The 2000 South Antrim byelection: Predictions

Predictions

	DUP	UUP	Alliance	NLP	SDLP	SF
Actual Result	37.95%	35.26%	6.64%	0.16%	11.44%	8.54%
David Boothroyd	33%	36%	7%	0%	15%	9%
Noel Horgan	35%	35%	5%	0%	10%	15%
Karl McClean	36%	32%	5%	0%	16%	11%
Wesley Johnston Samantha Carnduff-McKelvey	30% 30%	35% 35%	10% 10%	0% 0%	15% 15%	10% 10%
John Mac Canna	31%	34%	7%	1%	19%	8%
Sean Fear	30%	35%	10%	0%	11%	14%
Keith Mills	30%	35%	10%	0%	17%	8%
Ruairi McCourt	29%	35%	10%	0%	17%	9%
Peter J. Callanan	29%	38%	8%	0%	17%	8%
Gerard Barry	29%	37%	6%	0%	17%	11%
Philip Vial	33%	31%	6%	2%	12%	16%
Jerry Desmond	31%	33%	11%	0%	17%	8%
Nicholas Whyte	31%	33%	5%	0%	16%	15%
Joshua Holman	36%	41%	4%	1%	16%	2%
Richard Bullick	32%	30%	10%	1%	13%	14%
Ciaran Quinn	30%	43%	4%	0%	15%	8%
Conal Kelly Paul Linehan	29% 27%	33% 35%	9% 8%	0% 0%	19% 18%	10% 12%
Mick Dorgan	32%	28%	12%	0%	16%	12%
Gerry Lynch	33%	26%	11%	<0.5%	14%	16%
Martijn Blom	24%	39%	6%	0%	17%	14%
Thomas McCullough	23.3%	38.69%	15.1%	0%	13%	9.91%
Michael Moriarty	31%	26%	10%	0%	17.5%	15.5%

The most accurate prediction was made by David Boothroyd, who was within 1% for four of the six parties. Congratulations, David!

This was the most interest I had had in the three rounds of election predictions run since this web-site started. The 1998 Assembly elections generated nine predictions (plus a few more that I gleaned from newspaper reports); the 1999 European election, granted a much more boring event, generated only six. This time I had twenty-four entries, including my own.

Only six out of twenty-four actually predicted that McCrea would win, so take a bow, Richard Bullick, Gerry Lynch, Karl McClean, Mick Dorgan, Michael Moriarty, and Philip Vial. Of these only Richard Bullick and Philip Vial came close to predicting the actual margin of victory, though both considerably underestimated the total Unionist vote. (Only Ciaran Quinn predicted the total Unionist vote share correctly at 73%; everyone else except Joshua Holman underestimated it).

McCrea's vote share of 37.95% came as a surprise to everyone. Joshua Holman and Karl McClean had both predicted that it might be as high as 36%, everyone else expected less. Burnside's 35.26% was more within the range of people's expectations and six people actually guessed 35% - Keith Mills, Noel Horgan, Paul Linehan, Ruairi McCourt, Samantha Carnduff-McKelvey, Sean Fear and Wesley Johnston. An honorable mention should go to David Boothroyd, who guessed 36%. All however expected Burnside to win with this vote share (apart from Noel Horgan who predicted a dead heat).

The SDLP's 11.44% was most closely anticipated by Sean Fear's 11%, with Philip Vial's 12% a not too distant second. Only Noel Horgan anticipated a lower SDLP vote. Nobody expected the SDLP to manage third place despite such a low vote share. David Boothroyd and Ruairi McCourt both predicted 9% for SF and so were closest to the actual 8.54%; honorable mentions to Ciaran Quinn, Jerry Desmond, John Mac Canna, Keith Mills, and Peter J. Callanan who all went for 8%. David Boothroyd and John Mac Canna both came closest to Alliance's 6.64% with their guesses of 7%; Gerard Barry, Martijn Blom and Philip Vial all had 6%. A few people rather overestimated the Natural Law Party's support.

The final results of the contest are ranked by the average absolute variance from the result. The top three predictions were from Karl McClean (2.34%); Noel Horgan (2.15%); and the winner, David Boothroyd (1.70%) who was within 1% for four out of six parties. (Weighting by the share of votes actually gained by each party would just have put Noel Horgan in front of David and caused minor changes elsewhere.) Congratulations to David, and thanks to everyone else for participating.

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Nicholas Whyte, 16 February 2002.

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