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I received 131 acceptably submitted sets of predictions for the Westminster contest before the close of polls; congratulations to Cai Larsen, Seth Speirs, Killian Forde and Tom Nolan who all accurately predicted the winner of all 18 Westminster seats. Of the four, Cai Larsen also got closest to the result of the local elections, and so wins the prize, a copy of Sydney Elliott and W.D. Flackes' "Northern Ireland: A Political Directory". For accurately predicting the results of the local elections alone, Paul Linehan offered a prize of ten pounds (Irish); this was won by Conal Gillespie, to whom also congratulations.
Ranking the 18 seats by the degree of unanimity reveals that the majority of all punters got 13 seats right and 5 wrong:
EB NB SB WB EA NA SA ND SD FST Foy LV ELy MU N&A Str WT UB
Cai Larsen 18 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Seth Speirs 18 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Tom Nolan 18 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Killian Forde 18 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
John Sweeney 17 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * UUP *
Clive McFarland 17 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * UUP *
Tom Barry 17 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SF * * *
Ciaran Crowley 17 * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SF * * *
Criostoir MacMaghnais 17 * * * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * * *
Mark McLean 17 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * * *
Shane Hughes 17 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * * * * * *
Andrew Crawford 17 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * * * * * *
Thomas McCullough 16 * * * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Claire Mitchell 16 * * * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Darragh Doherty 16 * * * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Kevin Kavanagh 16 * * * * * * * * * * * * UUP * SF * * *
Bernard Cantillon 16 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * SDLP *
Timothy Johnston 16 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * SDLP *
Colin McIlheney 16 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Liam O'Brien 16 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Niall Lynch 16 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Alan Daly 16 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
D.J. Moore 16 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Paul Linehan 16 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Greg Wilson 16 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * * * * SDLP *
Jonathan Priestley 16 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * * * * SDLP *
Andrew McCreery 16 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * * * * SDLP *
Giles Doherty 16 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * * * * UUP * *
Nigel Thompson 16 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * * *
Hector Pugh 16 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * * *
Michael Devine 16 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * * *
Richard Bullick 16 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * * * * *
Keith Mills 16 * * * * * * * UKU * UUP * * * * * * * *
Peter King 16 * * * * * * UUP UKU * * * * * * * * * *
Andrew Dawson 16 * * * * UUP * * * * UUP * * * * * * * *
Peter Smyth 16 * * * * UUP * UUP * * * * * * * * * * *
Fergal Keelan 16 * SF * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * * *
Barra Flynn 15 * * * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Ian McClure 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Sean Fear 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Samantha McKelvey 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
John O'Driscoll 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Howard Smith 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Eric Comber 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Michael Fleming 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Derek Mooney 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Damien McGlinchey 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * *
Brendan McDowell 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * *
Brian McFall 15 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * *
Eoin McBennett 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
P Mitchell & B O'Leary 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Conal Gillespie 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Tom Griffin 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Patrick Martin 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Mick Fealty 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Ciarŕn Irvine 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * UUP *
Roger Mac Ginty 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * UUP *
Brian Cahill 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * UUP *
Conor McGinn 15 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * SF * * *
Steven Alexander 15 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * * * SDLP *
Alex Kane 15 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * * * SDLP *
Feargal Cochrane 15 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * * * SDLP *
Mick Dorgan 15 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
John Adams 15 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Anne Cadwallader 15 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Ian James Parsley 15 * * * * * * * UKU * UUP * * * * * * SDLP *
Ray French 15 * * * * * * UUP UKU * * * * UUP * * * * *
Carlo Maria Pellizzi 15 * * * * UUP * UUP UKU * * * * * * * * * *
Robert Little 15 * * * * UUP * UUP UKU * * * * * * * * * *
Duncan Shipley Dalton 15 * * SDLP * * * UUP * * * * * * * * * SDLP *
Cormac Daly 15 * SDLP * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Rory Bradley 15 * SDLP * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * * SDLP
John Mac Canna 15 * SF * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Gerry Carr 15 * SF * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * * * *
Pablo Douglas 15 * UUP * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Kate Fearon 14 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Ciaran Crossey 14 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Conal Kelly 14 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Alex Hanna 14 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Sean Hennessy 14 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Jeff Dudgeon 14 * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP UUP *
Diarmuid Wilson 14 * * * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Mark Russell 14 * * * * * * UUP * * SDLP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Claire Russell 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * * * SDLPDUP
Nicholas Whyte 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * * SF * SDLP *
Bernie Murray 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Allen Watson 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Ivor Peksa 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Finbar Clenaghan 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Declan Butler 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Allan Leonard 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * UUP *
Roisin Conlan 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * UUP *
Paddy Hughes 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * *
Paddy Wilson 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * *
Jim McCoy 14 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * *
Will Fear 14 * * * * * * UUP UKU * * * * * * * * SDLPDUP
Roar Madsen 14 * * * * * * UUP UKU * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Joshua Holman 14 * * * * * * UUP UKU * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Alan Reavie 14 * * * * UUP * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
Ciaran Quinn 14 * * SDLP * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
John McElhinney 14 * SDLPSDLP * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * *
Alan Sheeran 14 * SF * * * * * * * SDLP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Christopher Daigle 14 * SF SDLP * * * * * * * * * UUP * * * UUP *
Colin Bradford 14 * UUP * * * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Richard Barrington 14 * UUP * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * *
Gearóid MacSiacais 14 * UUP * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * * *
David Christopher 14 UUP * * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Martijn Blom 13 * * * * * * UUP * * SDLP * * SF * * UUP UUP *
Ben Macken 13 * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
David Boothroyd 13 * * * * * * UUP UKU * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Anthony Reavey 13 * * * * * * UUP UKU * UUP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Jack Kennedy 13 * * * * * * UUP UKU * UUP * * UUP * * * UUP *
Philip Bogle 13 * * * * * * UUP UKU * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * *
Graham Pointer 13 * SDLP * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Joseph Crilly 13 * SDLP * * * * UUP * * * * * UUP * SF UUP * *
Conor Keelan 13 * SDLP * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * * UUP *
Jimmy Donaghey 13 * SF * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Martin Nelis 13 * SF * * * * UUP UKU * * * * UUP * * UUP * *
Tony McGreevy 13 * UUP * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Rodney Logan 13 * UUP * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
Jim Riley 13 * UUP * * * * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP UUP *
Ben Lowry 13 * UUP * * * * UUP * * SDLP * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Roy McGivern 12 * * * * * * UUP UKU * UUP * * UUP * * UUP UUP *
D Thompson 12 * SDLP A * * * UUP * * Ind * * UUP * * * SDLP *
Sharon McCrea 12 * SDLPSDLP * UUP * UUP * * * SF * * * * * SDLP *
Michael Moriarty 12 * SF SDLP * UUP * UUP * * * * * * * SF * * DUP
William Houston 12 * UUP * * * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP * * UUP UUP *
R McAuley 11 * * * * UUP * UUP UKU * Ind * UUP UUP * * * * DUP
Nick Clarke 11 * * * * UUP * UUP UKU * UUP * * UUP * * * UUP DUP
Jenny Muir 11 * SF SDLP * UUP * UUP * * * * * UUP * * UUP SDLP *
John Michaels 9 A SF SDLP * UUP * UUP * * * SF * * * SF UUP * SDLP
Actual Result 131 154 28 117 108 Conal Gillespie 131 156 30 110 104 Mark McLean 120 157 31 118 108 Conor Keelan 130 150 20 125 110 Carlo Maria Pellizzi 125 142 35 117 108 Gerry Carr 121 151 35 110 111 Criostoir MacMaghnais 111 152 37 116 104 David Boothroyd 122 151 32 122 95 John Adams 125 163 32 114 97 Richard Bullick 120 155 30 115 90 Robert Little 125 148 38 117 87 Duncan Shipley Dalton 120 155 38 130 100 Andrew McCreery 125 152 35 118 81 Sean Fear 120 147 35 110 100 Mark Russell 135 142 37 113 93 Cai Larsen 110 155 35 115 95 Ian James Parsley 115 155 35 120 90 Claire Russell 120 160 40 120 90 Niall Lynch 111 145 28 113 113 Sharon McCrea 120 150 18 138 105 Patrick Martin 121 150 30 130 90 Hector Pugh 120 169 35 115 95 Jonathan Priestley 114 153 32 123 85 Allen Watson 122 167 36 112 92 Nicholas Whyte 115 155 30 129 89 Andrew Crawford 115 145 29 105 100 Tom Barry 102 156 35 124 101 Shane Hughes 105 150 35 122 98 Alan Reavie 121 150 45 100 94 Conor McGinn 102 154 35 118 91 Ian McClure 115 155 39 140 101 Seth Spiers 120 140 33 120 90 Ciaran Crowley 98 160 28 112 111 Derek Mooney 116 160 28 106 88 Steven Alexander 116 161 32 125 87 Alex Kane 120 160 35 127 83 D.J. Moore 106 157 33 123 90 Richard Barrington 103 162 32 114 97 Bernie Murray 105 162 33 121 95 Brian Cahill 105 155 32 124 88 John Sweeney 109 166 35 122 97 Tom Nolan 108 161 36 126 95 Damien McGlinchey 109 164 36 126 98 Peter Smyth 105 161 35 120 91 Paddy Hughes 100 150 30 131 113 Mick Dorgan 103 160 34 122 93 Tom Griffin 108 160 30 130 94 John O'Driscoll 97 166 26 124 108 Brian McFall 105 161 31 125 90 Howard Smith 99 143 32 128 110 Anthony Reavey 106 169 41 109 101 John Michaels 110 130 30 125 110 Cormac Daly 111 163 44 110 85 Philip Bogle 121 164 44 126 76 Martin Nelis 98 166 36 118 96 Ben Lowry 105 167 35 110 95 Eoin McBennett 97 165 37 108 102 Ivor Peksa 105 167 34 122 90 Ben Macken 102 166 34 123 93 Roy McGivern 116 169 35 122 79 Killian Forde 111 164 30 133 88 Anne Cadwallader 110 167 35 120 80 Roisin Conlan 111 176 41 130 104 P Mitchell & B O'Leary 105 134 41 128 111 Alan Sheeran 85 162 34 110 104 Liam O'Brien 86 163 39 123 103 Colin McIlheney 100 170 33 124 94 David Christopher 120 135 25 140 90 Eric Comber 98 167 36 124 91 Greg Wilson 98 163 45 104 94 John McElhinney 98 174 39 109 101 Roger Mac Ginty 103 179 36 124 97 Paul Linehan 100 175 40 130 100 Michael Moriarty 126 115 36 118 136 Mick Fealty 100 166 52 100 94 Barra Flynn 110 175 35 125 80 Nigel Thompson 95 175 29 125 96 Martijn Blom 110 195 30 125 110 Ciaran Crossey 105 175 35 130 90 Diarmuid Wilson 103 175 40 112 85 Bernard Cantillon 102 170 35 125 80 R McAuley 150 130 55 100 94 John Mac Canna 82 167 36 125 100 Finbar Clenaghan 100 170 35 125 82 Roar Madsen 100 175 34 128 92 Michael Devine 100 171 47 112 82 Keith Mills 105 168 25 135 80 Declan Butler 95 179 37 117 89 Conal Kelly 93 171 37 124 87 Brendan McDowell 98 175 30 128 89 Ciaran Irvine 105 128 30 142 102 Jack Kennedy 100 175 40 110 84 Gearóid MacSiacais 87 179 35 110 112 Giles Doherty 98 178 33 125 89 Allan Leonard 103 180 35 108 86 Ciaran Quinn 104 179 30 129 85 Jim Riley 98 173 36 123 78 Alan Daly 95 175 35 125 85 Rory Bradley 100 175 45 125 80 Ray French 140 110 60 130 95 Thomas McCullough 100 181 37 107 87 Pablo Douglas 85 185 27 124 98 William Houston 102 190 33 112 82 Timothy Johnston 91 180 41 120 80 Jimmy Donaghey 94 179 26 135 87 Alex Hanna 97 190 30 115 80 Colin Bradford 86 183 43 118 82 Tony McGreevy 89 181 49 126 85 Samantha McKelvey 91 196 31 120 90 Rodney Logan 95 182 37 135 82 Sean Hennessy 86 180 38 124 77 Christopher Daigle 86 196 35 122 92 Joseph Crilly 87 190 35 122 78 Darragh Doherty 78 185 37 130 82 Jeff Dudgeon 85 201 35 123 75 Jenny Muir 150 82 30 170 150 Conal Gillespie 131 156 30 110 104 Mark McLean 120 157 31 118 108
Contest began 25 May 2001; finished 13 June.
The Prediction Contests: 2004 | 2003 | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 | 1998
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Surveys of each recent election: 2004 European | 2003 Assembly | 2001 Westminster | 2001 local govt | 2000 S Antrim | 1999 European | 1998 Assembly | 1997 local govt | 1997 Westminster | 1996 Forum | 1995 N Down | 1994 European | 1993 local govt | 1992 Westminster | 1989 European | 1989 local govt | 1987 Westminster | 1986 by-elections | 1985 local govt | 1984 European | 1983 Westminster | 1982 Assembly | 1981 local govt | 1979 European | 1979 Westminster | 1977 local govt | 1975 Convention | Oct 1974 Westminster | Feb 1974 Westminster | 1973 Assembly | 1973 local govt | Summary of all Northern Ireland elections since 1973 | Brief summary of election results 1997-2003
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Nicholas Whyte, 25 May 2001; last modified 13 June; tables converted to text 27 Jan 2002.
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Nicholas Whyte 1998-2004 Last Updated on Wednesday, 12-Jan-2005 12:12
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