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I solicited predictions of the results of the elections via usenet, and received eight predictions from various netizens, which combined with my own predictions and a couple of newspaper projections to make up a fair amount of psephology. Nobody guessed the results completely correctly; in fact nobody really came close. In particular, the poor performance of the Alliance Party was picked up only by the Sunday Times; the UUP's poor showing was predicted only by Jerry Desmond, and similarly only Jerry Desmond predicted 18 seats for Sinn Féin (and the Sunday Business Post thought they would do even better). Only the Sunday Times expected even one seat, rather than two, for the Women's Coalition; only Keith Mills predicted that one of the independent Unionist candidates would be elected, and in fact three were; and while three punters gave the UKUP three seats, nobody thought they would win five.
Looking at individual constituencies, nobody expected the UKUP seats in South Antrim and Lagan Valley, or the UKUP and SDLP seats in East Antrim, or the independent Unionist victories in North Belfast and East Londonderry, or the Women's Coalition seat and third UUP seat in North Down, or the third Sinn Féin seat in Mid-Ulster, or the Alliance Party's failure to win in South Belfast. Congratulations to Keith Mills as the only person to correctly predict the outcome in Upper Bann, and to Jim Riley for spotting the DUP seat in Newry and Armagh. Keith got the outcome in eight constituencies exactly right, narrowly beating Jim's seven. At the other extreme everybody, apart from the Sunday Times opinion poll, correctly predicted the outcome in West Tyrone.
If there had been a prize for coming closest to the result, Keith would have had to share it with Brendan O'Leary and his colleagues; their prediction in the Sunday Business Post is uncannily accurate when compared with all the others. They correctly predicted two seats for the PUP and none for the UDP, were out by one seat for the UUP, SDLP, and Sinn Féin, and two for the other parties (and didn't expect the three other Unionists but then nobody did). Perhaps their psychic talents are wasted in academe. However there were no predictions for individual constituencies in the Sunday Business Post.
One final note. Most of the predictions I received were too optimistic for Alliance and the UUP, and too pessimistic for Sinn Féin, the UKUP, the Women's Coalition and the independent Unionists. Although this does reflect the conventional wisdom, I wonder if there is also a bit of a selection effect here. Perhaps if I were a Sinn Féin activist and had put this site on www.serve.com rather than an ex-Alliance activist the bias of the predictions sent to me would have been different.
I received predictions of the overall results from the following sources:
Overall result
ALL 6 DUP 20 PUP 2 SDL 24 SF 18 UDP 0 UKU 5 UUP 28 WC 2 Oth 3 NW: ALL 10 DUP 22 PUP 1 SDL 24 SF 16 UDP 0 UKU 1 UUP 34 WC 0 Oth 0 ST: ALL 6 DUP 16 PUP 5 SDL 32 SF 15 UDP 1 UKU 1 UUP 31 WC 1 Oth 0 SBP: ALL 8 DUP 22 PUP 2 SDL 25 SF 19 UDP 0 UKU 3 UUP 29 WC 0 Oth 0 CQ: ALL 8 DUP 23 PUP 3 SDL 23 SF 15 UDP 0 UKU 2 UUP 34 WC 0 Oth 0 SF: ALL 9 DUP 20 PUP 3 SDL 26 SF 13 UDP 1 UKU 1 UUP 35 WC 0 Oth 0 GL: ALL 9 DUP 20 PUP 3 SDL 27 SF 13 UDP 1 UKU 1 UUP 34 WC 0 Oth 0 JR: ALL 8 DUP 25 PUP 4 SDL 22 SF 16 UDP 0 UKU 3 UUP 30 WC 0 Oth 0 KM: ALL 8 DUP 22 PUP 2 SDL 26 SF 16 UDP 0 UKU 3 UUP 30 WC 0 Oth 1 DM: ALL 11 DUP 20 PUP 2 SDL 25 SF 16 UDP 1 UKU 1 UUP 32 WC 0 Oth 0 JD: ALL 11 DUP 24 PUP 1 SDL 25 SF 18 UDP 0 UKU 1 UUP 28 WC 0 Oth 0 TM: ALL 10 DUP 13 PUP 6 SDL 28 SF 15 UDP 0 UKU 1 UUP 35 WC 0 Oth 0 (Forum: ALL 7 DUP 24 LAB 2 PUP 2 SDL 21 SF 17 UDP 2 UKU 3 UUP 30 WC 2) Constituency-by-constituency predictions:Belfast East
Result: ALL 1 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 2 NW: ALL 2 DUP 2 UUP 2 ST: ALL 1 DUP 1 PUP 2 UUP 2 CQ: ALL 1 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 2 SF: ALL 1 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 2 GL: ALL 1 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 2 JR: ALL 1 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 2 KM: ALL 1 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 2 DM: ALL 2 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 1 JD: ALL 2 DUP 1 PUP 1 UUP 2 (Forum: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 2) No big surprise here.Belfast North
Result: DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 1 Oth 1 NW: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 2 ST: DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 CQ: DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 SF: DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 1 GL: DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 1 JR: ALL 1 DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 1 KM: DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 1 DM: DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 1 JD: DUP 2 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 1 (Forum: DUP 2 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 1) The success of 'Ulster Unionist' Fraser Agnew, and the failure of any of the three main parties (SDLP, SF, DUP) to win a second seat, made North Belfast one of the shock results of the election. The UUP polled a mere 10% in a seat which they represent at Westminster. North Belfast remains Northern Ireland's most fissiparous seat.Belfast South
Result: DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 WC 1 NW: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 ST: ALL 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 WC 1 CQ: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 SF: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 GL: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 JR: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 KM: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 DM: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 JD: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 (Forum: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 1 UUP 2) Most people expected that if the Women's Coalition made the breakthrough anywhere it would be here (of course only a few expected them to make the breakthrough at all; the rest of us were wrong). As it happened it was Alliance who lost out.Belfast West
Result: SDL 2 SF 4 NW: PUP 1 SDL 2 SF 3 ST: SDL 3 SF 3 CQ: SDL 2 SF 3 UUP 1 SF: PUP 1 SDL 2 SF 3 GL: PUP 1 SDL 3 SF 3 JR: PUP 1 SDL 2 SF 3 KM: SDL 3 SF 3 DM: SDL 2 SF 4 JD: SDL 2 SF 4 (Forum: SDL 1 SF 4) Again, not a huge surprise given recent election results.Antrim East
Result: ALL 1 DUP 2 SDL 1 UKU 1 UUP 2 NW: ALL 2 DUP 2 UUP 2 ST: ALL 2 DUP 1 UUP 3 CQ: ALL 1 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 2 SF: ALL 2 DUP 1 UUP 3 GL: ALL 2 DUP 1 UUP 3 JR: ALL 1 DUP 2 PUP 1 UUP 2 KM: ALL 2 DUP 2 UUP 2 DM: ALL 2 DUP 2 UUP 2 JD: ALL 2 DUP 2 UUP 2 (Forum: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 2) This was a major shock. On the first count it was clear that the UKUP had probably done well enough to take a seat, which in itself was surprising. But as transfers continued, the SDLP candidate, who had started eighth, overtook both the third UUP candidate and the second DUP candidate to take the final place, in an area where they have only one local councillor.Antrim North
Result: DUP 3 SDL 1 UUP 2 NW: DUP 3 SDL 1 UUP 2 ST: DUP 2 SDL 2 UUP 2 CQ: ALL 1 DUP 2 SDL 1 UUP 2 SF: DUP 3 SDL 1 UUP 2 GL: DUP 3 SDL 1 UUP 2 JR: DUP 3 SDL 1 UUP 2 KM: DUP 3 SDL 1 UUP 2 DM: DUP 2 SDL 1 UUP 3 JD: DUP 3 SDL 1 UUP 2 (Forum: DUP 2 SDL 1 UUP 2) No great surprise.Antrim South
Result: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 1 UKU 1 UUP 1 NW: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 1 UUP 3 ST: DUP 2 PUP 1 SDL 1 UUP 2 CQ: ALL 1 DUP 2 SDL 1 UUP 2 SF: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 1 UUP 3 GL: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 1 UUP 3 JR: DUP 3 SDL 1 UUP 2 KM: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 DM: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 1 UUP 3 JD: ALL 1 DUP 2 SDL 1 UUP 2 (Forum: DUP 2 SDL 1 UUP 2) One of several seats where the UKUP upset expectations.North Down
Result: ALL 1 UKU 1 UUP 3 WC 1 NW: ALL 2 DUP 1 UKU 1 UUP 2 ST: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 1 UKU 1 UUP 2 CQ: ALL 1 DUP 2 UKU 1 UUP 2 SF: ALL 2 DUP 1 UKU 1 UUP 2 GL: ALL 2 DUP 1 UKU 1 UUP 2 JR: ALL 1 DUP 1 UKU 2 UUP 2 KM: ALL 1 DUP 1 UKU 2 UUP 2 DM: ALL 2 DUP 1 UKU 1 UUP 2 JD: ALL 2 DUP 1 UKU 1 UUP 2 (Forum: ALL 1 DUP 1 UKU 1 UUP 2) The poor performance of the DUP, as well as the success of the Women's Coalition and the UUP's third seat, were all major surprises here. North Down is perhaps the most volatile constituency in Northern Ireland.South Down
Result: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 1 NW: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 1 ST: SDL 3 SF 2 UUP 1 CQ: SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 2 SF: SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 2 GL: SDL 4 UUP 2 JR: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 1 KM: SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 2 DM: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 1 JD: SDL 3 SF 2 UUP 1 (Forum: SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 1) Not a big surprise.Fermanagh and S. Tyrone
Result: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 2 UUP 2 NW: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 2 UUP 2 ST: SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 2 CQ: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 2 SF: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 2 GL: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 2 JR: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 2 UUP 2 KM: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 2 UUP 2 DM: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 2 JD: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 2 UUP 2 (Forum: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2) No big surprise.Foyle
Result: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 2 NW: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 2 ST: DUP 1 SDL 4 SF 1 CQ: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 1 SF: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 1 GL: SDL 3 SF 2 UUP 1 JR: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 1 KM: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 2 DM: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 2 JD: DUP 1 SDL 3 SF 2 (Forum: SDL 3 SF 2) No big surprise.Lagan Valley
Result: ALL 1 DUP 1 SDL 1 UKU 1 UUP 2 NW: ALL 1 DUP 1 UUP 4 ST: ALL 1 DUP 2 UDP 1 UUP 2 CQ: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 3 SF: ALL 1 DUP 1 UDP 1 UUP 3 GL: ALL 1 DUP 1 UDP 1 UUP 3 JR: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 3 KM: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 3 DM: ALL 1 DUP 1 UDP 1 UUP 3 JD: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 3 (Forum: DUP 2 UUP 3) Unexpected success for both SDLP and UKUP; failure for both UUP and UDP. Another surprising result.East Londonderry
Result: DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 2 Oth 1 NW: DUP 2 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 ST: DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 3 CQ: DUP 2 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 SF: DUP 2 SDL 2 UUP 2 GL: DUP 2 SDL 2 UUP 2 JR: DUP 2 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 KM: DUP 2 SDL 1 UUP 3 DM: DUP 1 SDL 2 UUP 3 JD: DUP 2 SDL 2 UUP 2 (Forum: DUP 2 SDL 1 UUP 2) Another unexpected success for a dissident Unionist.Mid Ulster
Result: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 3 UUP 1 NW: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 ST: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 CQ: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 SF: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 GL: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 JR: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 KM: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 DM: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 JD: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 (Forum: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 2 UUP 1) The third Sinn Féin seat took everyone by surprise, though it had been presaged in Martin McGuinness' victory in the 1997 Westminster election.Newry and Armagh
Result: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 NW: SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 2 ST: SDL 3 SF 2 UUP 1 SF: SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 2 CQ: SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 2 GL: SDL 3 SF 1 UUP 2 JR: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 KM: SDL 3 SF 2 UUP 1 DM: SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 2 JD: SDL 3 SF 2 UUP 1 (Forum: SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1) A good result for the DUP. It is not so very long since the UUP held this parliamentary seat!Strangford
Result: ALL 1 DUP 2 UKU 1 UUP 2 NW: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 3 ST: DUP 1 PUP 1 SDL 1 UUP 3 CQ: ALL 1 DUP 2 UKU 1 UUP 2 SF: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 3 GL: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 3 JR: ALL 1 DUP 2 UKU 1 UUP 2 KM: ALL 1 DUP 2 UKU 1 UUP 2 DM: ALL 2 DUP 2 UUP 2 JD: ALL 2 DUP 2 UUP 2 (Forum: ALL 1 DUP 2 UUP 2) This was always the second most likely seat for the UKUP.West Tyrone
Result: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 NW: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 ST: SDL 3 SF 2 UUP 1 CQ: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 SF: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 GL: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 JR: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 KM: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 DM: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 JD: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 2 UUP 1 (Forum: DUP 1 SDL 2 SF 1 UUP 1) Pleasing unanimity (apart from the Sunday Times)! Another constituency where the UUP won only one out of six despite holding the parliamentary seat.Upper Bann
Result: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 Oth 1 NW: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 3 Oth 0 ST: DUP 2 SDL 2 UUP 2 Oth 0 CQ: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 3 Oth 0 SF: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 3 Oth 0 GL: DUP 2 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 Oth 0 JR: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 3 Oth 0 KM: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 Oth 1 DM: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 3 Oth 0 JD: DUP 2 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 Oth 0 (Forum: DUP 1 SDL 1 SF 1 UUP 2 Oth 0) Another dissident Unionist success.
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Nicholas Whyte, 15 June 1998; modified 29 June
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Nicholas Whyte 1998-2004 Last Updated on Wednesday, 12-Jan-2005 12:12
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