The 2024 Westminster Elections in Northern Ireland

The Elections

The 2024 UK general election was held on Thursday, 4 July. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced the election on 22 May, catching many by surprise, with a contest in October or November widely thought to have been more likely. After 14 years in power, the Conservatives were punished at the polls, losing over 250 seats in a landslide victory for the Labour Party. With just under 34% of the vote, Labour managed to accumulate a massive 411 seats.

In Northern Ireland, the election result held more than a few surprises. This was a very good election for Sinn Fein, if without the breakthrough successes of previous years. They were comfortably the largest party, held all their seats with increased votes, and came close to pulling off an upset in East Londonderry. Their rivals in the DUP, however, had a terrible election, coming after the accusations against former leader Jeffrey Donaldson, but also after a confused approach to post-Brexit governance. They lost seats to Alliance, the UUP and the TUV.

This was not as good an election for Alliance as some had expected. They picked up Lagan Valley from the DUP, but lost North Down to independent Unionist Alex Easton, and also failed to make headway in East Belfast. Their vote share was slightly down. This was a reassuring election for the UUP. Their vote share increased slightly but most importantly they regained South Antrim. There is a big difference between having no MPs, and having even just one. For the SDLP, it was not as good as it initially looked. They held their two seats but with reduced majorities, and fell back badly elsewhere.

This was a good election for the TUV, who claimed the scalp of Ian Paisley in North Antrim. Their vote was solid in most constituencies, though usually not quite at the level to challenge for an Assembly seat. This was also a good election for Alex Easton, who having topped the poll in North Down at the last five Assembly elections now gets to represent the constituency at Westminster.

The Results

Below are the summary results from the general election held on 4 July 2024. Candidate level results will be available on the individual constituency pages linked below.

map

This map shows the winner in each constituency in 2024

Majorities

This chart shows the winning party majority in each constituency in 2024

The details of each seat are on the relevant page; the totals for the whole of Northern Ireland were as follows:

Party / Candidate Votes % Share (+/-) Seats Won
SF 210,891 27.0% +4.2%
 7 MPs (-) (North Belfast, West Belfast, South Down, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Mid Ulster, Newry and Armagh, and West Tyrone)
DUP
 172,058 22.1%
 -8.5%
 5 MPs (-3)
 (East Belfast, East Antrim, East Londonderry, Strangford and Upper Bann)
Alliance 117,191 15.0% -1.8%
 1 MP (-)
 (Lagan Valley)
UUP 94,779
 12.2% +0.5%
 1 MP (+1) (South Antrim)
SDLP 86,861
 11.1% -3.8%
 2 MPs (-) (South Belfast and Foyle)
TUV 48,685
 6.2% +6.2%
 1 MP (+1) (North Antrim)
Alex Easton (North Down) 20,913
 2.7% +2.7%
 1 MP (+1) (North Down)
Green Party
 8,692
 1.1%
 +0.9%

People Before Profit 8,438
 1.1%
 +0.2%

Aontu
 7,466
 1.0%
 -0.2%

Anne McCloskey (Foyle)
 1,519
 0.2%
 -


CCLA
 624
 0.1%
 -


Conservatives
 553
 0.1%
 -0.6%

Garreth Falls (Strangford)
 256
 0.03%


John Kelly (Mid Ulster)
 181
 0.02%


Ryan North (East Belfast)
 162
 0.02%


Tony Mallon (West Belfast)
 161
 0.02%


Gareth Burns (Strangford)
 157
 0.02%


Tristan Morrow (North Antrim)
 136
 0.02%


Chris Carter (North Down)
 117
 0.02%



Electorate 1,363,961; votes cast 783,909 (57.5%); spoilt votes 4,069 (0.5%); valid votes 779,840 (99.5%).

Previous Westminster Elections


graph

The Boundary Changes

The 2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies established new boundaries for this election, following the abandonment of several previous reviews since 2015. The Review resulted in a reduction of 50 seats across the UK but Norhern Ireland managed to retain its allocation of 18, albeit with varying degrees of alteration. One of the more notable changes was the significant expansion of South Belfast into its rural hinterland and renaming to Belfast South and Mid Down.

The new boundaries took legal effect on 29 November 2023. Although the total number of constituencies in Northern Ireland remained unchanged at 18, adjustments Were needed to ensure that certain electorates fell within the allowable range and that boundaries aligned with the revised local government wards. The maps below outline the changes.

map

This map shows the new constituency boundaries for 2024

map

This map shows the new Belfast boundaries

The changes in Northern Ireland are the least dramatic since the 1970s. The 1983 review added five new constituencies, taking the total from 12 to 17; the 1996 review added another, making a total of 18; and the 2007 review expanded the Belfast seats outwards with knock-on effects all around the map. There were also two failed reviews, one in 2013 which fell victim to the internal politics of the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition, and one in 2018-20 which was quashed by the Belfast courts for failing to adequately consider public opinion at the final stage of revision (and the whole thing was then killed off by Boris Johnson).

So this is the first change to the Westminster constituencies for 17 years, the longest gap since the 1950-70 period. In Northern Ireland the Westminster boundaries are also used for Assembly elections, and indeed in 1973 and 1996, regional level elections used the new boundaries first. Personally I think that the Assembly constituencies should be linked to the Local Government Districts rather than the Westminster seats, but that's for another day.

Every seat is changed this time, but few of the changes are drastic. In each of the constituency pages linked above, you will be able to see boundary adjustments along with the notional votes that correspond closely to whatever the reality might have been if the 2019 general election votes had been cast on the 2024 boundaries.

boundary adjustments

This map shows the constituency boundary adjustments

Other sites based at ARK: ORB (Online Research Bank) | CAIN (Conflict Archive on the INternet) | Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey

Your comments, please! Send an email to me at nicholas.whyte@gmail.com.

Created by Nicholas Whyte and Conal Kelly, 5 July 2024.



Disclaimer: Nicholas Whyte 2005 Last Updated on Sunday, 09-May-2010 21:59