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| Actual Result | Gerry Lynch | Tom McVey | Patrick Matthews | Keith Mills | Ciaran Quinn | Nicholas Whyte | |
| DUP | 28.4% | 25% | 25% | 25.4% | 25% | 24% | 25% |
| SDLP | 28.1% | 25% | 29% | 28.6% | 27% | 26% | 29% |
| UUP | 17.6% | 19% | 19% | 16.8% | 18% | 17% | 14% |
| SF | 17.3% | 18% | 16% | 14% | 14% | 14% | 14% |
| PUP | 3.3% | 3% | 2% | 3.8% | 3% | 4% | 7% |
| UKUP | 3.0% | 5% | 5% | 6.7% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
| Alliance | 2.1% | 5% | 4% | 4.5% | 6% | 7% | 4% |
| Nat Law | 0.14% | 0% | 0% | 0.2% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Everyone underestimated the DUP; everyone but Gerry Lynch underestimated SF's performance. On the other hand the poor performance of both the UKUP and Alliance was unanticipated. Patrick Matthews, whose predictions came with an extra decimal point of precision, was the only person to score three "closest hits" on his own. Gerry Lynch shared two of his three "closest hits", but overall his predictions were nearer the mark than Patrick's (average error of 1.73% rather than 1.79%). Both however were beaten by Tom McVey, whose predictions had an average error of only 1.54%. Congratulations to Tom.
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Surveys of each recent election: 2004 European | 2003 Assembly | 2001 Westminster | 2001 local govt | 2000 S Antrim | 1999 European | 1998 Assembly | 1997 local govt | 1997 Westminster | 1996 Forum | 1995 N Down | 1994 European | 1993 local govt | 1992 Westminster | 1989 European | 1989 local govt | 1987 Westminster | 1986 by-elections | 1985 local govt | 1984 European | 1983 Westminster | 1982 Assembly | 1981 local govt | 1979 European | 1979 Westminster | 1977 local govt | 1975 Convention | Oct 1974 Westminster | Feb 1974 Westminster | 1973 Assembly | 1973 local govt | Summary of all Northern Ireland elections since 1973 | Brief summary of election results 1997-2003
Historical pieces: Westminster elections 1885-1910 | The 1918 election | Dáil elections since 1918 | Westminster elections since 1920 | Senate of Southern Ireland 1921 | Irish Senate elections in 1925 | Northern Ireland House of Commons | Northern Ireland Senate
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Nicholas Whyte, 18 May 1999; modified 19 July 2001
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Nicholas Whyte 1998-2004 Last Updated on Wednesday, 12-Jan-2005 12:12
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