1999 European election Predictions

In the run-up to the 1999 European elections I invited predictions of the results. Five people picked up the challenge and I added my own predictions as well.
 
Actual Result Gerry Lynch Tom McVey Patrick Matthews Keith Mills Ciaran Quinn Nicholas Whyte
DUP 28.4% 25% 25% 25.4% 25% 24% 25%
SDLP 28.1% 25% 29% 28.6% 27% 26% 29%
UUP 17.6% 19% 19% 16.8% 18% 17% 14%
SF 17.3% 18% 16% 14% 14% 14% 14%
PUP 3.3% 3% 2% 3.8% 3% 4% 7%
UKUP 3.0% 5% 5% 6.7% 7% 8% 7%
Alliance 2.1% 5% 4% 4.5% 6% 7% 4%
Nat Law 0.14% 0% 0% 0.2% 0% 0% 0%

Everyone underestimated the DUP; everyone but Gerry Lynch underestimated SF's performance. On the other hand the poor performance of both the UKUP and Alliance was unanticipated. Patrick Matthews, whose predictions came with an extra decimal point of precision, was the only person to score three "closest hits" on his own. Gerry Lynch shared two of his three "closest hits", but overall his predictions were nearer the mark than Patrick's (average error of 1.73% rather than 1.79%). Both however were beaten by Tom McVey, whose predictions had an average error of only 1.54%. Congratulations to Tom.


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Nicholas Whyte, 18 May 1999; modified 19 July 2001


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