 7.5%, Green 1.5%, and Independent 6%; weighted average deviation 2.96%.
87 Sunil Prasannan predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 25%, UUP 23%, SDLP 18%, SEA 1%, Green 2%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 3%.
88 Keith Mills predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 24.5%, UUP 24.4%, SDLP 17%, SEA 1%, Green 1.3%, and Independent 3.8%; weighted average deviation 3.02%.
89 David Boothroyd predicted vote shares DUP 27.5%, SF 22%, UUP 22.5%, SDLP 17%, SEA 2%, Green 2%, and Independent 7%; weighted average deviation 3.04%.
90 Jon Boyle predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 24%, UUP 21%, SDLP 19%, SEA 3%, Green 2%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 3.06%.
91 Brian Calvert predicted vote shares DUP 30%, SF 24.3%, UUP 21%, SDLP 21.5%, SEA 0.9%, Green 0.1%, and Independent 2.2%; weighted average deviation 3.08%.
92 A.D. Steers predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 22.6%, UUP 20.4%, SDLP 20.3%, SEA 2.1%, Green 0.9%, and Independent 6.7%; weighted average deviation 3.12%.
93 Ned Cohen predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 27%, UUP 22%, SDLP 19%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 3.12%.
94 Tom Griffin predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 24%, UUP 23%, SDLP 16%, SEA 3%, Green 3%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 3.15%.
95 Gerry MacLochlainn predicted vote shares DUP 24%, SF 25%, UUP 18%, SDLP 14%, SEA 2%, Green 5%, and Independent 12%; weighted average deviation 3.2%.
96 Conor McGinn predicted vote shares DUP 24%, SF 24%, UUP 19%, SDLP 18%, SEA 3%, Green 3%, and Independent 9%; weighted average deviation 3.22%.
97 Mary Ellen Campbell predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 23%, UUP 21%, SDLP 17%, SEA 4%, Green 4%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 3.24%.
98 Michael Stevenson predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 23%, UUP 24%, SDLP 18%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 3.33%.
99 Paul McAlonan predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 25%, UUP 22%, SDLP 20%, SEA 2%, Green 1%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 3.33%.
100 John Hone predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 24%, UUP 22.5%, SDLP 20.5%, SEA 0.5%, Green 0.5%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 3.34%.
101 Kieran McPeake predicted vote shares DUP 26.1%, SF 24.9%, UUP 25%, SDLP 17%, SEA 1.5%, Green 1.6%, and Independent 3.9%; weighted average deviation 3.38%.
102 Oisin Kelly predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 25%, UUP 24%, SDLP 16%, SEA 3%, Green 4%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 3.42%.
103 Brenda Gervin predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 24%, UUP 22%, SDLP 20%, SEA 1.5%, Green 2%, and Independent 3.5%; weighted average deviation 3.45%.
104 Patrick McCabe predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 22%, UUP 20%, SDLP 20%, SEA 4%, Green 3%, and Independent 2%; weighted average deviation 3.51%.
105 Colin McIlheney predicted vote shares DUP 29%, SF 24%, UUP 23%, SDLP 20%, SEA 1%, Green 2%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 3.54%.
106 Patrick McWilliams predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 27%, UUP 25.5%, SDLP 18%, SEA 0.49%, Green 1%, and Independent 0.01%; weighted average deviation 3.56%.
107 Dave Besag predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 25%, UUP 23%, SDLP 21%, SEA 1%, Green 1%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 3.63%.
=108 Samuel Johnston predicted vote shares DUP 25%, SF 22%, UUP 20%, SDLP 15%, SEA 5%, Green 3%, and Independent 10%; weighted average deviation 3.65%.
=108 Andrew Charles predicted vote shares DUP 25%, SF 21%, UUP 17%, SDLP 15%, SEA 8%, Green 2%, and Independent 12%; weighted average deviation 3.65%.
110 Terry McQueen predicted vote shares DUP 24.2%, SF 24.8%, UUP 22.1%, SDLP 18.7%, SEA 3.4%, Green 2.3%, and Independent 4.5%; weighted average deviation 3.67%.
111 Roy McGivern predicted vote shares DUP 26.4%, SF 23.2%, UUP 21.4%, SDLP 20.9%, SEA 2.5%, Green 1.5%, and Independent 4.1%; weighted average deviation 3.72%.
112 Conor Ryan predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 22%, UUP 21%, SDLP 18%, SEA 5%, Green 4%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 3.78%.
113 Niklas Nordblad predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 24%, UUP 22%, SDLP 21%, SEA 2%, Green 2%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 3.87%.
114 Enda Johnson predicted vote shares DUP 22.5%, SF 23.5%, UUP 21%, SDLP 18%, SEA 3%, Green 5%, and Independent 7%; weighted average deviation 3.95%.
115 Paul McCoy predicted vote shares DUP 26.67%, SF 27.81%, UUP 24.35%, SDLP 19.14%, SEA 0.7%, Green 1.31%, and Independent 0.02%; weighted average deviation 3.96%.
116 Vincent Treanor predicted vote shares DUP 25%, SF 22%, UUP 21%, SDLP 18%, SEA 7%, Green 2%, and Independent 5%; weighted average deviation 3.96%.
117 Gordon Woods predicted vote shares DUP 38%, SF 32%, UUP 16%, SDLP 10%, SEA 1%, Green 2%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 3.99%.
118 Paul Linehan predicted vote shares DUP 24%, SF 24%, UUP 21%, SDLP 19.5%, SEA 4%, Green 3.5%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 4.01%.
119 Kevin Breslin predicted vote shares DUP 24%, SF 21%, UUP 19%, SDLP 18%, SEA 4%, Green 2%, and Independent 12%; weighted average deviation 4.04%.
120 Saoirse O Ceallaigh predicted vote shares DUP 23%, SF 24%, UUP 20%, SDLP 18%, SEA 10%, Green 1%, and Independent 4%; weighted average deviation 4.06%.
121 Giles Doherty predicted vote shares DUP 23.1%, SF 24%, UUP 23.3%, SDLP 18%, SEA 1%, Green 0.3%, and Independent 10.3%; weighted average deviation 4.08%.
122 Paulo Alexandre Rocha predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 25%, UUP 24%, SDLP 21%, SEA , Green 2%, and Independent ; weighted average deviation 4.09%.
123 Gus MacNamara predicted vote shares DUP 27%, SF 23%, UUP 25%, SDLP 18%, SEA 5%, Green 1%, and Independent 1%; weighted average deviation 4.24%.
124 Stan Harper predicted vote shares DUP 26.8%, SF 21.7%, UUP 25.7%, SDLP 19.2%, SEA 1.9%, Green 0.8%, and Independent 3.9%; weighted average deviation 4.31%.
125 John McIlveen predicted vote shares DUP 26%, SF 23%, UUP 22%, SDLP 21%, SEA 4%, Green 2%, and Independent 2%; weighted average deviation 4.33%.
125 Nik Warrensson predicted vote shares DUP 22%, SF 25%, UUP 21%, SDLP 18%, SEA 2%, Green 9%, and Independent 3%; weighted average deviation 4.33%.
125 Colin Fox predicted vote shares DUP 28%, SF 22%, UUP 23%, SDLP 20%, SEA 5.5%, Green 1%, and Independent 0.5%; weighted average deviation 4.33%.
128 Michael Shilliday predicted vote shares DUP 25%, SF 20%, UUP 22%, SDLP 19%, SEA 2%, Green 2%, and Independent 10%; weighted average deviation 4.4%.
129 Seamus Friel predicted vote shares DUP 23.1%, SF 25.6%, UUP 25.4%, SDLP 19.4%, SEA 0.8%, Green 2.1%, and Independent 3.6%; weighted average deviation 4.44%.
130 David Spence predicted vote shares DUP 35%, SF 35%, UUP 30%, SDLP 0%, SEA 0%, Green 0%, and Independent 0%; weighted average deviation 8.29%.

43 people predicted the winners of the seats incorrectly.
14 (Justin McCamphill, Liam O Brien, Michael Moriarty, David McCormick, Shane Reynolds, Joseph Lockhart, Seamus Friel, Ali Ahmed, Eamonn O hAodha, Goretti Horgan, Mark McGregor, Nicola Graham, Andrew Dawson and Maria Hoeritzauer) expected the SDLP rather than the UUP to win the third seat.
13 (Ciaran Quinn, James Campbell, Thomas O'Hanlon, Robert Little, Andy Bowser, John Sheridan, Liam Boyle, Martin Rodgers, Dave McCullough, Benny Mathews, Ciara Leonard,Tez Burke and Tony Comer) expected the SDLP rather than SF to win the nationalist seat.
7 (Criostoir O Fachtna, Cai Larsen, David Ford, Thomas McCloskey, Sean Trainor, Roderick Cobley and Michael Maguire) expected independent candidate John Gilliland to win the UUP seat.
2 (Jules Rameses and Andrew Muir) expected the combination of DUP SDLP and Gilliland.
2 (Robert Kouakou and Andrew Murphy) expected the improbable combination of SDLP SEA and Green Party.
five other unique (and inaccurate) combinations were predicted by one contestant each: DUP SF and Green (Pete Whitcroft); DUP SF and SEA (Sophii Ranchez); SF UUP and Independent (Liam Doherty); SF UUP and SDLP (Kevin Lamoureau); and UUP SDLP and Independent (Rob Brettle).

The Prediction Contests: 2004 | 2003 | 2001 | 20 | 1999 | 1998

See also:The constituencies | Single Transferable Vote | The political parties | The Jenkins Report | 1998 Assembly election | 1998 candidates | Useful books and links

Results from 1996 to 2001 for each seat:East Belfast | North Belfast | South Belfast | West Belfast | East Antrim | North Antrim | South Antrim | North Down | South Down | Fermanagh and South Tyrone | Foyle | Lagan Valley | East Londonderry | Mid Ulster | Newry and Armagh | Strangford | West Tyrone | Upper Bann

Surveys of each recent election: 2004 European | 2003 Assembly | 2001 Westminster | 2001 local govt | 20 S Antrim | 1999 European | 1998 Assembly | 1997 local govt | 1997 Westminster | 1996 Forum | 1995 N Down | 1994 European | 1993 local govt | 1992 Westminster | 1989 European | 1989 local govt | 1987 Westminster | 1986 by-elections | 1985 local govt | 1984 European | 1983 Westminster | 1982 Assembly | 1981 local govt | 1979 European | 1979 Westminster | 1977 local govt | 1975 Convention | Oct 1974 Westminster | Feb 1974 Westminster | 1973 Assembly | 1973 local govt | Summary of all Northern Ireland elections since 1973 | Brief summary of election results 1997-2003

Historical pieces:Westminster elections 1885-1910 | The 1918 election | Dáil elections since 1918 | Westminster elections since 1920 | Senate of Southern Ireland 1921 | Irish Senate elections in 1925 | Northern Ireland House of Commons | Northern Ireland Senate |

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Front page | Site Map | Notes and Queries | Updates Mailing List | About this site

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

Nicholas Whyte, 14 May 2004; last updated Monday, June 14, 2004 22:26:33